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Best "sell high" guy in the game right now might be...

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Postby thehat » Thu Apr 28, 2005 2:40 am

superfly wrote:Hee Seop Choi

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Postby wrveres » Thu Apr 28, 2005 2:48 am

Superfly ??

Isn't that the guy that traded Tex to get Burrell. :-o :-o
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Postby SouthBronxBombers » Thu Apr 28, 2005 8:26 am

Yes, madison, what you get for him now may be the best you can get for him, but that is not going to be much, and doubtful anybody that will help your team. Everybody in the league had the same opportunity to draft him. He is not doing anything unusual, it is not like he is performing like Brian Roberts here. He is doing the same thing he always does, getting saves with bad numbers. If you play in a league with idiots, then yes, you may get something useful. If not, which is likely the case, you're not going to get anything. The other players would just as soon have him left on your team for the damage he does your WHIP and ERA, or just taking up a roster spot if you bench him. You can't trade high for a player who is not outperforming his history. You can only trade for what his actual worth is, which with Graves is not that much. He is not a big secret or surprise.

Trading high would be somebody like Roherts or Garland, who are outperforming their past history.
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Postby Laean » Thu Apr 28, 2005 11:49 am

Madison wrote:
Laean wrote:exactly what i was trying to say. i'm not saying you can't "sell" him, but he certainly isn't a "sell high" candidate, regardless of how bad the closer market is right now. if just the fact that there's a lot of injured closers makes graves a sell high candidate, then that must mean every single closer still healthy must be a sell high candidate as well.

"Selling high" is trading a player when they are at peak value. Graves is currently at his peak value. He cannot be worth more than he's worth right now. He's healthy. He's got a job. He's getting saves. As closers come back from the DL, his value goes down. As committees shake themselves down, someone emerges from the group, and nails down the closer spot, his value goes down. If he continues to struggle, he could lose the job (not likely, but possible) and his value goes down.

Another way of looking at it........What would have to happen for Graves's value to go up? Realistically speaking. Not some far fetched scheme of 5 more closers biting the dust with injuries or anything.

Graves is worth as much right now as he will be all season. If someone wants to move him, now is the time to do it. That's what Thehat was trying to get accross. He's not saying you'll land some big stud or anything. He's just giving a heads up that Graves cannot possibly be worth more in the future than he's currently worth now, so now's a good time to move him if you want to.

Not sure why this caused such a debate. It's normal fantasy strategy. Like buying low. If you want Eric Chavez, now's the time. His value cannot possibly get any lower (provided he stays healthy) than it currently is. On the flipside, Graves's value cannot get any higher. Normal fantasy strategy.

selling high means you get more than what a player is actually worth. no matter how bad the market is, no one's going to pay for graves like he is lidge or something, because everyone knows graves is going to have like 3.90 ERA and 1.40 whip with those 30-40 saves.

i said IF just the fact that the closer market is bad is what makes graves a sell high candidate, THEN everyone is a sell high candidate. and if every closer is a sell high candidate, which kind of negates the whole point.
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