NEW Strategy: 7-3 H2H

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Slim Charles
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Re: NEW Strategy: 7-3 H2H

Post by Slim Charles »

Syfo-Dyas wrote:
Slim Charles wrote:
Syfo-Dyas wrote:
To counter this strategy, anyone who drafts power hitters and enough closers, can stream the hell out of you.
You lose HR, RBI, OBP, Wins, Ks, and could lose RUNs and Saves.
So you can lose 3-7 easily.


If you look at my team, I'm not sure how anyone could draft enough closers or pitchers to beat me in Wins, K's, and Saves. Just my opinion, but I use this strategy based on getting quality arms. After looking at the rosters of the other teams during mocks, it will be difficult for anyone to consistently beat me in pitching.


Code: Select all

R: 1107, T-5th, 9 teams were from 1185-1097, so I am fairly pleased with this number.
SB: 323, 1st
K: 1427, 1st
W: 119, 1st
SV: 133, 1st
ERA: 3.14, 1st
WHIP: 1.17, 1st


1. Obviously you are not familiar with the concept of streaming.
You dont have to draft starters at all to win Wins and Ks. Your #1 rated staff has no chance to compete if I pick up 4-5 starters a day from the waivers.

2. You assume that you win Saves, based on the fact that you have 4 closers.
Well I got news for you. You dont need to draft 4 closers to win saves.
But you want as many closers as you can get, and streaming Starters allows you to draft dominant hitting, and 3-4 top 10 closers.
BTW what makes you think that that no one else will draft 4 closers?
What makes you think that your 4 will be better than other owners 4 closers on every given week? I use to have 4 closers and still lose sometimes to teams that have only 2 closers.
What makes you think that other teams wont be able to fill their teams with newly appointed closers during the season?

The problem is that you still thinkin roto.
But in H2H you need to put up numbers on a weekly basis, so theres a lot of luck involved.
You say you are T-5th in Runs with only 10 more than the 9th place team.
I fail to see the advantage of that. Basically everybody can beat you any given week.
And average can produce huge fluctuations from week to week. One week you'll have .220 and the next week .350

So probably what you'll win for sure is SB, ERA and WHIP.
Its far from the 7 cats you envisioned.

Now lets assume that I do not intend to stream, cause the min IP limit is low.
probably I have two good starters, so I can try to win ERA and WHIP by using the right matchup, and my closers. This can backfire if my starter or a closer blows up, but it can work (I used it successfully vs streamers), and the 3.17 ERA and 1.17 WHIP is not unbeatable.
As your opponent I can decide which strategy I want to use after Monday's starts. Or even Tuesday's.

So your assumption that you can take 7-3 every is flawed.
H2H is not Roto.





1. I understand what you are saying. However, my league has a cap of 4 pickups per week. Obviously, if you are comfortable picking up and dropping 4-5 starters the week you play me, so be it. I’m not sure everyone will have that ability.
2. I am still trying to figure out my closer situation. I need to value closers, and if you look at my last draft, I think I am getting close. I’ve got four decent ones, and hopefully I can close a couple more on the wire throughout the season.
3. Here’s the thing. You say I am thinking roto, but I really am not.

Think about this. Look at my last draft quickly. I have 6 out of the top 60 projected run producers in baseball. I like my odds on a weekly basis. Stolen bases speak for themselves, as I have four guys who are projected for 40+ steals. Also, average wise, my starting lineup from my last draft is .275. I will go to war with this number. It is competitive, and I think I have a good mix of guys who get on base and score runs.

Finally, my league has a 25 IP limit. I understand what you are saying if you have a 10 IP limit. You might be looking at a team who could throw 1 starter and a couple of spot relievers.

