Brian Giles...comeback player or waste of skin?

[quicksilver8]

Brian Giles was just horrid last year compared to how high he was drafted by thousdands of hopefull fantasy owners. Now that the whole steroid issue has come out, I question whether or not that had anything to do with Brian Giles' abilities? The guy was as thick as an 80 year old redwood treetrunk.

What do you see B.Giles doing this year? Will he return to .290 30 90 with a handfull of steals?

[RugbyD]

the ballpark is more of a concern than the riods possibility

[RynMan]

That park kills him. The Padres should just build a team of speedsters to hit a bunch or triples. Giles wont hit anymore than 30 HR again. 25 is more likely.

.280, 25, 90.

You can pick one of them up at your local waiver wire.

[Rhino Tuff]

I like Giles as a comeback player. He wasn't that bad last year considering. I think he will adjust to his surroundings and his ballpark this year, and I haven't heard him too much linking with steriods...

[mikegp]

I'm not a big fan of Giles this year. Look for him to put up the same numbers that he did last season.

[quietstorm]

That park is simply atrocious for hitters. But, it wasn't just a park issue for Giles. His home/away splits:

Home: .287/.376/.488; 45 R, 41 RBI; .180 ISO
Away: .282/.372/.462 ; 52 R, 53 RBI; .201 ISO

The R/RBI stats are more indicative of his teammates, I think, who may have had an easier time getting on base and driving him home while out of Petco. Giles, however, had a worse OBP and SLG at Petco.

Check out his 2004 splits again his 2003 splits.

He absolutely fell apart against lefties, last year (SLG went from .476 to .460 to .351 against lefties over the past three years). I can't find any splits about how he hit lefties at home versus away, so I'm not certain if it's a Petco issue, but I doubt it. I could compile a list of box scores at Petco and away from Petco, but that'd just be too much work...

If anybody has those splits, let me know.

[Edit: His EQBA for last year was .298, though; that ranks him 8th among MLB outfielders with 600+ PA.]

[Yoda]

Since I live in San Diego, I saw plenty of Padres games in 04. I must say that Giles, along with many other hitters, had a HR turned into a lazy flyball or hit off the top of the scoreboard.

The ball park is brutal on hitters. I don't have the references in front of me but I think it was especially tough on lefties. That being said, Giles is clearly on the decline. I think he can maintain this level for at least a couple of years and perhaps even get one more power spike but as long as he hits in that park, I wouldn't expect more than 30 HRs.

Rynman posted very similar numbers to what I'm projecting.

[RynMan]

He absolutely fell apart against lefties, last year (SLG went from .476 to .460 to .351 against lefties over the past three years). I can't find any splits about how he hit lefties at home versus away, so I'm not certain if it's a Petco issue, but I doubt it. I could compile a list of box scores at Petco and away from Petco, but that'd just be too much work...

If anybody has those splits, let me know.

VS LHP
Home .221 AVG, .267 OBP, .346 SLG
Away .252 AVG, .305 OBP. .355 SLG

[quietstorm]

Thanks. Looks like Giles is decent enough against lefties while away from Petco. I'd guess home against righters ir probably something like a .300 BA, looking at the vs. LHP splits.

[Iconoclastic]

Don't forget about his double digit steals.

.290 90 25 90 12. No longer the .300-30-100 masher he used to be, but he's still worth starting in your OF.