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Who's doing theoretical vs. actual ERA for 2005?

PostPosted: Mon Jul 11, 2005 5:17 pm
by The Jury
I know LBJackal did it last year using K, BB, and HR as main contributing factors. (http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=91977)

I'm interested in seeing the same results for 2005.

Is someone going to do it? I'm too much of a newbie to crunch the numbers :~(

PostPosted: Mon Jul 11, 2005 5:55 pm
by Amazinz
Jackal had his own formula he was working on but the basic premise was similar to DIPS. ESPN lists both actual ERA alongside dERA and ERC (component ERA). I believe BP publishes similar stats also so there's no reason to do the number crunching. ;-D

PostPosted: Mon Jul 11, 2005 8:09 pm
by The Jury
Can you link me to this treasure please? :-D

PostPosted: Mon Jul 11, 2005 8:40 pm
by Amazinz

PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:38 am
by LBJackal
I'll post this year's actual ERA's vs Theoretical ERA's when I have the time. Actually it shouldn't take long so maybe I can get it done quickly as long as Doug Stats is still up and running.

PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:40 am
by LBJackal
OK here it is, sorted with the unluckiest pitchers at the top. The outlook is good for John Lackey:

Player, ERA, Theory ERA, Differential

greinke,zack 6.21 4.37 1.42
kennedy,joe 7.04 5.29 1.33
lackey,john 4.22 3.22 1.31
vazquez,javier 4.54 3.47 1.31
ponson,sidney 5.96 4.60 1.30
nomo,hideo 6.80 5.31 1.28
hendrickson,mar 6.33 4.98 1.27
fossum,casey 4.44 3.49 1.27
park,chan_ho 5.46 4.31 1.26
tomko,brett 5.03 4.06 1.24
cabrera,daniel 4.91 4.00 1.23
santana,johan 3.99 3.25 1.23
harang,aaron 4.12 3.39 1.22
glavine,tom 4.94 4.07 1.22
leiter,al 6.64 5.50 1.21
lima,jose 7.35 6.16 1.19
francis,jeff 5.18 4.42 1.17
wells,david 5.00 4.27 1.17
lidle,cory 3.65 3.11 1.17
schmidt,jason 5.03 4.30 1.17
moyer,jamie 4.66 4.01 1.16
waechter,doug 5.58 4.82 1.16
pineiro,joel 5.44 4.72 1.15
morris,matt 3.11 2.71 1.15
sabathia,c.c. 4.50 3.94 1.14
penny,brad 3.43 3.05 1.12
towers,josh 4.53 4.04 1.12
clement,matt 3.85 3.43 1.12
kazmir,scott 4.59 4.09 1.12
maddux,greg 4.69 4.20 1.12
loaiza,esteban 3.58 3.21 1.12
peavy,jake 3.16 2.84 1.11
westbrook,jake 4.69 4.24 1.10
martinez,pedro 2.72 2.47 1.10
beckett,josh 3.37 3.06 1.10
burnett,a.j. 3.34 3.04 1.10
milton,eric 6.95 6.34 1.10
lowry,noah 5.10 4.65 1.10
haren,danny 4.09 3.74 1.09
lohse,kyle 4.44 4.16 1.07
rueter,kirk 5.49 5.14 1.07
jennings,jason 5.24 4.92 1.07
weaver,jeff 4.45 4.19 1.06
lilly,ted 5.42 5.10 1.06
byrd,paul 3.75 3.53 1.06
halsey,brad 4.28 4.07 1.05
meche,gil 4.85 4.62 1.05
lawrence,brian 4.15 3.97 1.05
backe,brandon 5.07 4.85 1.04
mulder,mark 4.34 4.17 1.04
johnson,randy 4.17 4.02 1.04
hernandez,runel 4.54 4.42 1.03
arroyo,bronson 4.04 3.93 1.03