Listen, this isn’t a perfect process, but I realistically think I could take 7-3 categories on a weekly basis. If you don’t think so, just look at the numbers!
Slim Charles
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Re: NEW Strategy: 7-3 H2H

Post by Slim Charles »

kab21 wrote:The last two examples show teams with 6 SP's. I don't see how you can guaranteed W's and K's (also some low K rate starters) against streamers. For example is have Verlander, Weaver, Bills, Gio, DHudson, RRomero, TWood and Baker on my balanced team with 5 RP's. I'm not even sure that you can count on the pitching ratios.

If you're going to do this strategy then don't get greedy and go for 7 categories. You need to pick starters with 5 of your first 6 picks (at least) and get 4 or 5 of the top closers (for the ratios). Remember you need to absolutely guaranteed that you win ALL 5 pitching categories because you are definitely losing 3 of the batting categories.

Your draft should look like this
Halladay
Felix
Lee
Lester
JJohnson
Hamels
soria
Marmol
Papelbon
Gardner
Bourn
Chris Perez
Figgins
Kuroda
Tabata
Nishioka - SS (in Yahoo) - better to go after Furcal earlier
Rajai Davis
Aviles - 3B
JZimmerman
Kurt Suzuki
CocoCrisp
any 1Bman

This roster results in 6 aces and 2 late rounders and should easily win SB's each week. Maybe you get lucky in R's or BA. And there is a good chance that it can take all 5 pitching categories each week. But ratios are fickle and streamers or 2 start pitching weeks could get lucky every once in awhile.


You are right. I am still trying to tweak the SP/RP spot. I like my draft of positional players a lot. I really don’t want to mess with my selections from Victorino to Furcal.

However, I need to address pitching later. If you look at my selections, I really went after positional players at the end of my draft. Instead of taking Coghlan, Fowler, Tabata etc. I need to look for some late round pitchers to fill it out.

I like my last draft. Your staff is obviously a little bit more powerful than mine, but I think I make up for it a little bit with my starting lineup.

I need to try and find a happy medium between both of our drafts.
hot4tx
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Re: NEW Strategy: 7-3 H2H

Post by hot4tx »

The problem is at best you win 7-3. At best. When you have bad weeks you'll likely lose 1-9.

Depending on minimum innings pitched or max innings pitched rules, you can have teams regularly press you for ERA/WHIP (by hitting minimum innings pitched and then benching all pitchers) or W/K (by streaming you). I'd say a full 1/5 of the weeks (likely more) you'll either just flat out lose 2 of your 4 SP categories or someone will use strategery against you and take at least 2 of them.

You potentially better offensive teams that beat you in runs at least say 40%-50% of the time.
You lose HR, RBI 100% of the time.
You should lose SB very rarely. Say 5% of the time.
You lose average (especially with teams benching their Adam Dunns when they play you) say 80% of the time.
20% of the time you lose an average of 2 W/K/ERA/WHIP, so give all four of those 90%.
Even if you win Saves 95% of the time you're still looking at a .580 winning percentage at the optimistic level. Then tougher the league the better chance people pick up on this and set rosters to take you, and if you're in a weak league you should be able to do better than that anyway. Then especially when you get to the playoffs people will absolutely set lineups that take advantage of your unbalanced strategy one way or the other.


I like the way you're thinking, and it looks like an extreme version of the Sweeney plan. However I think if you take your idea and also focus on average and put a little more priority on runs (which gives you the Sweeney plan) then you can still build a dominant pitching staff but potentially have a higher win% in the regular season and not be quite so vulnerable to counter strategies.
Slim Charles
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Re: NEW Strategy: 7-3 H2H

Post by Slim Charles »

Got my draft tonight. I think I have a pretty good plan laid out, but we shall see. A lot of people have messaged me about my spread sheet, and I will get it out tonight after the draft.

I think I have a decent mix of hitting and run scorers with dominant pitching.

I played around with picking two positional players at 5 and 20, but I am more than happy to stack pitching like I have in the past.

I am currently doing my final mock. I will post the results and then see how I do in my draft.
OneLoveBoomer
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Re: NEW Strategy: 7-3 H2H

Post by OneLoveBoomer »

In theory, not bad.

