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A's sign Kotsay to 3-year extension...

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Postby so0perspam » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:53 am

I'm completely with RAmst23 on this one, being a statistician myself. A guy whose primary forte is his defense does not deserve that kind of money. Kotsay is a nice role player who will contribute to a team's success, but definitely not the $8 mil a year player. If he's so good as some of you claim, where are the numbers? Like RAmst23 mentioned, a .278 BA, .334 OBP and a .731 OPS does not warrant a contract anywhere near that size. A certain free agent named Alex Sanchez that the Giants picked up is batting .346 with a .373 OBP and a .839 OPS. How much did he cost them? $295,956.
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Postby Irish » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:49 am

Kotsay rhymes with Schmotsay.
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Postby GSes » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:27 pm

davidmarver wrote:Kotsay's one the best outfielders in the game; there's not one category in which he's below average. Last year he led the A's in win shares with 22; the same amount as Travis Hafner, Curt Schilling, Aramis Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera, and Jim Thome. I'm sure they all deserve 2 year $15,000,000 contracts. Even with Kotsay's lackluster hitting statistics so far this year he still has the same amount of Win Shares as Andruw Jones; this re-enforces my theory on how much Mark Kotsay does 'the little things'. (My past comments can be read in the 'Dear Brian Cashman thread': http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... p?t=143406). Looking at fielding win shares, Mark Kotsay ranks fifth for all outfielders, behind Brady Clark, Vernon Wells, Carlos Beltran, and Jeremy Reed; Kotsay has more hitting win shares than those afformentioned four. Besides all this, Kotsay is a pretty pure hitter as is. He ranks second in the AL for line-drive percentage behind Brian Roberts and directly ahead of Michael Young. Not bad company. Kotsay doesn't get very much respect because what he stands out in doesn't have very much statistical prowess, but he's still one of the games premier centerfielders. Don't be fooled into believing otherwise.


could not have said it better myself ;-D
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Postby GSes » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:33 pm

A's have now locked up
Chavez
Harden
Crosby
and
Kotsay to multi year deals, they are showing a commitment that has not been seen the last few years
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Postby beltrans_boy » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:34 pm

so0perspam wrote:I'm completely with RAmst23 on this one, being a statistician myself. A guy whose primary forte is his defense does not deserve that kind of money. Kotsay is a nice role player who will contribute to a team's success, but definitely not the $8 mil a year player. If he's so good as some of you claim, where are the numbers? Like RAmst23 mentioned, a .278 BA, .334 OBP and a .731 OPS does not warrant a contract anywhere near that size. A certain free agent named Alex Sanchez that the Giants picked up is batting .346 with a .373 OBP and a .839 OPS. How much did he cost them? $295,956.

Mark Kotsay is currently tied with Derek Jeter, Hideki Matsui and Hank Blalock in 2005 Win Shares with 11. In fact, he has more batting Win Shares (8) than Ichiro, Hank Blalock, and Alfonso Soriano. He's not exactly a slouch at the plate.

Last year, he had 22 Win Shares which was the same as Miguel Cabrera, Jim Thome, Curt Schilling and Pudge Rodriguez.

That's some pretty nice company, for a "nice role player" wouldn't you say?

He's a consistant performer, a plus defender and no slouch with the bat. It is a little surprising to see the A's spend market price to resign one of their players, but to say they overpaid for Kotsay is ridiculous. Kotsay deserves every penny of that $8 million contract.

Comparing Alex Sanchez to Mark Kotsay is so ridiculous it doesn't even warrant a response. Kotsay is a top-50 position player, Alex Sanchez is barely major league caliber.
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Postby so0perspam » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:52 pm

What is up with the Win Share argument?? Win Shares are not at all a good criteria for evaluating a player's true talent, so using them as a basis to argue that Kotsay deserved that contract doesn't make sense, because Win Shares do NOT forecast a player's future performance.
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Postby beltrans_boy » Sun Jul 10, 2005 5:19 pm

so0perspam wrote:What is up with the Win Share argument?? Win Shares are not at all a good criteria for evaluating a player's true talent, so using them as a basis to argue that Kotsay deserved that contract doesn't make sense, because Win Shares do NOT forecast a player's future performance.

You're right, but neither do batting average, OBP and OPS. Win Shares do show that he's consistently been a top-50 player for the last 5 or 6 years. There's no reason to forcast much of a dropoff (if any). Nobody's arguing that Kotsay is a superstar in the making, or that he's going to improve tremendously over the next 3 years. He's an above average left-handed hitter who got an above average contract.

You and RAmst23 are saying that his numbers (.278, .334, .731) are mediocre, and I'm using Win Shares to show you that you're incorrect. Kotsay has been far more effective than his conventional numbers indicate.

In my opinion (with a player in the prime of his career, like Kotsay), the best way to predict future performance is by examining past performance. Win Shares show that Kotsay has been an above average player for most of his career. Do you really expect a significant regression in the next 3 years?
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Postby SlightlyStoopid » Sun Jul 10, 2005 5:43 pm

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:I thought there was talk of A's ownership changing hands, or did I completely dream that up? :-? If that's the case Beane may be locking up some of his pricier players now, perhaps? :-?



There was an ownership change before this season began and they have gone on record saying that if opportunity creates itself to spend some money to make this team better then it's not out of the question.

Personally, as an A's fan, this is an awsome extension and something the fan community think was a much needed move for the long term health of the team. Kotsay does have many of those intangibles that don't come out on paper. This team is still young and kotsay is among the few veterans on this team that balances this team out. This extension is no more money then he was already getting and Kotsay has said he wanted to make sure he played on a team with playoff aspirations.
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Postby so0perspam » Sun Jul 10, 2005 5:45 pm

I just don't buy the Win Shares system at all. Most any Major League player has decent fielding abilities and can get the job done. It's not like they're seeing a Sportscenter Top 10 opportunity every game. Defense is more important in basketball and football than in baseball. Defense playing a considerbale part in the calculation of Win Shares is one of the reasons I believe the system is flawed. In the history of the Win Shares system, shortstops and catchers receive positional advantages, and so do strikeout pitchers and star relievers. And what about great DH's like David Ortiz that don't play defense? Their Win Shares total is significantly reduced. Using OBP and OPS is a definitive and reliable source, being that they are dependable statistics that don't fluctuate for any reason outside of how the player performs. You look at a player like Kotsay who has a .278 BA, .334 OBP and .731 OPS, and you call him a top 50 player? No way.
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Postby dannyolbb » Sun Jul 10, 2005 5:46 pm

Does this mean that the A's are going to go for the playoffs this year? I had thought they might sell off assets at the trading deadline, but perhaps they'll be buyers rather than sellers.
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