Why do most sites bury Scott Kazmir in their rankings?

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NikkiSixx
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Why do most sites bury Scott Kazmir in their rankings?

Post by NikkiSixx »

It doesn't make much sense to me. All you would have had to do was tell me that the velocity is back to make me a believer (last year was the hardest he had thrown since 2005). But when you dig a little deeper you see that on top of the velocity returning, he also had the best K/BB rate (3.45) and xfip (3.36) of his career last year. Not to mention he closed September with 43 K's in 28 innings for a ridiculous 13.8 K/9 (a rate that not even Yu Darvish would reach in a single month last year) proving that fatigue is not an issue. Throw in the fact that he is moving to Oakland where he will get a bunch of extra "free outs" thanks to the abnormally large foul ball territory.... What's not to like? I don't get why there isn't more buzz on Scott Kazmir entering the season. Is there something I don't know about that is pushing him down the rankings? I was pleased to find that he is at least higher than usual in the café rankings.




EDIT:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/how-scott- ... oove-back/

This article shows the mechanics issue that have been fixed to explain how he regained the velocity he once had. I posted the link later in this thread, but I'll just put it here for everyone to see when they open up the page.
Last edited by NikkiSixx on Tue Feb 25, 2014 5:38 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Why do most sites bury Scott Kazmir in their rankings?

Post by bigh0rt »

It really comes down to cost. If you get him dirt cheap, the upside is tremendous. If you don't, however, it may not be worth the risk of getting next to nothing out of the guy. That being said, I have him in my dynasty league, after getting him for nothing last season, and am thrilled with the upside potential. You can understand projections being timid about having him throw too many innings, though, even after 158 a season ago. That's why I imagine he's lower down. Nobody is expecting 200 innings, and a guy who throws 150 loses value (in projection terms, not necessarily in actual fantasy performance terms).
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Re: Why do most sites bury Scott Kazmir in their rankings?

Post by NikkiSixx »

bigh0rt wrote:It really comes down to cost. If you get him dirt cheap, the upside is tremendous. If you don't, however, it may not be worth the risk of getting next to nothing out of the guy. That being said, I have him in my dynasty league, after getting him for nothing last season, and am thrilled with the upside potential. You can understand projections being timid about having him throw too many innings, though, even after 158 a season ago. That's why I imagine he's lower down. Nobody is expecting 200 innings, and a guy who throws 150 loses value (in projection terms, not necessarily in actual fantasy performance terms).

I don't know of a draft where he isn't taken in the final rounds... I'm sure he even goes undrafted at times. That's dirt cheap.
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Re: Why do most sites bury Scott Kazmir in their rankings?

Post by Izenhart »

Kazmir is the guy I take if I need another SP, I have him in the like Lackey/Ubaldo tier. Not exciting enough for me to specifically target or reach for.
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Re: Why do most sites bury Scott Kazmir in their rankings?

Post by NikkiSixx »

Interesting.

I'm buying into it. I'll take him around pick 200 and won't look back. I guess Kazmir will be on most of my teams this year like Buchholz was last year and Peavy was the year before that. Hopefully I get just as lucky.
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Re: Why do most sites bury Scott Kazmir in their rankings?

Post by rjforlife »

NikkiSixx wrote:Interesting.

I'm buying into it. I'll take him around pick 200 and won't look back. I guess Kazmir will be on most of my teams this year like Buchholz was last year and Peavy was the year before that. Hopefully I get just as lucky.



He's a solid end-game play, and should be taken over Lackey without hesitation. There is actually quite a bit of upside here, as he is almost like a rookie going into his second season. The issue is of course the injury trouble, but if you somehow got 175 innings out of him, you could see some damn fine numbers for such a late pick. I don't think John Lackey knows what 9K/9 smells like and he's just as likely to have a 5 era as Kazmir.
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Re: Why do most sites bury Scott Kazmir in their rankings?

Post by ayebatter »

Ok you've convinced Ken ;-)

2/25 Scott Kazmir, SP, Oak

Postby bigken117 » Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:03 am
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Re: Why do most sites bury Scott Kazmir in their rankings?

Post by kab21 »

he's the kind of guy that you should be taking late in the draft but there is a reason that he's going late in the draft. The last time he was a good fantasy starter before last season was 2008. And he has always had injury issues but if you are drafting as your #6 then get some upside instead of a boring starter.
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Re: Why do most sites bury Scott Kazmir in their rankings?

Post by bigken117 »

kab21 wrote:he's the kind of guy that you should be taking late in the draft but there is a reason that he's going late in the draft. The last time he was a good fantasy starter before last season was 2008. And he has always had injury issues but if you are drafting as your #6 then get some upside instead of a boring starter.



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Re: Why do most sites bury Scott Kazmir in their rankings?

Post by Sticky Spice »

NikkiSixx wrote:It doesn't make much sense to me. All you would have had to do was tell me that the velocity is back to make me a believer (last year was the hardest he had thrown since 2005). But when you dig a little deeper you see that on top of the velocity returning, he also had the best K/BB rate (3.45) and xfip (3.36) of his career last year. Not to mention he closed September with 43 K's in 28 innings for a ridiculous 13.8 K/9 (a rate that not even Yu Darvish would reach in a single month last year) proving that fatigue is not an issue. Throw in the fact that he is moving to Oakland where he will get a bunch of extra "free outs" thanks to the abnormally large foul ball territory.... What's not to like? I don't get why there isn't more buzz on Scott Kazmir entering the season. Is there something I don't know about that is pushing him down the rankings? I was pleased to find that he is at least higher than usual in the café rankings.


I'm not saying he can't do these things, but (TO ME) the chances are far greater for regression simply based on his history. He was a black hole for two years and before that he sucked for two years. That's why your "what's not to like?" question made me chuckle.

I think I would be a bigger believer if I maybe read up on him to see how he got back to this point. Did he have some major change in his personal life, or did new mechanics revolutionize his delivery, or did he have a breakthrough with his recovery, or did a mentor help him get to a new place psychologically, or did he quit the sauce, or what? Four years is a really long time... if I don't know how he got to Point B it makes me suspicious...
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