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BABIP discussion

Postby reiser » Fri Jun 24, 2005 8:39 pm

beltrans_boy wrote: Where did I say all outs were unlucky? I said that the fate of batted balls has an element of luck to it. Prove me wrong. So far, all you've done is tell me that I'm crazy and that my facts are flawed, but you haven't posted ANY evidence to support your claim.


I posted this as a new thread-i think others may be tiring of seeing a the DLee thread getting bumped, so I thought this would be more considerate.

I don't believe I've called you crazy once. I think I have disagreed with everything you say on this subject, but no hard feelings.

having said that, you haven't shown any evidence to support BABIP.

I have posted at least 2 studies that attempt to measure luck from the batter's box-which is your argument.
Links:
http://danagonistes.blogspot.com/2005/0 ... tters.html

and a more substantive study imho-
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... ing-props/

and a discussion of PrOPS:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/fil ... ion/28477/

finally, I am fairly cautious about using BABIP in the first place from quotes like this:
"I think our best conclusions would be the follows:
1 - pitching has more impact on BIP than does fielding
2 - luck has more impact than anything, over 700 BIP
3 - BABIP is not a good enough measure for the pitcher's skill"
http://www.tangotiger.net/solvingdips.pdf
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Postby beltrans_boy » Fri Jun 24, 2005 8:59 pm

I can't find a thesis in your post, so it's kind of difficult to respond.

Are you arguing that luck doesn't play a part in batting average? (That's what you were saying in the other post.)

Or...are you arguing that BABIP is a flawed metric to determine a hitter's luck?
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Postby ocmusicjunkie » Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:07 pm

I also would like to get in on this discussion, seeing as I missed the train in the other threads. I just can't figure out what the point of the first post was. :-?
Help please:
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1086524#1086524


Harden- 2.15 ERA, 7.61 K/9
Peavy - 2.89 ERA, 10.10 K/9

[b]Lets go Rich![/b]
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Postby reiser » Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:22 pm

beltrans_boy wrote: Or are you arguing that BABIP is a flawed metric to determine a hitter's luck?


ah-ha! how do you determine what is unlucky when the ball is placed in play?

a screaming line drive that goes directly to the fielder? what's merely bad hitting? and how do you quantify that?

basically I am assuming you can't.
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Postby reiser » Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:25 pm

ocmusicjunkie wrote:I also would like to get in on this discussion, seeing as I missed the train in the other threads. I just can't figure out what the point of the first post was. :-?


BB thinks much of non-HR/SO/BB hitting is luck. I disagree.

join in! here's the earlier discussion:
http://fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/v ... 2&start=75
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Postby beltrans_boy » Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:28 pm

I'm trying really hard to understand you, reiser, but I just can't.

What's your point? I'm just really confused right now.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:40 pm

reiser wrote:
ocmusicjunkie wrote:I also would like to get in on this discussion, seeing as I missed the train in the other threads. I just can't figure out what the point of the first post was. :-?


BB thinks much of non-HR/SO/BB hitting is luck. I disagree.

join in! here's the earlier discussion:
http://fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/v ... 2&start=75


I don't see that claim at all in what bb has written. I see him arguing that there is some luck in BABIP and that if you see an reallt high BABIP, you can expect some regression. I think that's true and supported by the data.
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Postby reiser » Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:53 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
reiser wrote:
BB thinks much of non-HR/SO/BB hitting is luck. I disagree.

join in! here's the earlier discussion:
http://fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/v ... 2&start=75


I don't see that claim at all in what bb has written. I see him arguing that there is some luck in BABIP and that if you see an reallt high BABIP, you can expect some regression. I think that's true and supported by the data.


I wondered where you'd been :)

We were talking about DLee, and I basically questioned the use of BABIP when his power numbers are so far above career norms. I believe his current SLG is a good .200 points ahead of his career numbers. I am certainly not arguing that he is going to finish with a .395/50/150 line.

but how much regression? here is BB's quote:
His .392 average is largely attributable to luck, and BABIP shows just how lucky he's been getting

that seems kind of far out there to me.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Jun 24, 2005 10:03 pm

Well, there can be a lot of regression when the data you are looking at is just 2 to 3 months worth of information. I'd be more inclined to lean in bb's direction. I'd weight very heavily his past performance and be reluctant to ascribe too much weight to this year. I'd certainly be adjusting my estimates upward, but cautiously.


Sorry I didn't see it. I'm in Boston for a conference, so I can't check in as much as when I'm home.
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Postby Iconoclastic » Fri Jun 24, 2005 10:07 pm

Does this have to do with hit rates? To the best of my knowledge pitchers hit rates should be 30% because that's the average hitters' hit rate and each pitcher faces hundreds of batters each year. On the other hand hitters hit rates are player dependent (Pujols' and Ichiro's hit rate should be higher than say, Toby Hall's). So hitters can affect their hit rates with their skill whereas pitchers cannot.
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Aramis Ramirez in 155 G will hit over .300 40 HR 110 RBIs

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