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Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2005 1:07 am
hybrid wrote:
AcidRock23 wrote:I wonder what Jeremy Bonderman would make of the humongous theoretical debate that has erupted surrounding his projected performance?

"Just like Rick Ankiel, Bonderman has decided to switch and become Det OF..."

Haha, I feel bad for Ankiel .... but I don't know how you battle back for so many years, just to get frustrated during the off season and quit.

he's not quitting dammit!! Eckstein is expendable if he gets whacked by a hard slider to the cutoff man!!

Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2005 2:42 am
LB, your formula sounds similar to the one used by BP to calculate their PERA. Are you familiar with it? It's based off of league-equivalent performance rating of Hit, K, BB and HR rates. They have Bonderman's 2003 PERA at 4.87.

More importantly for this discussion, they have Bonderman's 2004 PERA at 3.74, compared to his 4.89 actual ERA. Now that's juicy!

Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2005 3:02 am
ramble2 wrote:LB, your formula sounds similar to the one used by BP to calculate their PERA. Are you familiar with it? It's based off of league-equivalent performance rating of Hit, K, BB and HR rates. They have Bonderman's 2003 PERA at 4.87.

More importantly for this discussion, they have Bonderman's 2004 PERA at 3.74, compared to his 4.89 actual ERA. Now that's juicy!

Nope, don't know about BP's PERA. I had Bonderman's 2003 ~ERA at 4.75 which is pretty close to their's. But my 2004 ~ERA was 4.37, I have no clue how they'd get something as low as 3.74, that seems pretty far-fetched.

Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2005 3:24 am
Ron Shandler (Baseball Forecaster) uses "xERA", which has a formula of:

(.575 x H/9) + (.94 x HR/9) + (.28 x BB/9) - (.01 x K/9) - Normalizing Factor (which he describes as "usually somewhere around 2.77 and varies by league and year").

With that formula, Bonderman's expected ERA last year was 3.33. Shandler projects Bonderman to have a 4.27 ERA next year, with an xERA of 3.34.

Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2005 3:25 am
GameOn wrote:In yahoo drafts I consistently see Bonderman and Grienke being picked before all of the following pitchers:
Freddy Garcia
Odalis Perez
Bartolo Colon
C.C. Sabathia
Livan Hernandez
Mark Buehrle
Brandon Webb
Kevin Brown
Matt Morris
Jeff Weaver
Randy Wolf

Joel Pineiro

It may just be me but I would take ALL of those pitcher over Bonderman or Grienke...and I am sure that most of the cafe regulars would take at least half of them over Bonderman. Yahoo just has Bonderman and Grienke rated so high and Yahoo has plenty of idiotic owners who do not have a clue about baseball who will draft them over a Freddy Garcia or Bartolo Colon.

I would rank Bondo and Greinke ahead of the players in Violet. Thats just me though, some of the guys are very close.

I'm with the Bread man, though I'd take Wolfie ahead of JB.

Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2005 3:29 am
Conner wrote:Ron Shandler (Baseball Forecaster) uses "xERA", which has a formula of:

(.575 x H/9) + (.94 x HR/9) + (.28 x BB/9) - (.01 x K/9) - Normalizing Factor (which he describes as "usually somewhere around 2.77 and varies by league and year").

With that formula, Bonderman's expected ERA last year was 3.33. Shandler projects Bonderman to have a 4.27 ERA next year, with an xERA of 3.34.

How is his 2005 xERA different than his expected ERA? Is xERA supposed to be team and park independant? If so, how do they get such a discrepency between the two? On the surface the two formula's (mine and BF's) are essentially the exact same thing (Taking K, BB, HR, and H into account using linear weights and adjusting with a player-specific multiplier) so I don't see how they get low 3's ERA for him in 2004 and 2005, and still project a low 4's ERA

Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2005 3:34 am
LBJackal wrote:
Conner wrote:Ron Shandler (Baseball Forecaster) uses "xERA", which has a formula of:

(.575 x H/9) + (.94 x HR/9) + (.28 x BB/9) - (.01 x K/9) - Normalizing Factor (which he describes as "usually somewhere around 2.77 and varies by league and year").

With that formula, Bonderman's expected ERA last year was 3.33. Shandler projects Bonderman to have a 4.27 ERA next year, with an xERA of 3.34.

How is his 2005 xERA different than his expected ERA? Is xERA supposed to be team and park independant? If so, how do they get such a discrepency between the two? On the surface the two formula's (mine and BF's) are essentially the exact same thing (Taking K, BB, HR, and H into account using linear weights and adjusting with a player-specific multiplier) so I don't see how they get low 3's ERA for him in 2004 and 2005, and still project a low 4's ERA

I don't understand it at all, to be honest with you. I was going to say that in my post, but I figured I was simply missing something.

I suppose it's explained somewhere in the book...I'll definitely have to check it out.

Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2005 11:20 am
ramble2 wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:
ramble2 wrote:I'm a bit pressed for time, so can't really make the case, but thought I'd put it on record that I'm on the Bonderman band wagon. He does seem to be going earlier than is probably warranted. However, when I draft I don't mind taking guys I really want a bit earlier than I think they should go. (Better than taking a player everyone else THINKS should go earlier and losing out on the players you want because they get taken in the 'right' round.)

Am I sure he'll bust out this year? No. Do I think he's a strong candidate for a breakout year? Absolutely. And in my keeper league I want in on that action before it happens, rather than to be on the sidelines.

Strong second half indicators, good base-line sabermatic numbers, nice Baseball Prospectus write up. Yup, he's one I want.

