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Dusty Baker, hopefully is fired! HORRIBLE!

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Postby Dmville » Fri Jun 03, 2005 9:48 am

I think Dusty's logic for throwing them long innings is that he doesn't care about next year. He is likely gone if they don't at least come close in the post-season. Same w Rothschild. I think they are just hoping they can make it through this year and worry about next year then.
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Postby RynMan » Sat Jun 04, 2005 1:56 am

CubsFan7724 wrote:Oh, and Ryn, this usually indicates some sort of humor: :-b And whats his ERA in save situations? I'm not sure where to get that, so I ask you.


Okay my bad, to me this is that you are kidding: ;-7

:-D
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Postby wrveres » Sat Jun 04, 2005 4:35 am

Madison wrote:Can any of the Dusty defenders explain the advantage of letting a top flight starter with arm issues throw 120+ pitches on a regular basis? Other than winning now and not caring at all about the team's future (Prior, Wood, Zambrano are not easily replaced, and are what the team is based around), I really do not see a reason to do it. Can someone tell me what I am missing?


Madison...
You of all people should understand this better than anybody here, being a bowler. No way could I bowl nearly as many frames as you, even if I practiced for a year. Never mind the results, the score or even the accuracy. My arm would fall off long before yours would.

Now we have this arbitrary number, 100 pitches, created by saber nerds that say this is the "Max Number of Pitches for the Average Pitcher". The key word there not being Max but yet, Average.

Young pitchers today are babied. Most organizations only let there guys in the minors go 80 pitches an outing and they are pulled. They never get stretched out. The fricking GM of the Mets (who ever it is this year) demands a phone call and an explanation the very next morning, if any of the pitchers in his organization go over a pre set pitch level. It is sad.

But history has been shown that pitchers that are stretched out regularly, each and every season, can continue to pitch 120 plus innings, as long as they are effective. Heck pitchers have been throwing that many pitches per outing for years, and they certainly did not have the luxury of modern science.

Now these guys in question, Prior, Wood, Zambrano and even guys like Schmidt, Hernandez, and Johnson) are not your average pitchers. They are guys that can and should be counted on to go 7-8 innings each and every start, and be effective. They are aces.


If they can't .. Then they are not Aces.




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I am talking "National Media"
Fox, MSNBC, and the Clinton News Network.
I cannot remember the last time I have seen a minority child abduction being covered there. Honestly.

I do not watch enough local news.
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Postby wrveres » Sat Jun 04, 2005 5:40 am

I stand corrected .
Ex mets GM.
Its so hard to keep track of them these days. ;-)

Jim Duquette, whose Mets blew out their promising Wilson-Pulsipher-Isringhausen threesome a decade ago, doesn't want to take any chances. He checks managers' reports every day for starters' pitch counts. "We don't want them going over it at all," he says. "Maybe there's an exception when it's 3-and-2 and a guy fouls a few off you don't take him out. But we give them a range for a reason. Guys get ticked off when they've thrown 90 pitches and get relieved in the fifth. Our response is you should go well into the sixth on 90 pitches."

What if a manager goes over the limit? "My first phone call is to hear his thought process," Duquette says. "The next time I wouldn't care what his answer was."



Leo Mazzone on pitch counts ..
"I don't want to see them," "My eyes are gonna tell me more than any (expletive) number."
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Postby wrveres » Sat Jun 04, 2005 6:08 am

There is no right answer.


Has everybody read this ...
Its a great read, but grab a soda first. ;-)


The Hook/Jayson Stark wrote:Is 100 pitches really the magic number?
Do flashing lights go off in every dugout any time a starting pitcher reaches 100 pitches? You'd think so, given all the attention we seem to pay to it. But this just in:

All pitch counts are not created equal.

"If a guy is getting out of two or three jams in a game, if he's pitching out of the stretch all the time, there's an intensity to pitches you make when you've got a lot of baserunners on base," Kerrigan says. "How many more quality pitches do you have to make? Felipe Alou used to have a saying. He said every pitch a pitcher makes in those situations is almost like making two pitches with nobody on, because of the extra focus you've got to have, the wear and tear on your body and the intensity of those pitches."