In reality, if you were playing against me I'd counter-strategy your team before the start of the week and beat you.
Slim Charles
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Re: NEW Strategy: 7-3 H2H

Post by Slim Charles »

OneLoveBoomer wrote:In theory, not bad.

In reality, if you were playing against me I'd counter-strategy your team before the start of the week and beat you.


A lot of people say that, but I have been doing this for a couple of years, and to completely counter-strategy my team may not be feasible. How many pickups are you allowed during a week? If you try and pitch the minimum innings on me and blow a save i win pitching 6-0 without a contest.

You will never be able to counter my run scoring stolen basemen.

What in particular is your strategy going to be? Minimum innings trying to win ERA and WHIP? If so, good luck to you. If your closers can pitch 6 or 7 great innings, and you pitcher(s) you try to throw pitches lights out, so be it.
Slim Charles
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Re: NEW Strategy: 7-3 H2H

Post by Slim Charles »

1. Roy Halladay
2. Cliff Lee
3. CC Sabathia
4. Justin Verlander
5. Josh Johnson
6. Mariano Rivera
7. Michael Bourn
8. Brett Gardner
9. Juan Pierre
10. Clay Bucholz
11. Rafael Furcal
12. Angel Pagan
13. Huston Street
14. Fransisco Cordero
15. Michael Cuddyer
16. Tsuyoshi Nishioka
17. Austin Jackson
18. Omar Infante
19. James Shields
20. Nyger Morgan
21. Hong-Chin Kuo
22. Miguel Tejada
23. Carlos Gomez
24. Ty Wigginton
25. John Jaso
R: 1112, a bit down, but I really like my draft
SB: 341
AVG: .274, looks bad, but a number around this is usually in the middle of the draft.
K: 1591
W: 134
SV: 105
ERA: 3.19
WHIP: 1.17
OneLoveBoomer
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Re: NEW Strategy: 7-3 H2H

Post by OneLoveBoomer »

Slim Charles wrote:
OneLoveBoomer wrote:In theory, not bad.

In reality, if you were playing against me I'd counter-strategy your team before the start of the week and beat you.


A lot of people say that, but I have been doing this for a couple of years, and to completely counter-strategy my team may not be feasible. How many pickups are you allowed during a week? If you try and pitch the minimum innings on me and blow a save i win pitching 6-0 without a contest.

You will never be able to counter my run scoring stolen basemen.

What in particular is your strategy going to be? Minimum innings trying to win ERA and WHIP? If so, good luck to you. If your closers can pitch 6 or 7 great innings, and you pitcher(s) you try to throw pitches lights out, so be it.



I'll tell you exactly what I'll do.

First of all, your runs and stolen base idea doesn't quite work. I'm not worried about runs at all -- I plan on being able to beat you there. Stolen base guys definitely don't necessarily get most of the runs. Heck I remember in 2006 when for a good part of the season Jim Thome had the most runs on the team. Runs = good OBP with guys behind you to knock you in. Stolen base = getting from first to second. Also, stolen base guys don't always just get 1 or 2 a week. Sometimes they go 4 one week, none next week, 2 the following week, etc etc. You have no guarantees.

Given that, I'd still try and compete in SBs. I'd check the waiver wire, I'd grab some cheap SBs and see what I could do. Giving you only SBs, in fact, I'd consider myself at least in the running for R, RBI, HR, AVG. So that's 4, and I'll hope to win all 5 with that gamble offense of yours.

After that, I'd look to pitching. Here's one thing I might try. I'll start my good starts on Monday, see how I do. If I do really well on Monday and offense looks good and well in my favor from the get go, I might just bench all my pitchers for the week and take ERA & WHIP. I might keep my closers in and try to get SV too. If any of the above is good, I win 6-4 or 7-3. Worst case I might tie.

