The Loveable Losers wrote:Some numbers that I've seen for Lee...
He's hitting 1/4 of his fly balls out of the park (vs an average for players of 11%...don't have the numbers for his previous seasons but a comparison here would be worthwhile).
He's hitting 26%+ of his contact for line drives (which fall in a league average of 70%+ of the time).
Those are two numbers that are very worthwhile to examine. Lee's HR's *could* be luck but they could also be someone finding a HR stroke. If the latter is the case and the 25% fly ball/hr ratio can hold up that will have a slight positive effect on his average.
If the 26% line drives is significantly higher than his career numbers that would also have a positive effect on his average given how often line drives go for hits.
Someone with all of the numbers in front of them should be able to determine a new baseline for Lee based on a higher fb/hr ratio and a higher line drive % assuming that he's found a way to hit the ball harder and more often for line drives than he has in the past. If I had to guess...assuming that he has done these things....I'd guess that he's going to be a .310-.320 hitter now.
You are completely mistaken by the 11% number of flyballs that go for hr. This is an average of all hitters, and therefore is applicable to pitcher's statistics. This is NOT applicable to hitters, because some hit for over that number and some hit for under that number.
Likewise, BABIP varies from hitter to hitter based on hit types. Developments are rapidly occuring in advanced hitting metrics based on hit types.