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Postby Pochucker » Sat Apr 02, 2005 10:31 pm

Good work Tavish! Used his own methods against him.
And no where did I read where anyone said Rice was as good as Yaz. My description was "a hell of a ballplayer".
Was great clutch hitter- do I have stats to back that up? nope prove me wrong!
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Apr 02, 2005 11:08 pm

First of all, your comment was that Allen was a "much better ball player". At best, I think you can claim that Allen was at best a very slightly better ball player. But, here's why I don't think even that claim can be sustained.

Your numbers stop in 2000, Tavish, when Bagwell was age 32. Here's Allen and Bagwell age 33 on:

Bagwell: 141, 137, 127, 117
Allen: 94, 131, 87, Retired.
As a result, Bagwell is already 40 career win shares ahead of Allen.

Allen's rate stats are better...unfortunately, he averaged only 124 games per season, while Bagwell has averaged 151 games. Cumulatively, over the course of their 14 seasons, that means Bagwell was on the field for more than two full seasons of games more than Allen. Durability matters.

Third, Bagwell was, by most measures I've seen, the superior fielder.

Finally, rather than just looking at first place finishes:
Black Ink: Allen 27, Bagwell 24 and counting
Grey Ink: Allen 159, Bagwell 157 and counting
HOF Standard: Allen 39, Bagwell 59
HOF Monitor: Allen 99, Bagwell 150.

So, once you get beyond the hitting rate stats where Allen has a slight edge, and factor in other things that are also important like longevity, durability, fielding, I think you have to give Bagwell the nod. They are both among the 20 best first basemen to ever play.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Apr 02, 2005 11:11 pm

Pochucker wrote:Good work Tavish! Used his own methods against him.
And no where did I read where anyone said Rice was as good as Yaz. My description was "a hell of a ballplayer".
Was great clutch hitter- do I have stats to back that up? nope prove me wrong!


How'd Rice do in the post-season?
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Postby quietstorm » Sat Apr 02, 2005 11:55 pm

Tavish wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Tavish wrote:Allen was a much better offensive player than Bagwell. He is ranked low by James A) because he had a much shorter career B) James doesn't like controversial players like Allen or Hornsby.


On what objective evidence are you basing that claim, Tavish? There's no real difference to a slight edge for Bagwell using every measure I've seen.


How does Bagwell get a slight edge in the numbers you used earlier?

From James' Win Shares (this was through 2000):

Career Win Shares
Bagwell 287
Allen 342

Highest 3 Win Share years:
Bagwell 41, 37, 32
Allen 41, 40, 35

Top 5 years Win Share total:
Bagwell 163
Allen 170

Win Share per 162
Bagwell 31.50
Allen 31.68

Career OPS+
Bagwell 150
Allen 156

Allen 7-time All-Star, led the league in OPS 4 times, HR 2 times, OBP 2 times, SLG 3 times.
Bagwell 4-time All-Star, OPS 1 time, OBP never, SLG 1 time.

As we all know, All-Star appearances are the end-all to this discussion. I think Bobby Abreu, who I've now mentioned twice, is a pretty good example of why AS appearances mean nothing. If you really want to deal with awards, though, they both won ROY and a single MVP. Bagwell won a Gold Glove.

OPS? It's okay, but it's flawed. HRs? Flawed. SLG? Flawed. You can't just pick those stats and say that Allen was a better hitter.

If you really want to use them, though, let's look at multi-year peaks:

Translated 3-year OPS Peak
Richie Allen: 3.215 (1.072 average)
Jeff Bagwell: 3.243 (1.081 average)

Translated 5-year OPS Peak
Richie Allen: 5.147 (1.029 average)
Jeff Bagwell: 5.301 (1.060 average)
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Postby Tavish » Sun Apr 03, 2005 1:01 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:First of all, your comment was that Allen was a "much better ball player". At best, I think you can claim that Allen was at best a very slightly better ball player. But, here's why I don't think even that claim can be sustained.


No, my comment was he was a much better offensive player and would probably argue he was a better defensive player as well but I don't really see the need. Neither were outstanding defensive players and neither were horrible.


Finally, rather than just looking at first place finishes:
Black Ink: Allen 27, Bagwell 24 and counting
Grey Ink: Allen 159, Bagwell 157 and counting
HOF Standard: Allen 39, Bagwell 59
HOF Monitor: Allen 99, Bagwell 150.

