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Bedard's Control: The Difference

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Bedard's Control: The Difference

Postby Titanic Grizzlie » Sat May 07, 2005 11:37 pm

If you look at last years numbers for Bedard the signs were there that this kid had really nasty stuff. In 137 Innings last year he stuck out 121 batters which is excellent. Last year he gave up just over 1 hit per inning. This year he is giving up just under one hit per inning. So there certainly is some improvement there, but that is not what has made the difference.

Last year. Bedard walked a whopping 71 batters in only 137 innings for a BB/IP of .52. that is just plain bad. This year he has given up only 7 walks in 39 innnings for a BB/IP of .18. The question that remains is can he maintain this control for an enitre season? To me it seems like those figures are so drastically different that I don't see how a pitcher can improve his control that much over one season regardless of TJ recovery. Hence I am saying that we will certainly see a reversion to more of mean.

A futher reason why Bedrard's numbers will take big hit is because so far he has pitched a very easy schedule: Tampa twice, Toronto twice, Oakland, and Detroit. Once Some of the big boys show up we will see how he fairs.

Consequently from this point forward I see his percentages settling back closer to a more realistic improvement rather than the drastic one we have seen thus far:

3.95 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
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Postby Yoda » Sun May 08, 2005 12:07 am

Walk = responsibility of the pitcher and the pitcher only. More walks, more base runners. More base runners, greater the chances of it resulting in a run. Pretty simple really.
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Postby booboo » Sun May 08, 2005 12:21 am

Good insight with Bedard. I disagree though. Throughout his career, he's never been a high-walk guy. In the minors, he posted a 5 to 1 k/bb ratio. In fact, he was regarded as the O's top prospect not because of the movement on his fastball and curve, but because of his uncanny control and smooth, effortless throwing motion. Now, he's got a quality changeup in his arsenal as well.

His problems last year didn't stem from a lack of control. It was from a lack of confidence. He would get ahead in the count, then he would nibble around the plate, trying to get the hitter to go for a pitch out of the strikezone. That's why his pitches per inning were so high last year. He didn't believe he could punch guys out by going right after them. It wasn't a lack of control. This year, with a changeup that makes his plus fastball more effective, he's going right after guys.

I agree with the soft early schedule leading towards early success, but I think he'll get stronger as the year goes on as he recovers more from TJ surgery and as he gains more confidence.

He's not gonna maintain Cy-young numbers, but as a fantasy owner of the guy, I'm expecting 15 wins, 170 ks, 3.30 era.
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Postby The Punisher » Sun May 08, 2005 12:25 am

Yoda wrote:Walk = responsibility of the pitcher and the pitcher only. More walks, more base runners. More base runners, greater the chances of it resulting in a run. Pretty simple really.

Ok I know I will sound like Billy Beane here, but a walk is not 100% controlled by a pitcher. Ok 3-2 count right, a pitcher throws a curve that ends up out of the strikezone but the batter swings and whiffs, if the batter had a better eye then he wouldnt of swung and wouldve drawn a walk. Pitchers arent totally responsbile for walks
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Postby Conner » Sun May 08, 2005 12:27 am

booboo wrote:Throughout his career, he's never been a high-walk guy.


I said this before the season started, when I picked Bedard as my sleeper.

He was coming back from an injury last year, and never had control problems. It's pretty logical to think that he'd get that control back when fully healthy.
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Postby KolbSaves » Sun May 08, 2005 3:00 am

In terms of runs scored in all of Major League baseball:

Tampa is 6th
Toronto is 7th

While these offenses might or might not be playing over their heads, the point is that they smoked other pitchers and Bedard handled them.
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