GotowarMissAgnes wrote:In 2002, he hit .282 against lefties.....that's the decline. He's gone from a .270-.280 hitter against lefties (career average of .278) to hitting .189 and .221 against them. FWIW, age related decline does not happen in a pure linear trend.
i think you missed my main point from my last post. i really can't give less damn about palmeiro. if you want to think he's not good, then fine. i just wanted to add one thing to the discussion that you were already having with others, which is that past history is relevant. and right now, you're proving me right by using palmeiro's recent avg (2002) as well as his career avg - which isn't even "RECENT" history.
His first half performance this year is not significantly different from last year.
2 more homers, .30 points higher on avg. but yeah, you're right, that's not "significantly" higher. hence i said, small.
Neither is his typical second half performance different from his typical first half performance in any significant way.
are you kidding me? i specifically said for the past 4 seasons (his "RECENT" history), not for his career. go check the #s.
Of course, no one knows for sure what will happen...but the past baseball history shows that players Palmeiro's age tend to trend downward in performance. So, if you are making predictions, it's not like you don't have past history upon which to base that prediction.
huh? so you are saying past baseball history DOES matter? if that's what you're saying we have no issue to discuss here. the one and ONLY reason why i ever got involved in this thread was because you wrote:
"I don't give a rat's ass what Palmeiro did in the past. What matters is his likely performance in the future. And on that measure, he's no better than Molina."
and you also wrote:
"You pick players based on their future performance, not their past performance. Fantasy ball doesn't give you credit for the HRs Palmeiro hit in 1996. So, Palmeiro's HoF status based on past performance is totally irrelevant to the discussion of who to pick. What is relevant is a player's future performance. And, on that measure, fantasy players should understand that, taking into account position, age, etc, Molina is a better pick."
i only got involved because i wanted to state that what palmeiro did in the past should matter in evaluating him, and that because palmeiro has history while molina doesn't, you can't compare the two. seems like now you're saying the same thing.