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Top 25 pitchers

Postby jimmyvegas » Mon Feb 28, 2005 11:01 pm

imho....but let me know what you think...I'm completely open to suggestions

1) Johan Santana
2) Randy Johnson
3) Jason Schmidt
4) Curt Schilling
5) Ben Sheets
6) Mark Prior
7) Roy Oswalt
8) Pedro Martinez
9) Tim Hudson
10) Roy Halladay
11) Mike Mussina
12) Jake Peavy
13) Roger Clemens
14) Carlos Zambrano
15) A.J. Burnett
16) Oliver Perez
17) Mark Mulder
18) Carl Pavano
19) Kerry Wood
20) Barry Zito
21) Josh Beckett
22) John Smoltz
23) Javier Vazquez
24) Brad Radke
25) Mark Buehrle
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Postby tiger spit » Mon Feb 28, 2005 11:06 pm

id drop Mussina out of the top 20.. damb maybe the top 25 and bump peavy way up there.
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Postby Y`s Guy » Mon Feb 28, 2005 11:13 pm

You scoff at the Moose but did you know that the man has won 53% of his starts over the past 4 seasons? And 51% over his past two? Not too shabby. Only the more dominant SPs can post better percentages. Even RJ over the past 4 seasons is the same as Moose at 52%. Jason Schmidt = 53%

I am doing some analysis on the Ws and total starts for SPs. Saw this thread and figured I would let you know that Moose is more valuable than people think.

Especially when you consider uber-SP Ben Sheets has only won a putrid 34% of his starts over the last two seasons.
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Postby Mercer Boy » Mon Feb 28, 2005 11:29 pm

Yeah, I am hoping for big things from Mussina this year when I picked him in the 6th round of the Cafe Challenge. I looked and saw that over 13 years he has had 7 seasons with over 17 wins! 8-o

I understand he's getting old, but hopefully last year was a fluke. Now that Randy Johnson is there, I'm hoping he pitches looser and doesn't have nearly as much pressure to be perfect.

But, he's still probably too high on this chart. :-/
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Postby TheYanks04 » Mon Feb 28, 2005 11:35 pm

Vazquez and Zito top 25...please.

Moose is closer to 15-20 on the list probably.

Guys like Radke and Buerhle are OK but hardly great.

Zambrano is probably closer to 10 than he is 14. He is better than Hudson in all likelihood too when the Ks are factored in.
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Postby xtrm84 » Mon Feb 28, 2005 11:40 pm

Maybe its just me, but I think that Johan will have a not-so-cy young year.
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Postby jimmyvegas » Tue Mar 01, 2005 12:13 am

I had the Moose last year so I know as well as anybody where to put him. I dont base my rankings on last season's numbers entirely; I do believe three year stats are a great indication, of course with Mussina there's a whole body of work to dig into. Another important factor is the team they play for. Thats why I keep Mussina so high, thats also why I have Hudson up there. By the way take a closer look...Hudson is the real deal across the board.

Zito is perhaps too high on my list; Vazquez I consider a sleeper because of his second half performance last year, he should have a solid season pitching back in the NL. Gotta rely on hunches sometimes as well
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Postby j24jags » Tue Mar 01, 2005 12:46 am

swap prior and sheets, sheets has a much worse lineup behind him and prior's in a pitcher's ballpark
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Mar 01, 2005 12:57 am

Maybe its just me, but when evaluating SPs the absolute last cat I consider is Wins. My problem with using some kind of trend only analysis (3 yr weighted avg) for Muss doesnt explain what happened last yr. Age is also a concern. At 11th overall, Id say thats too high - he should be closer to 20th. The only ones I would definitely rate lower than him are Pavano, Zito, Vaz, Radke, and Beuhrle.
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Postby Niffoc4 » Tue Mar 01, 2005 1:11 am

Maybe its just me, but when evaluating SPs the absolute last cat I consider is Wins

Right on... Wins are totally unpredictable, because they depend on offenses to score runs. Look at Odalis Perez, he had a pretty good season pitching, but did horrible in Wins...even Ishii won more for the Dodgers.

Also, this makes win % one of the most worthless stats for considering how well a pitcher will pitch. The Yankees have arguably the best offense in the major leagues, so yes Mussina will get wins, but you shouldn't look to that as a reason to take him over better pitchers, because better pitching affects more categories.
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