Phatferd wrote:GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Phatferd wrote:I respect your hardwork in putting together that list, however, I never do lists because they don't mean crap.
You can judge all you want position for position, but you can't get an accurate synopsis of teams that way. I'll use 2 teams to make this example easier. I'll use Oak and Ana since they seem to be the focus.
Say you take Catcher and Kendall over Molina. Then you have RF with Vlad over Swisher. By comparing them position for position its even right now because its 1 position to 1. The flaw in this is the gap between Vlad and Swisher is A LOT bigger than Kendall and Molina. These comparisons never work and are not an accurate way to compare teams.
Any comparison is dumb because you have to let the season play out to see what unfolds. When the Angels won in 2002, I believe there were something like 10-20 or close to start the season. My point being, don't take much from the early season outcomes. The Angels have played poorly as has most of the AL West. The A's taking this series won't mean much in September. Of course Oakland showed good things in winning the series and should be, however, if we judge the rest of the season from the first dozen games, then we will all set ourselves up for embarassment.
While in general your point is correct (lists fail to capture the true difference between players), in this example, your assumption that Kendall+Swisher < Vlad+ Molina is wrong.
Over the last 3 years Kendall has averaged 40 runs over a replacement catcher. Molina has averaged 9 runs better. So, that's a +30 for the A's
Vlad has averaged about 70 runs over a replacement OF. Swisher, based on his past performance is projected to be about 30-35 runs better than a replacement OF, which is about a 35-40 run advantage for the A's.
That leaves it a slight (4-9) run advantage for the Angels, (which isn't really significant), but this also overstates it, because Kendall has been more durable than the average catcher. Since the Angels usually replace Bengie with his even more horrific bro, it actually makes the score more in favor of the A's.
So, on balance, it really comes out to be no difference. Kendall+Swisher = Vlad + the Molinas
Seriously take your statistics and do all you want I don't care and I will never accept the whole theory of PECOTA and all that crap.
If you think that Vlad and Molina are only slightly better than Kendall and Swisher then you need to put down the mouse and watch a game.
Swisher's numbers are based on minor league numbers, so don't even try to defend that. Swisher has shown his great prowress so far with his 220 BA.
Not that I disagree with Agnes... but people will never take sabermetrics seriously if things like this are said, even if they're true. People are too satisfied with traditional thinking.