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RynMan wrote: But it is a fact that by giving up an out you DECREASE your chances of scoring a run.
Phatferd wrote:Here are 3 situations:
1) 2nd and 3rd 0 outs. Grounder to 2nd for 1 out. 1 run, runner to 3rd. Next batter sac fly to CF. 2 runs score...third out is mute for this arguments sake. (this is using outs not hits. A hit would only make this more ideal)
2) 2nd and 3rd 0 outs. Walk. Bases loaded. Groundball to 2nd double play 1 run scores. Next batter flys out. Inning over 1 run.
3) 2nd and 3rd 0 outs. Grounder to 2nd throws home then to first. Next batter flys out to CF. O runs.
I am using the grounder to 2nd and flyout to CF to show what would happen with the exact same situations occured to show my point and to keep the test accurate to each other.
George_Foreman wrote:RynMan wrote: But it is a fact that by giving up an out you DECREASE your chances of scoring a run.
not strictly true. i think what you are trying to say is that giving up an out decreases the expected number of runs scored, in other words the average number of runs that teams throughout history have scored in situation A (pre-sacrafice) is higher than the average number of runs that teams throughout history have scored in situation B (situation A + sacrafice).
what this does not comment on is this situation where the first run scored is the only one that really matters, ie if you need to score just one run to turn a tie game in to a victory (bottom of the 9th, tie game, etc.). in this case (or cases similar to it), it might be the better course of action to push the runner over, since you will be more likely to score that one run, even if your expected runs scored will decrease.
i hope that helped to clarify.
RynMan wrote:Phatferd, in regards to an out helping you score runs it isn't true. The situation dictates the play, yes. If you are playing for only ONE run, then outs can help you to achieve it. But it is a fact that by giving up an out you DECREASE your chances of scoring a run. It is a proven fact. I would say its a statistical fact but I dunno how well that would go down. The further a runner is around the bases with the least number of outs, the higher their chance of scoring. I'm not just assuming that, they have researched this.
And I do tend to agree with you in a sense regarding walks. The thing is that people who walk alot (i.e. the guys described in Moneyball) don't go up there looking for a walk. The underlying concept is that these guys have an extremely disciplined approach at the plate. It's their ability to lay off BAD pitches that makes them soo valuable. They don't give themselves up. They aren't afraid to battle by being behind in the count. And by doing this they:
a) may lead to a walk (increasing their chances of scoring a run)
b) run the pitcher's pitch count up
c) walk, which forces the pitcher into a set position
d) make the pitcher give them a pitch to hit
e) tend to go deep into counts
When you go up hacking, you swing at bad pitches and you dont make the pitcher throw to you. Walks simply indicate plate discipline, and OBP is bascially the product of hits and walks which is a better indicator of how valuable a guy is to his team's offense.
But the fact is, if you buy into the sabremetric theory that every time you preserve one of your team's 27 outs you are doing your team justice, then you are fine with walking. I'm not saying go up there not looking to swing. You just gotta go up there looking to swing at strikes only. There is such a thing as being too aggressive.
Phatferd, I'm just curious, have you read Moneyball?
Phatferd wrote:I respect you RynMan and appreciate the way you go about discussions. I can discuss with you on this forever because you provide relevant data and don't go about it with a closed mind. There are a lot of great statheads on this site and I don't have a problem with all statheads just b/c they are statheads.
Bas wrote:In 2002 Beane had 7 first round draft picks. How many of them have turned into impact players?
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