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mulder's splits

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Postby AT » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:47 pm

I haven't looked at his 1st half and 2nd half splits but from my experience I've always thought of Mulder as a 2nd half dud.
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Postby emb0lus » Mon Jul 11, 2005 3:33 pm

i just traded Mike Cameron for him. I saw those splits about a week ago when I made the offer. Fortunately I can afford to spot start him if I want, but basically I had an overloaded OF and I figured that at least he plays for St. Louis and should be good for 7 more wins at least.
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Postby AT » Mon Jul 11, 2005 3:37 pm

I just looked at my hunch and while he improved dramatically in 2001, and 2002 in the second half he disappointed in 2003 and 2004 in the second half.
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Postby so0perspam » Mon Jul 11, 2005 3:38 pm

Atrophying Testicles wrote:I just looked at my hunch and while he improved dramatically in 2001, and 2002 in the second half he disappointed in 2003 and 2004 in the second half.


Hrrm ... so what will it be this year? :-?
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Mon Jul 11, 2005 3:44 pm

Atrophying Testicles wrote:I haven't looked at his 1st half and 2nd half splits but from my experience I've always thought of Mulder as a 2nd half dud.


in 2003 and 2004 he was notably worse in the 2nd half. overall, his career 2nd half era is higher (3.80 1st half to 4.22 2nd half) but his whip (1.29 1st half to 1.30 2nd half) and baa (.262 1st half to .261 2nd half) are remarkably similar. first half/2nd half splits are good for telling you what has happened but i am not really sure that they are too accurate at predicting what will happen.
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Postby AT » Mon Jul 11, 2005 4:48 pm

j_d_mcnugent wrote:
Atrophying Testicles wrote:I haven't looked at his 1st half and 2nd half splits but from my experience I've always thought of Mulder as a 2nd half dud.


in 2003 and 2004 he was notably worse in the 2nd half. overall, his career 2nd half era is higher (3.80 1st half to 4.22 2nd half) but his whip (1.29 1st half to 1.30 2nd half) and baa (.262 1st half to .261 2nd half) are remarkably similar. first half/2nd half splits are good for telling you what has happened but i am not really sure that they are too accurate at predicting what will happen.


Those are aggregate #'s though. You need to evaluate year by year and make your decision on that. A career trend is important to be aware of but Mulder is a good example of why you need to look at each year individually. His 2001 and 2002 season are a complete 180 from his 2003 and 2004 campaigns. If you look at his aggregate #'s you'd never know that in 2001 and 2002 he had terrific second halves. I'm not saying he's going to return to his 2001 and 2002 trend and have a monster second half but it's something you have to account for before saying outright, this guy is a second half dud.
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Postby RynMan » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:57 pm

The 6.13 ERA post all star break last year is a big reason why I stayed away this year.
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Postby gabenterprises » Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:42 am

I just did get him for Frank Thomas. Seems about the right value. I wouldn't do Maggs or Floyd, but Thomas I was ready to give.
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