I disagree. I'd say low risk high reward.
Millwood was excellent in 2002.
He really wasn't bad in 2003 either. Pretty much the same core numbers as the year before, just poor luck on balls hit in play.
In 2004 he was bad, but he was hurt.
I don't see a lot of reason to think that a healthy Millwood is not the same pitcher he was in 2002/2003, and if so he's going to be a draft steal.
214 IP, 14 W, 176 K, 3.53 ERA, 1.27 WHIP