So, once you get beyond the hitting rate stats where Allen has a slight edge, and factor in other things that are also important like longevity, durability, fielding, I think you have to give Bagwell the nod. They are both among the 20 best first basemen to ever play.

I already conceeded that Allen isn't ranked as high as other players due to his shortened career. The hitter rate stats is the simplest and most efficient way to compare which player was the most productive during their time. I agree that they are both top 20 (I would put them both in the top 10) 1B of all time. I just disagree that Bagwell should be above Allen.
Last edited by Tavish on Sun Apr 03, 2005 2:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Tavish » Sun Apr 03, 2005 1:11 am

quietstorm wrote:As we all know, All-Star appearances are the end-all to this discussion. I think Bobby Abreu, who I've now mentioned twice, is a pretty good example of why AS appearances mean nothing. If you really want to deal with awards, though, they both won ROY and a single MVP. Bagwell won a Gold Glove.


Nice straw man, the number of All-Star appearances was definitely the focus of my argument. /sarcasm

OPS? It's okay, but it's flawed. HRs? Flawed. SLG? Flawed. You can't just pick those stats and say that Allen was a better hitter.


It is better to use historical Davenport Translations? Comparing players across eras is always a tricky subject and the only real device we have is to compare the players to the other players in their era. When compared to the rest of the hitters in the league Allen is outperforms Bagwell.
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Postby Pochucker » Sun Apr 03, 2005 1:35 am

Richie Allen also suffered severe hand injury in his prime(sure evereyone knows about it) . Cut tendons in his hand while "pushing" his car(hand went through headlight.) He was never the same after it.
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Postby quietstorm » Sun Apr 03, 2005 3:12 am

OPS? It's okay, but it's flawed. HRs? Flawed. SLG? Flawed. You can't just pick those stats and say that Allen was a better hitter.


It is better to use historical Davenport Translations? Comparing players across eras is always a tricky subject and the only real device we have is to compare the players to the other players in their era. When compared to the rest of the hitters in the league Allen is outperforms Bagwell.[/quote]
So, basically, there's no way to make a valid measure. The translated OPS stats I was using were NOT adjusted for all-time, AFAIK. I believe they were adjusted for a single season.

How about we use WARP1, which is adjusted for single seasons?

Career WARP1
Richie Allen: 94.4
Jeff Bagwell: 125.2

Three-year WARP1 Peak
Richie Allen: 32.2
Jeff Bagwell: 32.8

Five-year WARP1 Peak
Richie Allen: 47.9
Jeff Bagwell: 52.1


Okay, so Bagwell's full career is better. Their short-term peaks are pretty much a wash. When you go into five-year peaks, Bagwell starts to pull away. Allen was as good as Bagwell, in his short prime. But in a longer period, Bagwell is better.

So, what's the argument here? Who was a better hitter? I'd say Bagwell, slightly. Who had a better career? Bagwell, without question.

[Edit/Addendum: My argument wasn't a straw man argument. I clearly addressed your other points when comparing translated OPS. I think OPS was probably your primary argument, and addressed it. The extent of my straw man was merely an attention-drawing scheme ;)]
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Postby Tavish » Sun Apr 03, 2005 3:41 am

quietstorm wrote:So, basically, there's no way to make a valid measure.

Not really, which is why debates like these are so much fun. No one can really be right or wrong, its all in the eye of the beholder.

The translated OPS stats I was using were NOT adjusted for all-time, AFAIK. I believe they were adjusted for a single season.

If they are not then they do no good unless you can put them in the context of the league OPS. The offensive enviornment of the 1970s was normally at least .100 points lower in OPS than those of the 1990s.

How about we use WARP1, which is adjusted for single seasons?


You can if you want, it will basically tell you Bagwell was more durable which I've already conceded. Per game played Allen will still come out ahead.

So, what's the argument here? Who was a better hitter? I'd say Bagwell, slightly. Who had a better career? Bagwell, without question.


I think we have reached the Koufax paradox. It comes up basically anytime people start to argue who is the better player. Peak vs Overall Value.

[Edit/Addendum: My argument wasn't a straw man argument. I clearly addressed your other points when comparing translated OPS. I think OPS was probably your primary argument, and addressed it. The extent of my straw man was merely an attention-drawing scheme ;-)]


No need to get my attention, normally I just ignore things like that but figured I would let you know your Jedi mind tricks will do no good. ;-)
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Postby quietstorm » Sun Apr 03, 2005 3:53 am

No, no, it was to draw attention away from the other argument! It's sort of like a supervillain monologuing to draw attention away from his real scheme, y'know?
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