Bloody Nipples wrote:
LBJackal wrote:Replacement level for holds is higher than for saves (obviously). The higher the replacement level, means a fewer amount of adjusted (actual minus replacement) holds available in the positive player pool, means more value for each hold over replacement. They're tougher to get (Usually top holds guys get 30, and top closers get 45) but that doesn't mean holds aren't more valuable. The switch from primary setup man to closer probably lowers a player's actual value in a league that counts holds (depending on how many holds the setup man was getting).
How do you figure? I agree that the replacement level for holds is higher than for saves (because every closer is owned, while not every holder is owned), but you lose me with the next sentence. Wouldnt the fact that there are so many more guys who get holds than saves make saves more scarce than holds, and thus more valuable?
The fact that there are more holds available on waivers only means that the replacement level will be higher. That makes players who score significantly higher than the replacement level even more valuable, which is kind of counterintuitive.
But think of it this way: 4 holds are free to get on waivers. That's about the replacement level, give or take a bit (this is an average; there are some people with more, and some with less, but the average replacement player has 4). So take away 4 holds from every single pitcher's total holds, even SP's - everybody. Now add up the remaining adjusted holds (adjusted = total minus replacement). That's how many adjusted holds are available to be had. If a guy like Otsuka has 25 Adj HLD then he has a very big portion of the extra holds. There are tons of adjusted saves out there, so no one closer has a big advantage over many others based on his saves alone.
So by more holds being available on waivers, that INCREASES the value of holds above replacement. In short the way it does it, is it erases the value of the holds that marginal RP's get because they're easily replaced. For an extreme example, imagine that 150 pitchers get 50 saves each. And the 151st closer gets 60 saves. Intuitively we'd think that the 60 save closer doens't have much value because there are 150 pitchers who can get you 50 saves. But that intuition would be wrong. The extra 10 saves the 151st pitcher gets you wins you the category, and nobody can catch you. It's the same idea with holds, but less extreme. Otsuka could easily earn a lot more than Gagne, Lidge, or any closer in 2005.
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