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Who's doing theoretical vs. actual ERA for 2005?

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Who's doing theoretical vs. actual ERA for 2005?

Postby The Jury » Mon Jul 11, 2005 5:17 pm

I know LBJackal did it last year using K, BB, and HR as main contributing factors. (http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=91977)

I'm interested in seeing the same results for 2005.

Is someone going to do it? I'm too much of a newbie to crunch the numbers :~(
The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.
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Postby Amazinz » Mon Jul 11, 2005 5:55 pm

Jackal had his own formula he was working on but the basic premise was similar to DIPS. ESPN lists both actual ERA alongside dERA and ERC (component ERA). I believe BP publishes similar stats also so there's no reason to do the number crunching. ;-D
Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
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Postby The Jury » Mon Jul 11, 2005 8:09 pm

Can you link me to this treasure please? :-D
The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.
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Postby Amazinz » Mon Jul 11, 2005 8:40 pm

Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:38 am

I'll post this year's actual ERA's vs Theoretical ERA's when I have the time. Actually it shouldn't take long so maybe I can get it done quickly as long as Doug Stats is still up and running.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:40 am

OK here it is, sorted with the unluckiest pitchers at the top. The outlook is good for John Lackey:

Player, ERA, Theory ERA, Differential

greinke,zack 6.21 4.37 1.42
kennedy,joe 7.04 5.29 1.33
lackey,john 4.22 3.22 1.31
vazquez,javier 4.54 3.47 1.31
ponson,sidney 5.96 4.60 1.30
nomo,hideo 6.80 5.31 1.28
hendrickson,mar 6.33 4.98 1.27
fossum,casey 4.44 3.49 1.27
park,chan_ho 5.46 4.31 1.26
tomko,brett 5.03 4.06 1.24
cabrera,daniel 4.91 4.00 1.23
santana,johan 3.99 3.25 1.23
harang,aaron 4.12 3.39 1.22
glavine,tom 4.94 4.07 1.22
leiter,al 6.64 5.50 1.21
lima,jose 7.35 6.16 1.19
francis,jeff 5.18 4.42 1.17
wells,david 5.00 4.27 1.17
lidle,cory 3.65 3.11 1.17
schmidt,jason 5.03 4.30 1.17
moyer,jamie 4.66 4.01 1.16
waechter,doug 5.58 4.82 1.16
pineiro,joel 5.44 4.72 1.15
morris,matt 3.11 2.71 1.15
sabathia,c.c. 4.50 3.94 1.14
penny,brad 3.43 3.05 1.12
towers,josh 4.53 4.04 1.12
clement,matt 3.85 3.43 1.12
kazmir,scott 4.59 4.09 1.12
maddux,greg 4.69 4.20 1.12
loaiza,esteban 3.58 3.21 1.12
peavy,jake 3.16 2.84 1.11
westbrook,jake 4.69 4.24 1.10
martinez,pedro 2.72 2.47 1.10
beckett,josh 3.37 3.06 1.10
burnett,a.j. 3.34 3.04 1.10
milton,eric 6.95 6.34 1.10
lowry,noah 5.10 4.65 1.10
haren,danny 4.09 3.74 1.09
lohse,kyle 4.44 4.16 1.07
rueter,kirk 5.49 5.14 1.07
jennings,jason 5.24 4.92 1.07
weaver,jeff 4.45 4.19 1.06
lilly,ted 5.42 5.10 1.06
byrd,paul 3.75 3.53 1.06
halsey,brad 4.28 4.07 1.05
meche,gil 4.85 4.62 1.05
lawrence,brian 4.15 3.97 1.05
backe,brandon 5.07 4.85 1.04
mulder,mark 4.34 4.17 1.04
johnson,randy 4.17 4.02 1.04
hernandez,runel 4.54 4.42 1.03
arroyo,bronson 4.04 3.93 1.03
