SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:Phatferd wrote:Where has it been proven that its a 50-50 chance? I bet it hasn't and there is no way to prove that.
That is a completely unfounded comment. I think the andecdotal evidence over the past 6-7-8 years disproves that. Are you saying all these wild card teams that have won the WS are the best team? I'm not much of a baseball historian, but I'm sure many of the guys here who are will tell you just what GTWMA has been saying, the best team rarely wins.
I do, I am sorry, but that is what I believe. All the Wild Card does is allow an extra team into the playoffs. They very well could be the best team and due to outside circumstances didn't get going until later in the season. Of all the Wild Card teams to ever win the WS, I truly believe they were the better teams.
Arizona, was a very good team with 2 of the best pitchers of this era along with a Hall of Fame 1st baseman with Gonzo who had a monster year and a bunch of role players.
The Angels I feel were the best team in '02 and didn't get things going til late May. They played baseball so well that season, they moved runners over, stole bases, made productive outs better than anyone I have seen in a long time.
The Marlins had a very good team in 04. Beckett was unhittable, Penny is solid, Pavano was OK. They had great speed and contact guys at the top of that lineup and some good run producers behind them.
Sorry for thinking those teams were better than the others and won the WS.
If luck was a big part of winning in the playoffs then you have to be really really lucky to win 3 series.
Btw, I didn't say the best teams wins 75% of the time for sure. If you read where I said that I was suggesting a number to agree on with RynMan or LBJ, don't remember who. I threw that number out there to see if he agreed. I believe it to be true, and I know you can't prove it, as you can't prove that luck plays a role either.
They are both theories and there is support for both sides. It just matters what side you want to believe and neither is wrong.