saarloos,kirk 3.88 3.78 1.03
wright,jamey 5.25 5.13 1.02
webb,brandon 3.57 3.51 1.02
colon,bartolo 3.43 3.37 1.02
lowe,derek 4.00 3.94 1.02
pettitte,andy 3.10 3.11 1.00
young,chris 4.01 4.03 0.99
lopez,rodrigo 4.49 4.52 0.99
ortiz,ramon 6.37 6.41 0.99
ortiz,russ 5.88 5.93 0.99
sele,aaron 4.72 4.77 0.99
lieber,jon 5.10 5.16 0.99
redman,mark 3.77 3.82 0.99
pavano,carl 4.77 4.85 0.98
estes,shawn 4.58 4.65 0.98
perez,oliver 6.17 6.28 0.98
bonderman,jerem 4.01 4.10 0.98
zambrano,carlos 3.86 3.95 0.98
elarton,scott 4.73 4.88 0.97
blanton,joe 4.45 4.65 0.96
williams,woody 4.10 4.31 0.95
zito,barry 3.91 4.11 0.95
suppan,jeff 4.21 4.43 0.95
eaton,adam 3.44 3.62 0.95
davis,doug 4.12 4.35 0.95
radke,brad 4.15 4.43 0.94
johnson,jason 3.87 4.13 0.94
carpenter,chris 2.51 2.69 0.93
rusch,glendon 3.88 4.17 0.93
zambrano,victor 3.58 3.85 0.93
mussina,mike 3.98 4.28 0.93
garcia,freddy 3.53 3.83 0.92
wolf,randy 4.39 4.77 0.92
hernandez,livan 3.49 3.81 0.92
wang,chien-ming 3.90 4.26 0.92
lee,cliff 3.91 4.27 0.91
franklin,ryan 4.37 4.80 0.91
chacin,gustavo 3.58 3.93 0.91
maroth,mike 4.19 4.63 0.91
garland,jon 3.38 3.73 0.90
wakefield,tim 4.07 4.51 0.90
benson,kris 3.66 4.06 0.90
smoltz,john 2.81 3.14 0.90
wells,kip 4.46 5.01 0.89
ramirez,horacio 4.67 5.28 0.88
willis,dontrell 2.39 2.71 0.88
myers,brett 3.21 3.65 0.88
hudson,tim 3.80 4.34 0.88
fogg,josh 4.32 4.94 0.87
millwood,kevin 3.58 4.12 0.87
buehrle,mark 2.58 2.98 0.86
chen,bruce 3.88 4.50 0.86
patterson,john 2.93 3.40 0.86
robertson,nate 3.35 3.92 0.86
contreras,jose 4.27 5.08 0.84
williams,dave 4.39 5.23 0.84
marquis,jason 3.89 4.67 0.83
moehler,brian 3.27 3.96 0.83
claussen,brando 3.62 4.39 0.82
silva,carlos 3.55 4.30 0.82
mays,joe 4.13 5.03 0.82
capuano,chris 3.64 4.46 0.82
sheets,ben 3.41 4.20 0.81
washburn,jarrod 3.24 4.19 0.77
halladay,roy 2.42 3.15 0.77
oswalt,roy 2.46 3.29 0.75
santos,victor 3.50 4.78 0.73
rogers,kenny 2.55 4.11 0.62
clemens,roger 1.48 2.81 0.53

PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:14 am
by baseballnewb
Could you tell us how you decided the theoretical ERA? Does it include the home park factors, the parks they have pitched in as visitors, the home defense etc?

PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:55 am
by KolbSaves
Or you can just use THT's xFIP and xFIP-ERA.

PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:57 am
by The Jury
Amazinz wrote:ESPN ;-)


Not sure where to go exactly.. ESPN is a huge site... :-?

PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:02 pm
by Steve-o
The Jury wrote:
Amazinz wrote:ESPN ;-)


Not sure where to go exactly.. ESPN is a huge site... :-?


At espn go to the baseball homepage. Then click on statistics across the top. Once there select MLB (or all) Pitchers. Then you can select various displays for the stats, one of them being sabermetric (abbreviated - sab.).