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Thoughts on a few potential breakout SP's

Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2014 5:56 pm
by thatguy27
I'm just curious to hear the Cafe's thoughts on these 4 SP's. All 4 have solid pedigrees and have potential breakout potential.

Tyson Ross, Martin Perez, Drew Smyly, Chris Tillman

Obviously Tillman has the best track record of sustained success as he had a very solid 2013 season as SP4/5. Smyly is intriguing having been great in long relief but struggled in his first start. Ross was solid last season and has been great to start to the season. Playing in Petco obviously helps. Perez has been very impressive in the early going, particularly considering he plays in Arlington.

Another interesting guy is Wily Peralta who many are very high on. And I suppose we can throw Kluber into the mix too.

Which of these guys has the best chance to develop into a fantasy stud? Which of them are the safest bets to be solid if unspectacular end of the rotation starters?

How would you compare them to say, a vet like Gallardo?

Re: Thoughts on a few potential breakout SP's

Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2014 6:00 pm
by thatguy27
And to be clear, this is not some sort of veiled which guy should I pick up thread. All of these guys are owned in my league, a few by me.

I'm just curious to hear what those of you much smarter than I have to say about these guys both as individuals and in relation to one another, with regard to both the short and long term.

Re: Thoughts on a few potential breakout SP's

Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2014 12:58 pm
by NikkiSixx
Tillman is off to a nice start, but he is likely to come back down to earth given his situation (Camden Yards/AL East). Tyson Ross I like the most of the group, he plays half his games at Petco and has a solid K/9... so he is probably the most fantasy relevant. Smyly has looked good in his 2 long relief outings, but then struggled in his only start. I like Smyly as long as he keeps striking batters out though, but his role on the team is unclear. Martin Perez is just a good sinker ball pitcher and that's about it. He is doing well right now but I don't think he will be this good, and he plays half his games in Texas, Perez holds some value because Texas should be scoring a lot more runs then they have been and he should be able to get a good amount of wins.

I'd rank them: Ross, Smyly, Perez, Tillman

Re: Thoughts on a few potential breakout SP's

Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2014 1:43 pm
by germani40
Tillman currently has a .000 Babip against against right handers (0-18). There is no way that lasts. With all at bats he has given up only 1 homer in 29 at bats (.034). At some point regression is going to hit him.

For his career his opponents babip is .308 and average is .275

If possible I would sell him but I doubt you could fetch much for him in a trade.

Re: Thoughts on a few potential breakout SP's

Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:07 pm
by hot4tx
Martin Perez is an interesting case to me. He just turned 23 this month, but it seems like his velocity has been decreasing through his late teens and early 20's. Back in 2009 (18 years old) he was striking out over a batter an inning (in single-A or rookie ball) and pitching in the mid-upper 90's with his fastball. A lefty with that type of velocity and good sink - he was a very exciting prospect. Now he's a guy throwing in the mid-low 90's and from his velocity chart it looks like he's continuing to decline. I'd understand if he were a guy 5 years older than he is, but from 18 to 22 or 23 a lot of guys are still gaining velocity. Maybe a lot of miles on his arm? Maybe he's older than listed (Venezuela) and has been going through his mid-20's when a lot of guy's velocity does decline?

I still pine for Kluber. He may always have HR problems that may keep him from being more than a back-end SP, but he could put it all together. Still I think his floor (once what I think is luck turns around) is reasonably high that he shouldn't kill your stats while you wait to see if he blossoms.

I think Ross has still had some velocity issues this April? If his velocity doesn't/hasn't rebound he (along with Salazar) may end up inflaming my Van Poppel gland and I may not be able to recover from another bout of that.

Re: Thoughts on a few potential breakout SP's

Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2014 2:01 am
by OBPlover
When in doubt, go with the NL guy in the pitcher's park (Ross).

I am nearly positive that Tillman has had stretches before where he has dominated, utterly, even against good hitting AL east teams. Because it is happening in April, it is natural to assume he has taken the next step. He also tends to live in the top half of the strike zone which has made him very, very HR prone. Sorry, I'm not buying it. I think his HR rate% drop is somewhat lucky.

Smyly - Being a lefty spot reliever vs a reliable starter, facing mainly RH batters multiple times up and down the order is apples and oranges.

Perez - I like Perez and Texas is a lot more punishing on RH starting pitchers (vs Left handed batters). He might be able to give it a go if he keeps his gb% decent.

I'd go Ross, Perez, Tillman, Smyly