beltrans_boy wrote:reiser wrote:beltrans_boy wrote:reiser wrote:so can you defend BABIP in evaluating hitters or not? if not, why not just stick to OBP?
While there is a ton of fluctuation in BABIP from hitter to hitter,
It's less reliable than using it to evaluate pitchers, but it's still useful. Like I said, BABIP fluctuates quite a bit from player to player
so you can't defend it. you are misusing a stat basically. frankly, i think BABIP is a *crappy* way to evaluate picthers, much less hitters, and OBP is perfectly sufficient for this discussion.
First of all, I'm not misusing the stat. OBP is not sufficient for this discussion because it is significantly dependent on BABIP. I went on to explain why we can expect Lee's BABIP to drop, but of course you left that out of my quote because it doesn't suit your argument. I'm not going to retype it again. If you want to believe that current OBP is a perfectly sufficient way to predict future performance, then go right ahead. You're allowed to be wrong. You have to look at the whole picture, and BABIP is a very significant part of that picture.
Bullshit. BABIP was used as a basis for evaluating pitchers in the DIPS studies which have not held up. Even the most recent study I found defending DIPS took an exorbitant amount of time arriving at the conclusion that HR/9 and K/9 were the best indicator's of predicting future ERA.
Which was already well established.
I am not aware of any studies that purport to show that most of what hitters do is luck. Nor have you provided any. To help you make your argument look less unreasonable, here is the only study I have found http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... ing-props/
which is based on 2004 data only. and here's the reviews:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/fil ... ion/28477/
Hitting is not luck. You've played baseball- given a pitch you can handle, you can pull the ball, go the opposite way, hit it over the fence, hit it right at a fielder, whatever. It's not luck. It's a skill, honed to the nth degree by the small universe of major league hitters capable of hitting around .300 year in and year out. Scott Boras's friends
Which doesn't rule out your point about regression to the mean, or even a mean .20-.40 odd points above Lee's career #'s. We agree there. But I can't believe you are using BABIP to evaluate hitters.
beltrans_boy wrote: Do you really think he's going to finish the year hitting .390?
hey that's the one point we agree on! don't go muddying the waters!