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Better Value: Burnitz or Dunn?

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Postby quietstorm » Tue May 03, 2005 12:20 am

reznorsboy wrote:Dunn's Avg is just as bad as Burnitz!! He may hit a few more homers!! Why is everyone high on Dunn after one good year in which he led the league in K's

He was also third in BBs. As I've said before, his Ks are almost solely a byproduct of his plate discpline. He waits for his pitch, and he strikes out on called strikes a lot (about 30% of his Ks last year were called). They may not be a good thing, but they're certainly not as bad as people make them out to be.

If you want to rag on him for his Ks, let's look at Burnitz, Dunn, and, for comparison, Miguel Tejada.

2005 K/BB
Burnitz: 20/6 (3.33:1)
Dunn: 25/16 (1.56:1)
Tejada: 10/6 (1.66:1)

2004 K/BB
Burnitz: 124/58 (2.14:1)
Dunn: 195/108 (1.81:1)
Tejada: 73/48 (1.51:1)

2004 OBP
Burnitz: .356
Dunn: .416
Tejada: .360

Some of you have compared Dunn's AVG to Burnitz's AVG? Let's look at Burnitz without that Colorado season in his resume. It's .251, a mere point higher than Dunn's.

Career translated AVG from Baseball Prospectus shows Dunn at .263 and Burnitz at .257.
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Postby Cooner » Tue May 03, 2005 12:33 am

nice post quietstorm.

I'd just like to reiterate on that Burnitz's OVERALL value is negative. Sure, Dunn gets negative value for his average, but his other numbers have large enough positive values to make him better, overall, than a replacement player. When a 12 team replacement player is at about .280, 20 HRs, 80 RBIs, etc, Burnitz's homers just don't get him out of the hole his average puts him in. Dunn's HRs, RBIs, runs, etc all combine to get him to positive value. Negative overall value is still detracting from your team, independently of when you draft it. Burnitz just isn't a guy you want on your team, unless he's on your bench.
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Postby Half Massed » Tue May 03, 2005 1:39 am

well if you play in a 5x5 league with OPS instead of AVG burnitz becomes a much better value. he has a career OPS of over .800, which along with his power, provides an excellent value in the mid to late teen rounds. of course most leagues don't use OPS, but in my case i'd rather have burnitz (although i took nomar in the 4th round over dunn, so i guess i didn't really win :-° ) i'm hoping barmes can continue to hold the fort down though.
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Postby baseballnewb » Tue May 03, 2005 7:52 am

Dunn's OPS will likely be around 1000 this year, even counting that he blows burnitz away, that just helps things since he walks a whole lot more than burnitz. In an OPS league without average Dunn becomes a 2nd or 3rd round pick, not sure how you passed on him in the 4th.
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