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Postby Mordraken » Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:19 pm

nola wrote:He is in a 24 team league... Can you really take a few young bats and expect to get any of those pitchers around #80? Man, I'd love to play in a league like that...

Here are the top 80 players under 32 that MIGHT go before Pedro, Clemens, Schilling & Randy (since those guys are quite old). I'm not saying that these guys SHOULD be taken, but pick an example - 40 year old Randy Johnson or 27 year old Roy Halladay. Johnson will pitch for maybe 2-3 more years? Halladay likely a decade at least. My guess is that MOST of these people will go before all of those four pitchers are gone. In keeper leagues, older players come at a huge discount.

Name, Team, Pos, Age
Todd Helton* Col 1b 30
Albert Pujols StL 1b 24
Adrian Beltre LA 3b 25
Lance Berkman# Hou rf 28
Manny Ramirez Bos lf 32
Scott Rolen StL 3b 29
J.D. Drew* Atl rf 28
Travis Hafner* Cle dh 27
Vladimir Guerrero Ana rf 28
Bobby Abreu* Phi rf 30
Adam Dunn* Cin lf 24
Aramis Ramirez ChN 3b 26
Troy Glaus Ana dh 27
Mark Teixeira# Tex 1b 24
Carlos Beltran# cf 27
Sean Casey* Cin 1b 29
Hideki Matsui* NYA lf 30
Jason Bay Pit lf 25
Carlos Delgado* Tor 1b 32
Aaron Rowand ChA cf 26
Eric Chavez* Oak 3b 26
Eli Marrero Atl lf 30
Miguel Tejada Bal ss 28
Ivan Rodriguez Det c 32
Carlos Lee ChA lf 28
Alex Rodriguez NYA 3b 28
Jorge Posada# NYA c 32
Miguel Cabrera Flo rf 21
Justin Morneau* Min 1b 23
Jason Varitek# Bos c 32
Mike Lowell Flo 3b 30
Ichiro Suzuki* Sea rf 30
Lyle Overbay* Mil 1b 27
Johnny Damon* Bos cf 30
Hank Blalock* Tex 3b 23
Aubrey Huff* Tam 3b 27
Craig Wilson Pit rf 27
Victor Martinez# Cle c 25
Ray Durham# SF 2b 32
Chipper Jones# Atl 3b 32
Nomar Garciaparra ss 30
Magglio Ordonez ChA rf 30
Andruw Jones Atl cf 27
Billy Wagner* Phi cl 32
Eric Gagne LA cl 28
Johan Santana* Min sp 25
Brad Lidge Hou cl 27
Keith Foulke Bos cl 31
Ben Sheets Mil sp 25
Jason Isringhausen StL cl 31
Jason Schmidt SF sp 31
Dan Kolb Mil cl 29
Oliver Perez* Pit sp 22
Brad Radke Min sp 31
Guillermo Mota mr 30
Zack Greinke KC sp 20
A.J. Burnett Flo sp 27
Carl Pavano Flo sp 28
Travis Harper Tam mr 28
Octavio Dotel cl 30
Jake Peavy SD sp 23
Carlos Zambrano ChN sp 23
Freddy Garcia sp 28
Josh Beckett Flo sp 24
Damaso Marte* ChA mr 29
Roy Oswalt Hou sp 26
Mark Buehrle* ChA sp 25
Tim Hudson Oak sp 28
Kerry Wood ChN sp 27
Matt Clement ChN sp 29
Javier Vazquez NYA sp 27
Matt Morris StL sp 29
Rich Harden Oak sp 22
Joel Pineiro Sea sp 25
Roy Halladay Tor sp 27
Eric Milton* Phi sp 28
Mark Prior ChN sp 23
Mark Mulder* Oak sp 26
Wade Miller Hou sp 27
Dontrelle Willis* Flo sp 22
Barry Zito* Oak sp 26
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Postby nola » Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:30 pm

Oh c'mon, Eli Marrero is on that list. Marte is on that list. If you ever are in a league, keeper or not, where some jacks** takes Eli Marrero over RJ or Clemens or Pedro, quit and find a real league. Older guys come at some discount, but nothing close to that. Thats why RJ is mid to late 1st round. If he was 30, he would go #1.
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Postby bd3521 » Fri Mar 11, 2005 6:25 pm

Draft is approaching. Any else have any input?
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Postby nola » Mon Mar 14, 2005 11:47 am

Late in the draft, look for young pitchers with a K rate of about 6.5 - 7.5 / 9 innings.

Ganarally, avoid pitchers giving up much more than 1 hit per inning.

Its a pretty big group; some will hit, some will miss. I've used this strategy in my keeper league (keep 9) for the last 3 seasons, and have picked up Oliver Perez, Santana, and AJ Burnett. Along with a parade of busts- Padilla, Brett Myers, Foppert, Kurt Ainsworth... I don't have any math to prove that it is more than luck, but the results so far are encouraging.

Early in the draft, don't pass on a good older guy in favor of a younger guy who isn't going to produce this season. There are plenty of young guys to grab late. Draft some oldies too for a shot at winning this season.
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Postby Cooner » Mon Mar 14, 2005 12:05 pm

bd3521 wrote:bueller?

had to reply, if only cause this is the best "bump" post ever ;-D

Like others have said- make sure you get a young, stud hitter first. That guy will be the backbone of your team for 10+ years, and that kind of guy is impossible to get in a very small or very large league after the initial draft.

From there until mid rounds, draft as usual- best value on the table. Unless it's a very good league, you'll find managers avoiding guys who are "old." But some of those "old" guys are mid-30s and have 3-4 years left in them... those are always great picks. The classic mistake draft-wide in dynasty leagues is to take too young in favor of too old. For instance, last night was the redraft for a small dynasty league I play in... we keep 14, half of the team. I had kept basically all hitting and was desparate for pitching. After taking Greinke in the 2nd and Odalis in the 3rd, I was still able to grab Maddox in the 5th. The funniest part was the two guys after me were both complaining cause they were gonna take Odalis had I not taken him, but no one mentioned the Maddox pick. I was jumping out of my chair when I got Maddox so late.

My point is just that it's ok to reach a little for a young guy if you're pretty certain he'll be solid, but keep an eye out for the older guys who are falling, and those old guys don't have to be Schilling, Pedro, RJ, etc... guys like Maddox, Smoltz, Steve Finley, even Thome and Javy Lopez, will probably slip a bit further than they deserve.
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