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hybrid wrote:He has been slowing down, except for his AVG. and OBP%. He had such an amazing April though that you don't notice.
April: 23 games 95 AB's - 21 runs - 8 hr's - 26 rbi - 10 sb's
May: 20 games 83 AB's 15 runs - 3 hr's - 7 rbi's - 3 sb's
Q wrote:Well what do you consider to be the real deal? Will he put up these kind of numbers for the rest of the year? Heck no! Will he be a valuable fantasy player from here on out? You bet ya!
I see him finishing the year with about a .310-.320 batting average (most of that achieved during the first two months so about .290 the rest of the way), 20-25 home runs (so about 10 the rest of the way) and aroun 40 steals. He will have better than normal RBI and R production obviously but he will finish more around 80 RBI and 120 R.
I'm actually disappointed that I didnt see his power coming. As a speedy second basemen I think I overlooked his power potential. A player's doubles total is a great indicator of potential power as most doubles are just a few feet from being home runs and young players gain more power as they improve towards their prime. Roberts had 50 doubles last year and just 4 home runs. It should have been expected that he would improve his hitting skills and probably get a little stronger as he is about to enter his prime at 27 so a reasonable prediction would have been 15 home runs. Obviously with his hot start he will surpass that but for the last 2/3 (actually a bit more) of the season he will hit a few more than 10 home runs, Which will equal 20-25 for the season.
The rise is batting average is expected with the rise in plate discipline, power index and speed index. Since he is getting on base more the stolen base totals are also legitimate.
He is the "Real Thing" if your projections are conservative enough.
Q wrote:The reason that I believe that Roberts will hit .290 for the rest of the season is a combination of saber metric analysis.
Actually his plate discipline is not all that much better than it has been in his career. He is actually striking out at a higher rate (16% of the time compared to 13% and 15% the previous two years) than normal. His K-BB rate though is about a tenth higher of a point than the previous year which would suggest a higher hit rate, which is rate of balls in play that become hits.
Roberts has got hits on 44.7% of balls that he has hit into play so far this year. In 2004 he only got hits on 32.1% and 2003 30.8%. This is his hit rate for the year. There is no way that he keeps this up since this is Manny Ramirez territory and hit rate depends on how hard you hit the ball and a little bit on speed (beating out infield hits).
To project Robert's hit rate for the rest of the year we'll start at his 32.1% from last year. Adjust it accordingly for the increase in power index, speed index and slight increase in plate discipline and I would believe it will be about 35% for the rest of the year. That is still a good hit rate.
To bad .315 for the year that means he must get 138 hits in his projected 472 at bats remaining. Using his current strikeout rate he will strikeout 74 more times. That means that he has to get 138 hits of 398 balls in play, which comes out to a hit rate of 34.7%. That's very close to 35%, my projection, and if my guess is correct then he will be around .310-.320.
stumpak wrote:Who cares how his statline looks at the end of the season? That is bad metric to use in mid-season. What should inform people's decisions is how he will do from this point forward and I would bet the house on Soriano outperforming him from May 23 until October 1. He is not going to be a bust in the sense that he will turn into Junior Spivey of something like that, but he is playing out of his mind right now and will not keep it up. I would take Soriano in a straight up trade in a heartbeat.
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