CubsFan7724 wrote:Its just way too difficult to accurately predict them, so it should be one of the last things you use to judge a pitcher by, only as a tiebreaker.
i disagree with this statement -- if that was the case then you should be taking j vazquez before c pavano -- which virtually no one is. In leagues where wins get you points (h2h point leagues for example), wins often make the biggest differance (my league for instance gives 10 pts for a win, -5 for a loss, 1.5 I/P, and 1 pt per K, -.5BB, -1 ER) -- a pitcher could have a miserable 5 inning outing, giving up 5 or 6 ER's, 1K, but still get the win on a good team, netting you positive points on the day -- where as someone in ariz could pitch 7 innings, 8Ks, 2ER, and get the loss -- and both pitchers have the same value
In leagues where wins matter you HAVE to try to accurately project them,that aside, I go more on team strength than pitcher projections (so bump yankee, redsox, ranger, oriole pitchers, slide down diamondback, detriot pitchers)
its a hard stat to project, but one that you need to