Everything you just stated can also be said about Arthur Rhodes. I'm not going to draft Ryan when I can get more of a sure thing in Baez.
We can do a bet if you want. What shall it be? Save percentage? I'll go with the under if it's 85%.
Actually, no, it can't.
At age 28 Rhodes had 8 seasons in MLB. Like Ryan, half of them had been above average, but the other half had been far below average. None of them had been nearly as good as Ryan's two best seasons. At the same age, Ryan was a 20% better than average pitcher. Rhodes was a slightly below average pitcher. During the three years prior to the attempt to make him a closer, Rhodes K/9 went from 11.0 to 10.6 to 8.0. In other words, completely the opposite of Ryan's trajectory. His K/BB went from 7, to 6, to 2.5. Again, completely the opposite of Ryan.
No closer is a sure thing, especially not one like Baez. But, sure, I'll take the over.