bmcginni wrote:No, this isn't a Pete Rose thread.
Anyone in here bet on baseball games? If so, how about a discussion of some strategies (something more than just looking at Starting Pitchers).
Just look at starting pitching....
thats what i do. Bet on teams that are real good since the spreads always the same. Take Randy johnson all year and you should be happy.
Strasil...what in the world are you talking about? "The spreads always the same"....quite possibly the most astonishing piece of misinformation ever to appear on these pages.
There's this thing called a "money line" in baseball. There's no pointspread. The only thing resembling a pointspread is the "runs line" and there's a price involved there as well.
Also, your advice to simply "take Randy Johnson all year and you should be happy" is absurd. Sure, RJ is likely to win more often than not, but when he doesn't (or the team doesn't when he pitches) you'll have to pay through the nose. I'm not saying a blanket bet on him every time he pitches won't make you money for the season, but considering he'll be laying an average price well in excess of -200 (it was closer to -300 today), that's hardly the recipe for success. No one sharp ever lays that kind of lumber, and in fact virtually every sharp guy I know plays far more dogs than favorites.
As far as the methodology for betting is concerned, you cannot go on starting pitching and be successful long term. If it was that simple, the books would all go bust and that's not happening. There are a number of variables that go into handicapping every game, and determining where there's value. But if you are playing with starting pitching as your key indicator, restrict yourself to playing matchups where you feel you have an edge and you're getting a price. Best example today was Washington with Livan vs. Moehler and the Marlins. Livan has generally pitched well in that park throughout his career, he is clearly superior to Moehler, and the Nationals were a small underdog. That's decent value, and you can do okay playing that way.
If you're looking for a blind system that will get you a net profit over the long haul, consider road dogs that are looking to avoid a three game sweep. It's not a bad way to go, as you can hit 50% and make monet since you're only betting on underdogs.