I'd go with Lilly also.
1) He's on a better team which will win more games
2) He'll get much better run support
The drawback is fewer strikeouts but Lilly's strikeout numbers aren't that bad (30 in 41.2 innings).
Roger Angell: I was talking with Bob Gibson and I said: 'Are you always this competitive?' He said: 'Oh, I think so. I got a three-year old daughter, and I've played about 500 games of tic-tac-toe with her and she hasn't beat me yet.'