stumpak wrote:Do the math: if Fuentes pitches 40 innings for the rest of the year with a 5.00 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP, that has hardly any impact on your ratios whatsoever assuming 1000-1500 innings pitches. And any points you lose there would probably be offset by points gained by the higher than average K rate he will have over those 40 innings (i.e., say he gets 40Ks vs. the 20-25 that would provided by the low tier SP you would probably otherwise use the innings on. And oh yeah, then there are the 20+ saves he will get you if he keeps his job. In a typical roto league, this can easily get you 5 points if you are around the middle of the pack in saves.
The bottom line is that it is well worth to take a gamble on a questionable closer who has a full time job even if you think he will get blown up periodically and end the season with crummy ratios, expecially if he has a good K rate.
Three problems I see with that strategy:
1. The guy pitches in Coors Field. His "blowups" might be 3-5 runs in a game, where as a "blowup" for say, Guardado, or many other mid tier closers, is 1-2 runs. The park effect can really come into play with a Rockies closer.
2. Is he REALLY gonna get many saves? My guess is no. That team isnt very good, and they dont play many close games.
3. Risk vs. Reward. I'm just not sure the 5.00 era 1.40 WHIP thing is as negligible as you say it would be. A factor would be his other closers, are they any good? Like I said earlier, if he is desperate for saves, and not counting on more than 15 or so, go for it, but you do so at the potential peril of other peripheral stats, if they are figured into his league. Maybe its a points league, who knows.