So 100 pitches in a three-hit shutout are a lot different than 100 pitches in a five-inning nine-hitter. And 100 pitches in a 2-1 game can bear zero similarity to 100 pitches in a 9-2 game. In fact, 100 pitches for Kerry Wood may be the equivalent of 150 for Roger Clemens.

"If you have a veteran pitcher who may know what he's doing out there," says La Russa "he may throw 140 pitches -- but of the 140, he's only maxing out on 40. The other 100, he's taking a little off, putting a little on. But when the slop is flying, he'll reach back and make his best pitch.

"With younger guys, the reason there are so many injuries is that, with young guys, their answer when they start to struggle is to reach back. So of those 120 pitches, 40 are their best sliders and 80 are their best fastballs. So there's wear and tear on their arm. That's why you pay attention to pitch counts."

We know of several teams that are engaged in long, detailed studies to determine if there really is such a thing as a magic number. They're rapidly reaching the conclusion there isn't.

"Each pitcher," says an official of one club, "has to be taken individually -- 110 pitches is a lot for Smith but not a lot for Jones. So every analysis would have to only include the starts by the specific pitcher you're considering.


"That gives you maybe 33 starts a year to look at. But of course, not all those starts are created equal. (You have to factor in) weather, rest before the start, quality of competition -- and unlike a lot of things I look at, these extraneous variables don't all just even out over time. You'd also have to consider that a pitcher's effectiveness at high pitch counts might change year-to-year, maybe as that tiny tear in his labrum gets a bit less tiny.

"And sometimes the game dictates pulling a pitcher before his count gets high, because you have a fresh bullpen and want a matchup, or, in the National League, because you chose to pinch-hit. That limits your sample even further. So you end up with small samples of polluted data for most of your starters."
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Postby Madison » Sun Jun 05, 2005 12:13 am

wrveres wrote:
Madison wrote:Can any of the Dusty defenders explain the advantage of letting a top flight starter with arm issues throw 120+ pitches on a regular basis? Other than winning now and not caring at all about the team's future (Prior, Wood, Zambrano are not easily replaced, and are what the team is based around), I really do not see a reason to do it. Can someone tell me what I am missing?


Madison...
You of all people should understand this better than anybody here, being a bowler. No way could I bowl nearly as many frames as you, even if I practiced for a year. Never mind the results, the score or even the accuracy. My arm would fall off long before yours would.


I have to agree with that :-D , but with a year of work, you might be surprised how close it would be. ;-)

Wrveres wrote:Now we have this arbitrary number, 100 pitches, created by saber nerds that say this is the "Max Number of Pitches for the Average Pitcher". The key word there not being Max but yet, Average.

Young pitchers today are babied. Most organizations only let there guys in the minors go 80 pitches an outing and they are pulled. They never get stretched out. The fricking GM of the Mets (who ever it is this year) demands a phone call and an explanation the very next morning, if any of the pitchers in his organization go over a pre set pitch level. It is sad.

But history has been shown that pitchers that are stretched out regularly, each and every season, can continue to pitch 120 plus innings, as long as they are effective. Heck pitchers have been throwing that many pitches per outing for years, and they certainly did not have the luxury of modern science.

Now these guys in question, Prior, Wood, Zambrano and even guys like Schmidt, Hernandez, and Johnson) are not your average pitchers. They are guys that can and should be counted on to go 7-8 innings each and every start, and be effective. They are aces.


If they can't .. Then they are not Aces.


I agree that pitchers in today's era are babied compared to those of the past. No argument from me on that.

What I'm getting at is what is the benefit of allowing a pitcher who's either not 100%, or had arm injuries in the short past, take the mound until he's gassed?

Good article ;-D , and I agree that 100 is just an arbitrary number. Where I differ is the amount of pitches that the pitcher actually throws. The article leads people to believe that pitchers don't try to make their best pitch, and don't give it their best shot most of the time. I tend to disagree with that. Sure, they toss off speed pitches and change ups, so that does come into play, but I'd say that the vast majority of pitches thrown are designed to get the batter out. Be it a strikeout, or hit into an out. Only giving partial effort doesn't make any sense at all. When was the last time you heard a pitcher say he didn't give it all he had?

I still think sending pitchers to the mound that are either not 100% or have had arm related injuries in the short past, and letting them gas themselves is a very bad idea, and doesn't make any sense at all. Just my opinion of course.
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