Mookie and LB, I can't remember where each of you stood on Loaiza last year. I think LB was on board the Loaiza wagon. I was most definitely not. Mookie I can't remember. I think Bonderman could be the anti-Loaiza here. You guys up for a bet? Here are the terms I propose:

Choose one to bet on:

A. Bonderman in 2005 outperforms Loaiza 2004;
B. Bonderman in 2005 outperforms Loaiza 2005 (not much of a bet, really, but hey, if you want to take it).

Loser has to change their avatar next off-season. If I lose, I get a Loaiza avatar. If you lose, you get a Bonderman avatar. Game?

First of all - why did you put a link to Amazon.com in your post

Second, not a huge Loaiza guy. My post was about him being taken before some guys that I'm sure will outperform him. I mentioned Radke in my original post. Take for example the Cafe Challenge slow draft that's going on right now.

Bonderman 10th round
Odalis Perez 12th round

I would take the bet if I got to pick Radke or Perez.

Even though I'm around here a lot more than you and your humiliation will not be as severe I will still take the bet.

Bonderman outperforms Radke (5x5 standard roto post 2005 dollar value) and I will wear a Bonderman avatar for (the offseason, a year? 1,000 posts? whatever). Radke outperforms Bonderman and you wear a Canadian flag avatar for your next 1,000 posts.

deal?

Perez and Radke, eh? Those are interesting choices. I actually think both of them are underrated, and agree that Bonderman should probably be taken after both of them - though it's much closer with Radke than Perez. I'm probably more in agreement with your post than I originally thought.

Still, I'm game. Let's see how Bonderman stacks up with Radke at the end of the season. (I won't take the Perez bet!) Let's make it an offseason avatar bet. A Canadian flag sounds good - my fiancee is a Yukoner and will get a kick out of it if I lose.

And for sake of full disclosure, I should mention that I picked Bonderman in my keeper league draft as my 4th pitcher (behind Santan, Wood and Harden) in the *gulp* 12th round.

So we have a deal. Radke vs. Bonderman.

We will use the rototime value calculator ok?

Standard mixed league 5x5 scoring \$260 cap.

If at the end of the year Radke has a higher value than Bonderman then you will wear a Canadian flag as your avatar for the entire offseason. If Bonderman has a higher value than Radke I will wear a Bonderman avatar for the offseason.

Sound good?

Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2005 11:43 am
DIPS ERA, 2004
Bonderman 4.37
Colon 5.03
Penny 3.59
Brown 4.09
Morris 5.08
Weaver 3.86
Wolf 4.50
Pineiro 4.41

Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2005 11:44 am
Mookie4ever wrote:
ramble2 wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:
ramble2 wrote:I'm a bit pressed for time, so can't really make the case, but thought I'd put it on record that I'm on the Bonderman band wagon. He does seem to be going earlier than is probably warranted. However, when I draft I don't mind taking guys I really want a bit earlier than I think they should go. (Better than taking a player everyone else THINKS should go earlier and losing out on the players you want because they get taken in the 'right' round.)

Am I sure he'll bust out this year? No. Do I think he's a strong candidate for a breakout year? Absolutely. And in my keeper league I want in on that action before it happens, rather than to be on the sidelines.

Strong second half indicators, good base-line sabermatic numbers, nice Baseball Prospectus write up. Yup, he's one I want.

Mookie and LB, I can't remember where each of you stood on Loaiza last year. I think LB was on board the Loaiza wagon. I was most definitely not. Mookie I can't remember. I think Bonderman could be the anti-Loaiza here. You guys up for a bet? Here are the terms I propose:

Choose one to bet on:

A. Bonderman in 2005 outperforms Loaiza 2004;
B. Bonderman in 2005 outperforms Loaiza 2005 (not much of a bet, really, but hey, if you want to take it).

Loser has to change their avatar next off-season. If I lose, I get a Loaiza avatar. If you lose, you get a Bonderman avatar. Game?

First of all - why did you put a link to Amazon.com in your post

Second, not a huge Loaiza guy. My post was about him being taken before some guys that I'm sure will outperform him. I mentioned Radke in my original post. Take for example the Cafe Challenge slow draft that's going on right now.

Bonderman 10th round
Odalis Perez 12th round

I would take the bet if I got to pick Radke or Perez.

Even though I'm around here a lot more than you and your humiliation will not be as severe I will still take the bet.

Bonderman outperforms Radke (5x5 standard roto post 2005 dollar value) and I will wear a Bonderman avatar for (the offseason, a year? 1,000 posts? whatever). Radke outperforms Bonderman and you wear a Canadian flag avatar for your next 1,000 posts.

deal?

Perez and Radke, eh? Those are interesting choices. I actually think both of them are underrated, and agree that Bonderman should probably be taken after both of them - though it's much closer with Radke than Perez. I'm probably more in agreement with your post than I originally thought.

Still, I'm game. Let's see how Bonderman stacks up with Radke at the end of the season. (I won't take the Perez bet!) Let's make it an offseason avatar bet. A Canadian flag sounds good - my fiancee is a Yukoner and will get a kick out of it if I lose.

And for sake of full disclosure, I should mention that I picked Bonderman in my keeper league draft as my 4th pitcher (behind Santan, Wood and Harden) in the *gulp* 12th round.

So we have a deal. Radke vs. Bonderman.

We will use the rototime value calculator ok?

Standard mixed league 5x5 scoring \$260 cap.

If at the end of the year Radke has a higher value than Bonderman then you will wear a Canadian flag as your avatar for the entire offseason. If Bonderman has a higher value than Radke I will wear a Bonderman avatar for the offseason.

Sound good?

Good!