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Another H. Reynolds analysis of fantasy baseball.

PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2005 6:26 pm
by Mercer Boy
Straight from SC not 2 minutes ago.

Keep Matt Clement.
Keep Kenny Rogers.
Keep Miguel Cabrera.
Trade Adrian Beltre.
Trade Eric Chavez.
Trade Curt Schilling.

His definition of trade and keep is totally wrong for fantasy baseball. I absolutely love how SC makes it a huge teaser before the segment starts, and then it makes no good fantasy sense.

Harold...understand this - NO ONE WILL TRADE FOR THESE PLAYERS FOR ANYTHING GOOD!!! :-B :-B :-B

He also claimed that he is in the ESPN fantasy league...if he is, he's probably dead last. :-t

PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2005 6:29 pm
by jellyroll
he's a baseball analyst not a fantasy baseball analyst

PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2005 6:29 pm
by davidmarver
jellyroll wrote:he's a baseball analyst not a fantasy baseball analyst

Even that's borderline.

PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2005 6:33 pm
by Mercer Boy
Yes, but they drum him up to be a fantasy analyst by having him talk about what you should do with your fantasy team.

For him, keep means a player is doing good, trade means a player is doing bad. OK, why doesn't he just say the person is doing good or bad? You should already know this because we watch the games and see what they are doing on our teams. But, we shouldn't be dumb enough to trade them off if they are doing bad because we won't get fair value - unless you really need the space on your team. You just have to hope they return to form or make a half-decent charge so that someone will buy on them.

If SC would just not slant this as a fantasy segment, I would have no problem with it.

Re: Another H. Reynolds analysis of fantasy baseball.

PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2005 6:35 pm
by beltrans_boy
Mercer Boy wrote:He also claimed that he is in the ESPN fantasy league...if he is, he's probably dead last. :-t


Don't be so sure. I'm pretty sure my sister would have a hard time finishing dead last in "the" ESPN fantasy league.

PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2005 6:38 pm
by so0perspam
so0perspam says:
Trade Matt Clement.
Keep Kenny Rogers, nobody wants him.
Keep Miguel Cabrera.
Trade Adrian Beltre if anyone still sees him having value.
Keep Eric Chavez, too much upside.
Stash Curt Schilling on the DL.

PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2005 6:43 pm
by Mercer Boy
so0perspam wrote:so0perspam says:
Trade Matt Clement.
Keep Kenny Rogers, nobody wants him.
Keep Miguel Cabrera.
Trade Adrian Beltre if anyone still sees him having value.
Keep Eric Chavez, too much upside.
Stash Curt Schilling on the DL.


See, you should be doing the segment...the operative word is others seeing high value in these guys that Reynolds says to trade.

Although, I still kind of like Clement. He could be pretty good this year I think, so I would keep him (but once again, I'm a rookie at this, so I may have no idea :-)).

PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2005 6:44 pm
by gws226
I don't agree with keeping K.rog, but if you can get decent value for any of those other players now I'd agree & move them.

I do agree on his suggestion to move these players if you can. He's advising you to get something for him now, because he thinks come July their situations will not have improved....... you'll get ziltch for them then, and you'd wasted a roster spot for all those weeks.

There was a big discussion regarding Lance Berkman when he came back... the argument of are you selling him high or low if you traded him the day he came off.
-->If you traded him that day, you wouldn't get 100% value for him, but if he didn't come back to form and you could of sold of him then for 80% of his anticipated production, you could possibly gain without assuming any risk. What is worth now? Owners have to bench him because he doesn't command much trade value on the market.

Right now if you traded any of these guys your not gonna get 100% value for them obviously, but if you get 70% of what everyone thought he'd do this year back, and he continues to play at his current rate... you've sold high and should be happy. Of course if he suddenly turn it around, you only got 70 cents on the dollar back for him, but you took none of the risk the other manager had to endore.

Dollar cost averaging vs. Risk.

I own hafner and I missed that window 2 weeks ago... now I have to either hold em or drop him to waivers. Beltre is not playing well, but he's not killing your roster right now... but I'd say the other 2 Schilling (will he be back?) Chavez (will he turn it around?) the values of these players will be nothing compared to what they are now 6 weeks from now.

PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2005 6:49 pm
by max1889
davidmarver wrote:
jellyroll wrote:he's a baseball analyst not a fantasy baseball analyst

Even that's borderline.

I'd still say he's entertaining. As far as the fantasy keep/trade segment, it looks like they mislabeled it and it should be hot/not.

PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2005 6:53 pm
by so0perspam
gws226 wrote:I don't agree with keeping K.rog, but if you can get decent value for any of those other players now I'd agree & move them.


Wrong, wrong, wrong and wrong. You can jibber jabber about your conceptual idea of selling high on Rogers, but as a Rogers owner, you seriously have no idea. I've put him out there on the market in many of my leagues, and you know what? Best offer I got was Jason Lane. Mench and Sizemore are on the WW right now too in those leagues.


Mercer Boy wrote:Although, I still kind of like Clement. He could be pretty good this year I think, so I would keep him (but once again, I'm a rookie at this, so I may have no idea :-)).


True, he's alright, but way too overhyped right now. A pitcher with a 1.32 WHIP has sell written all over him. Only reason he's 6-0 is because in his 11 starts, the BoSox have averaged 6 runs. So basically, if his ERA was 5.53 right now, he'd most likely still be 6-0. :-o