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The value of B.J. Ryan?

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Postby GiantFan666 » Thu Mar 24, 2005 5:07 am

bselig wrote:Didn't 'someone point out a few days ago that on average teams with more wins will have more save opportunities than teams with less wins...


Not sure of what was posted a few days ago, but more wins doesn't necessarily equate more save opps. For example, last year the red sox won 98 games in the regular season, but Foulke only had 32 saves, whereas the rockies won 68 games but out of the 68, Chacon had 35 saves. For saves, its not about winning per se, its about winning by 3 runs or less (and yes I understand there are other situations where you can win by more than 3 and get a save!)
In fact, last year the Reds led MLB with 78 sv ops while the D-backs
who had a record of 51-111 still had 55 sv opps
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Postby .38 Special » Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:32 am

GiantFan666 wrote:
bselig wrote:Didn't 'someone point out a few days ago that on average teams with more wins will have more save opportunities than teams with less wins...


Not sure of what was posted a few days ago, but more wins doesn't necessarily equate more save opps. For example, last year the red sox won 98 games in the regular season, but Foulke only had 32 saves, whereas the rockies won 68 games but out of the 68, Chacon had 35 saves. For saves, its not about winning per se, its about winning by 3 runs or less (and yes I understand there are other situations where you can win by more than 3 and get a save!)
In fact, last year the Reds led MLB with 78 sv ops while the D-backs
who had a record of 51-111 still had 55 sv opps


I agree with this. If a team is weak offensively, or with SP, then the save ops will be there even if the team stinks. It seemed like the Sox brought Foulke in even with a larger then 3 run lead, or at a tied game. He would pitch his inning or to and be done. In April and May the Sox played a lot of extra inning games, their schedule was all screwed up, the games were being won or lost long after Foulke pitched his two innings. You cannot predict that stuff in a stat cat, you just have to roll with it. You just need to try and get the most solid guys you can and roll with em in my opinion.
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Postby Surfs up » Thu Mar 24, 2005 9:01 am

As in a horse race or any other race. Its not how you start the race. Its how you finish. I truely believe Ryan loses the job on the back stretch. It may not be Julio that replaces him but he in my mind is a one year wonder.He has as much chance to remain the closer as Affedt does in KC.IMO
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Postby steve_0710 » Thu Mar 24, 2005 9:09 am

Not sure how Ryan will do, but I think the Orioles are waiting for Julio to work out some of his problems then they will deal him. I think Julio will be on another team by the All-Star break. They seem to be fed up with him.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Mar 24, 2005 11:25 am

Surfs up wrote:As in a horse race or any other race. Its not how you start the race. Its how you finish. I truely believe Ryan loses the job on the back stretch. It may not be Julio that replaces him but he in my mind is a one year wonder.He has as much chance to remain the closer as Affedt does in KC.IMO


One year wonder? Look at his last three seasons and how he has progressed. His K, H and HR rates are at an elite level. He also cut down his BB rate dramatically even though there is still room for improvement. THis guy is not a fluke. He can flat out pitch and he showed that he can close too. Julio will be out the door as soon as he has any trade value.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Thu Mar 24, 2005 11:38 am

He was terrific last year but as a closer he will have to pitch to both righties and lefties so they can't protect him as a specialist. His numbers will not be as good this year but he will be a decent closer.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Mar 24, 2005 12:25 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:He was terrific last year but as a closer he will have to pitch to both righties and lefties so they can't protect him as a specialist. His numbers will not be as good this year but he will be a decent closer.


I agree with that. He pitched a lot more against righties in 04 and still improved every stat.

He was filthy against lefties but he was still darn good against righties.
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Postby steve_0710 » Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:15 pm

Ryan vs. Lefties

ERA: 1.27 (2003); 0.00 (2004)
AVG: .186 (2003); .094 (2004)
SLG: .216 (2003); .160 (2004)

Ryan vs. Righties

ERA: 6.14 (2003); 3.62 (2004)
AVG: .273 (2003); .252 (2004)
SLG: .364 (2003); .327 (2004)

So he did improve in 2004 against righties, but enough to be closer? ;-D :-t

Something that may say something about Ryan's closer ability is ERA vs. days rest:

0 days rest - 2.08
1 days rest - 2.70
2 days rest - 1.69
3-5 days rest - 2.35

Can he pitch back to back and be effective? :-?
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Postby OREO fan » Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:55 pm

watching julio try to close a game is truly painful

i am hoping (and expecting) that ryan will be the closer throughout the year - mazzilli is in love with him - they went out and got kline who should be able to take over the "lefty-specialist" duties
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