Return to Baseball Leftovers

Can Ichiro hit .400?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby SHOCKandAWE » Thu Mar 31, 2005 12:16 am

I hope so! I would love to see a record get broken with no controversy! Little Ichiro isnt on steroids do you think?
Image
SHOCKandAWE
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe RankerCafe MusketeerPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 3376
(Past Year: -146)
Joined: 8 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Pennsylvania

Postby HOOTIE » Thu Mar 31, 2005 2:29 am

I think he has very little chance. Like was stated, he was way over his norm in hit rate %. Even with the unreal 2nd half, he fell way short (28 points). He would need those 3 months to become 6 months. It's the 1st time he hit over 360. I doubt he ever hits 370 again. Plus the park is against him. Safeco has a poor average index, and Ichiro hit 338 there, versus 405 on road.
Smells Like Teen Spirit
HOOTIE
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe Ranker
Posts: 15310
(Past Year: 363)
Joined: 12 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Pearl Jam country, right next door to Nirvana, Soundgarden, and Alice in Chains.

Re: Can Ichiro hit .400?

Postby Conner » Sat May 07, 2005 1:51 am

Conner wrote:
pokerplaya wrote:
In the second half of last year, he was incredibly lucky. I'm not even sure I feel like explaining why...because I've done it here before, and people just don't seem to enjoy hearing it.

Basically, 46% of his balls batted in play ended up being hits. The average on that stat is about 30-32%. For a speedy guy like Ichiro, the average is a little bit higher (his was 34% in the first half of 2004, 33% the year before, and 35% the year before that). 46% is just flat out abnormal...and it can be attributed to nothing but sheer luck, which completely skewed his overall batting average last season.


Interesting analysis. Hadn't heard that argument before.

Question: Are you taking into consideration what kind of balls batted into play? If you breakdown ground ball/fly ball ratio, I'd imagine that it would explain some of this overwhelming discrepency. Ball on the ground is a lot more valuable than putting a ball in the air, especially when you have above average speed.


He did hit more groundballs last year than he usually has....But at the same time, his infield hit rate went down. His line drive rate also went down, which isn't a good thing.

That shows me that an incredible amount of those groundballs just happened to find holes.

I don't mind the argument that he changed his approach a little bit, and decided to hit the ball on the ground even more than usual, which was the reason for his increased batting average....And I wouldn't be surprised if he liked the outcome of the strategy, and stuck with it this year....which would probably keep his average higher than the .315 of the 2 and a half previous years. But I just don't see any reason to believe that it will be too much higher. The .423 of the second half of last season had a boatload of luck behind it.


I think that, in a thread a while ago, I predicted that he'd be "about a .310 hitter" this year. If he has decieded to change his approach, though...I wouldn't be surprised with maybe .325-.330 or so....not much higher than that, though. Certainly not the .350-.360 that many here seem to be expecting from him.


Well, wee're about 1 month into the season (the Mariner's first game was April 4th...but they didn't have a game on May 5th, so I'm only one game late).

Anyway...Ichiro's at .325.
Conner
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 758
(Past Year: -2)
Joined: 22 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby pokerplaya » Sat May 07, 2005 2:59 am

Congrats! You've correctly predicted 1/6 of the season! ;-)

In all seriousness, it's way too early to bring this up. Try again in September, and it will be much more credible. You may be right, but not yet.
Last edited by pokerplaya on Sat May 07, 2005 3:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
pokerplaya
Kitchen Staff
Kitchen Staff

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 12578
(Past Year: -231)
Joined: 18 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby beltrans_boy » Sat May 07, 2005 3:01 am

pokerplaya wrote:Congrats! You've correctly predicted 1/6 of the season! ;-)


Ichiro won't hit .400

That being said, a .350 (with over 700 ABs! 8-o) leadoff hitter in a potent lineup that steals bases is still VERY valuable.
[size=10]"Men are apt to mistake the strength of their feeling for the strength of their argument." [/size]
beltrans_boy
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3075
(Past Year: -17)
Joined: 15 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: crusing down the street in my six-fo'

Postby pokerplaya » Sat May 07, 2005 3:03 am

beltrans_boy wrote:
pokerplaya wrote:Congrats! You've correctly predicted 1/6 of the season! ;-)


Ichiro won't hit .400

That being said, a .350 (with over 700 ABs! 8-o) leadoff hitter in a potent lineup that steals bases is still VERY valuable.


I agree. I never said I thought he would hit .400, I just said he would be my most likely candidate. I still don't think that .350 is out of the question.
pokerplaya
Kitchen Staff
Kitchen Staff

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 12578
(Past Year: -231)
Joined: 18 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Conner » Sat May 07, 2005 3:03 am

pokerplaya wrote:Congrats! You've correctly predicted 1/6 of the season! ;-)


I promise to keep updating (periodically) throughout the season....whether he improves or not.

I swear....if he eventually hits .380, I'll be sure to remind everyone I was wrong. ;-D
Conner
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 758
(Past Year: -2)
Joined: 22 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby beltrans_boy » Sat May 07, 2005 3:05 am

pokerplaya wrote:
beltrans_boy wrote:
pokerplaya wrote:Congrats! You've correctly predicted 1/6 of the season! ;-)


Ichiro won't hit .400

That being said, a .350 (with over 700 ABs! 8-o) leadoff hitter in a potent lineup that steals bases is still VERY valuable.


I agree. I never said I thought he would hit .400, I just said he would be my most likely candidate. I still don't think that .350 is out of the question.


He's obviously the most likely candidate to hit .400, especially with Bonds' impending retirement, I don't think you can debate that.

EDIT: ...and by "likely" I mean it in relative terms. I don't think we'll see a .400 hitter for a while. Ichiro included.
Last edited by beltrans_boy on Sat May 07, 2005 3:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
[size=10]"Men are apt to mistake the strength of their feeling for the strength of their argument." [/size]
beltrans_boy
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3075
(Past Year: -17)
Joined: 15 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: crusing down the street in my six-fo'

Postby pokerplaya » Sat May 07, 2005 3:05 am

Conner wrote:
pokerplaya wrote:Congrats! You've correctly predicted 1/6 of the season! ;-)


I promise to keep updating (periodically) throughout the season....whether he improves or not.

I swear....if he eventually hits .380, I'll be sure to remind everyone I was wrong. ;-D


Again, not to be a jerk, I never said he'd hit .400. I was just posing the question: Could he? I still say he could, though I wouldn't bet on it. Put simply, he'd be my favorite if I had to pick someone.
pokerplaya
Kitchen Staff
Kitchen Staff

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 12578
(Past Year: -231)
Joined: 18 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Conner » Sat May 07, 2005 3:08 am

pokerplaya wrote:
Conner wrote:
pokerplaya wrote:Congrats! You've correctly predicted 1/6 of the season! ;-)


I promise to keep updating (periodically) throughout the season....whether he improves or not.

I swear....if he eventually hits .380, I'll be sure to remind everyone I was wrong. ;-D


Again, not to be a jerk, I never said he'd hit .400. I was just posing the question: Could he? I still say he could, though I wouldn't bet on it. Put simply, he'd be my favorite if I had to pick someone.


I didn't say you did say that.

This threead is from.......what? 5 weeks ago?

I have no idea what anyone said in this thread, besides me.
Conner
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 758
(Past Year: -2)
Joined: 22 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests

cron