doesn't the VORP factor in the park though?
I am more leery of any SP off of the dregs of the league teams and neither TB nor CO does not really seem likely to generate many W this year so, even if Kazmir is lights out in ERA, WHIP and K, that's only 1/2 the cats. If you have two SP and one's 'close' I'd take the one off the winner or the cheaper one. Given that Kazmirhype> Francis' hype, I'd shoot for Francis at that level. Maybe Kazmir will light it up but that seems to be about the same probability as Kazmir lighting it up.
Not to mention, Francis gets division matchups on the road in SF (why play Bonds vs. the Rockies, if they get lucky, we can PH him late...), LA (who needs offense w/ a pitchers' park), SD (Petco's heavy air, say no more...) and AZ (see above, although their park IS friendlier for hitters...). OTOH, Kazmir gets to visit Yankee Stadium, Fenway and Camden Yards, all of which are not going to be too hospitable as far as matchups. Kazmir MAY be a better pitcher but how's he gonna pitch in those conditions? I think that Francis may be a better value. I missed out on him in one league as I am stacked w/ better SP but have my eye on him for the other one. I'll pass on Kazmir this year.