The real question here is the level of risk you assume by taking Patterson vs the amount of comfort you'll find in Livan's certainty. First, I don't assume that every man is a gambling man. Nor that we all seek out the anticipation involved in a leap of faith, or the ecstasy inherent in the landing. You may be of a mind and reasoning which knows that deliberate thought can only assist your decision within the limits of your knowledge, and no further - and therefore you will always tend towards that which you know, or towards that which you know you do not know. But a question like this depends mainly on factors that you do not know what it is that you do not yet know, and therefore the decision itself may as well be a crapshoot.
So I'd take Patterson, without a doubt. Livan's a solid option to have in the back half of your rotation, and he'll bring you some wins, but he's not a low-ERA or WHIP pitcher. Patterson has the stuff, and the relatively low risk he carries is mitigated by the rewards. If he dissapoints, the chances are that it won't be cataclysmic, and you'll only be slightly worse off for not having taken Livan. But if he shows himself to be the first real DC ace, you'll be a happy man.
Reply to mine! http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... p?t=124223