saarloos,kirk 3.88 3.78 1.03
wright,jamey 5.25 5.13 1.02
webb,brandon 3.57 3.51 1.02
colon,bartolo 3.43 3.37 1.02
lowe,derek 4.00 3.94 1.02
pettitte,andy 3.10 3.11 1.00
young,chris 4.01 4.03 0.99
lopez,rodrigo 4.49 4.52 0.99
ortiz,ramon 6.37 6.41 0.99
ortiz,russ 5.88 5.93 0.99
sele,aaron 4.72 4.77 0.99
lieber,jon 5.10 5.16 0.99
redman,mark 3.77 3.82 0.99
pavano,carl 4.77 4.85 0.98
estes,shawn 4.58 4.65 0.98
perez,oliver 6.17 6.28 0.98
bonderman,jerem 4.01 4.10 0.98
zambrano,carlos 3.86 3.95 0.98
elarton,scott 4.73 4.88 0.97
blanton,joe 4.45 4.65 0.96
williams,woody 4.10 4.31 0.95
zito,barry 3.91 4.11 0.95
suppan,jeff 4.21 4.43 0.95
eaton,adam 3.44 3.62 0.95
davis,doug 4.12 4.35 0.95
radke,brad 4.15 4.43 0.94
johnson,jason 3.87 4.13 0.94
carpenter,chris 2.51 2.69 0.93
rusch,glendon 3.88 4.17 0.93
zambrano,victor 3.58 3.85 0.93
mussina,mike 3.98 4.28 0.93
garcia,freddy 3.53 3.83 0.92
wolf,randy 4.39 4.77 0.92
hernandez,livan 3.49 3.81 0.92
wang,chien-ming 3.90 4.26 0.92
lee,cliff 3.91 4.27 0.91
franklin,ryan 4.37 4.80 0.91
chacin,gustavo 3.58 3.93 0.91
maroth,mike 4.19 4.63 0.91
garland,jon 3.38 3.73 0.90
wakefield,tim 4.07 4.51 0.90
benson,kris 3.66 4.06 0.90
smoltz,john 2.81 3.14 0.90
wells,kip 4.46 5.01 0.89
ramirez,horacio 4.67 5.28 0.88
willis,dontrell 2.39 2.71 0.88
myers,brett 3.21 3.65 0.88
hudson,tim 3.80 4.34 0.88
fogg,josh 4.32 4.94 0.87
millwood,kevin 3.58 4.12 0.87
buehrle,mark 2.58 2.98 0.86
chen,bruce 3.88 4.50 0.86
patterson,john 2.93 3.40 0.86
robertson,nate 3.35 3.92 0.86
contreras,jose 4.27 5.08 0.84
williams,dave 4.39 5.23 0.84
marquis,jason 3.89 4.67 0.83
moehler,brian 3.27 3.96 0.83
claussen,brando 3.62 4.39 0.82
silva,carlos 3.55 4.30 0.82
mays,joe 4.13 5.03 0.82
capuano,chris 3.64 4.46 0.82
sheets,ben 3.41 4.20 0.81
washburn,jarrod 3.24 4.19 0.77
halladay,roy 2.42 3.15 0.77
oswalt,roy 2.46 3.29 0.75
santos,victor 3.50 4.78 0.73
rogers,kenny 2.55 4.11 0.62
clemens,roger 1.48 2.81 0.53
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Postby baseballnewb » Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:14 am

Could you tell us how you decided the theoretical ERA? Does it include the home park factors, the parks they have pitched in as visitors, the home defense etc?
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Postby KolbSaves » Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:55 am

Or you can just use THT's xFIP and xFIP-ERA.
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Postby The Jury » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:57 am

Amazinz wrote:ESPN ;-)


Not sure where to go exactly.. ESPN is a huge site... :-?
The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.
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Postby Steve-o » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:02 pm

The Jury wrote:
Amazinz wrote:ESPN ;-)


Not sure where to go exactly.. ESPN is a huge site... :-?


At espn go to the baseball homepage. Then click on statistics across the top. Once there select MLB (or all) Pitchers. Then you can select various displays for the stats, one of them being sabermetric (abbreviated - sab.).
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