Here's another thing I might try. Looking at your pitching matchups for the week, I might notice that you have a lot of one-start pitchers. Before the week starts, I might load up on 2-start pitchers with good matchups, in order to beat you in W, K (hopefully SV), and who knows, maybe they do well and win one of WHIP and ERA.

The problem is that you are playing predictably every week. You're throwing a fastball outside and I know it ahead of time.
MotorCityKitties
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Re: NEW Strategy: 7-3 H2H

Post by MotorCityKitties »

My 7-3 strategy is to "ignore" all the rate categories. Draft hitters for the first 10 rounds or so. Then I use my entire bench on SP's while stocking up on around 5 closers. Since avg isn't important I grab guys like Dunn, Rollins and Stubbs. This makes my offense great in everything except avg and my pitchers great in everything but ERA and WHIP. Best part is that since there's so much volatility in avg, ERA and WHIP week to week you can win those categories occasionally. This works in leagues with a moves limit, but is even better in leagues where you can stream pitchers. It's tough when you run into a team with a few 2 start studs, but your offense should be solid enough to avoid embarrassing losses.
Slim Charles
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Re: NEW Strategy: 7-3 H2H

Post by Slim Charles »

OneLoveBoomer wrote:
Slim Charles wrote:
OneLoveBoomer wrote:In theory, not bad.

In reality, if you were playing against me I'd counter-strategy your team before the start of the week and beat you.


A lot of people say that, but I have been doing this for a couple of years, and to completely counter-strategy my team may not be feasible. How many pickups are you allowed during a week? If you try and pitch the minimum innings on me and blow a save i win pitching 6-0 without a contest.

You will never be able to counter my run scoring stolen basemen.

What in particular is your strategy going to be? Minimum innings trying to win ERA and WHIP? If so, good luck to you. If your closers can pitch 6 or 7 great innings, and you pitcher(s) you try to throw pitches lights out, so be it.


First of all, your runs and stolen base idea doesn't quite work. I'm not worried about runs at all -- I plan on being able to beat you there. Stolen base guys definitely don't necessarily get most of the runs. Heck I remember in 2006 when for a good part of the season Jim Thome had the most runs on the team. Runs = good OBP with guys behind you to knock you in. Stolen base = getting from first to second. Also, stolen base guys don't always just get 1 or 2 a week. Sometimes they go 4 one week, none next week, 2 the following week, etc etc. You have no guarantees.

Given that, I'd still try and compete in SBs. I'd check the waiver wire, I'd grab some cheap SBs and see what I could do. Giving you only SBs, in fact, I'd consider myself at least in the running for R, RBI, HR, AVG. So that's 4, and I'll hope to win all 5 with that gamble offense of yours.

After that, I'd look to pitching. Here's one thing I might try. I'll start my good starts on Monday, see how I do. If I do really well on Monday and offense looks good and well in my favor from the get go, I might just bench all my pitchers for the week and take ERA & WHIP. I might keep my closers in and try to get SV too. If any of the above is good, I win 6-4 or 7-3. Worst case I might tie.

Here's another thing I might try. Looking at your pitching matchups for the week, I might notice that you have a lot of one-start pitchers. Before the week starts, I might load up on 2-start pitchers with good matchups, in order to beat you in W, K (hopefully SV), and who knows, maybe they do well and win one of WHIP and ERA.

The problem is that you are playing predictably every week. You're throwing a fastball outside and I know it ahead of time.




Good luck! The numbers don't lie.

I don't care who you have/who you pick up on waivers. Figgins, Bourn, Gardner, Pierre, R. Davis are 40+ steal guys who are more than likely going to be on my team.

I am predictable, but I am effective. It's like football teams like Navy who run the option. This is what we run. Now stop it, bitch.

Manipulate your lineup all you want. I am going to sit back, relax, let my guys score runs, steal bases, and dominate pitching.
I'll tell you exactly what I'll do.
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