Note: the following post is only for roto leagues.
Most of us have had this problem, whether during the draft or mulling over a trade or waiver pickup: Are those 10 home runs worth more or less than those 30 runs? Are those 5 wins worth that .4 hit to my ERA?
Not being in Points based leagues, it's difficult to gauge the absolute value of a player's contributions to roto categories. Some categories are ratio based, like WHIP and AVG, while others are counted which means that there is no such thing as negative impact.
I'd like to share with you all a formula that converts roto categories into workable numbers that I found I'm not sure how long ago or where. But after using it for a while it seems to work pretty well, and answers the type of vexing questions I listed at the beginning of this post.
EDITED to take into consideration the impact of ABs, I calculated 519 to be the average number of ABs for a fantasy hitter:
Hitters: 2 x {[2.5(AVG above .280)ABs] + R +RBI} + 5 x (HR + SB)
What that means is that you simply multiply the players' AVG over .280 as a decimal with his number of At Bats and 2.5, then add that and Runs and RBIs together, and multiply that by two. Then you add the players HRs and SBs together and multiply that by five. Finally you add the sum and you have the points value of a player for a roto league.
This formula takes into consideration the global sums of each statistic in both the major league baseball and fantasy baseball universes. It takes into account just how much 10 home runs or 30 runs mean in the final roto totals for a team at the end of the season compared to the total number of home runs and runs scored in a fantasy league added together. It also takes into account the production of the average fantasy hitter, the “replacement” player, as well as uneven distribution of statistics, such as a small group of hitters contributing an inordinate number of Stolen Bases.
The formula for pitchers is my own creation. I modeled it after the logic of the hitter formula. Just add up the sums. I had 4.3 calculated to be the average pitcher's ERA and 1.3 to be the average WHIP in fantasy baseball.
Each W=13
Each SV=6
Each K=1
ERA=.5(Player’s ERA-4.3)IP
WHIP=2.5(Player’s WHIP-1.3)IP
The beauty of this system is that you can compare players from different positions to either fill out your Utility spot or to compare position scarcity. If your projections have Marcus Giles scoring 590 pts and the next tier of 2B at 525 pts while Jeter is still available and you project him according to my formula to score 570 pts but the next tier of SS will only score 480 pts, then you would be able to perceive the difference in value and pick Jeter. Of course if you were filling your Utility spot with these players you would be able to tell that Giles’ 290 90 20 80 24 in 600 ABs is slightly more valuable than Jeter’s 310 110 10 80 10 in 600 ABs, which you might not be able to perceive at first glance.
An example with pitchers is a top closer and a good starter.
You can then use those absolute values to compare with other players at their positions and find out who is the better value.
And you no longer have to worry about guessing the inexact amount of greater impact that a SP’s higher number of Innings Pitched will have over a RP’s. The formulas make it exact. In fact the inexactitudes of all roto categories will have been taken out in favor of concrete knowledge of the relative value of say a HR vs. an RBI vs. ten points of BA in 550 At Bats.
The formulas assume you don't have a crazy draft strategy like going for all the SB and no HRs, in which case SBs for players will have very little value compared to HRs from those players for your team. It assumes your draft strategy is reasonably balanced.
I have seen similar posts on the Cafe but I've added my own formula. Hope it helps.
Last edited by Iconoclastic on Thu Mar 03, 2005 3:40 am, edited 3 times in total.
slomo, I think the (average over .280) is not average divided by .280, but the amount above .280. Example: a .280 hitter would have a value of 0 there, a .290 hitter would have a value of 10, and a .270 hitter would have a value of -10.
slomo007 wrote:Question, what do you do if a hitters average is under .280? Shouldn't that penalize him in some way?
Oh yea, it becomes a negative number. So for the AVG part, a .265 hitter will be a -15, then you add it to the Runs and RBI.
So that would make it a pretty serious negative number right, even if the person's average was just .279? What am I missing?
Player X: .265 80 30 90 10
2X (AVG over 280+Runs+RBI) + 5X (SB+HR)
2X [(-15)+80+90] + 5X (30+10)
2X (155) + 5X (40)...
Gotcha, sorry, it's late and sometimes I miss the obvious things when I'm tired. It's too late for me to run the numbers on some players, but I'm going to do so sometime to see how it works. Have you already run the numbers for your cheatsheets?
One problem I see with this formula is it doesn't take into acct the number of at bats...for example, Helton having a .340 avg over 550 AB's is much more valuable than Bonds having a .340 avg over 330 AB's.
sooner711 wrote:One problem I see with this formula is it doesn't take into acct the number of at bats...for example, Helton having a .340 avg over 550 AB's is much more valuable than Bonds having a .340 avg over 330 AB's.
Very good point. Wonder if there would be a way to work this in...