Baseball Prospectus - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Baseball Prospectus

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby AcidRock23 » Mon Feb 28, 2005 4:55 pm

Holy crap, this is like Fantasy Baseball Crack!! Just reading the intro and flipping around to look at a few players' listings... well worth the $12.00 at Amazon...
AcidRock23
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle Eye
Posts: 4170
Joined: 8 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Champaign, IL

Postby BobbyRoberto » Mon Feb 28, 2005 6:16 pm

I agree with much of what was said above. Their projections are definitely lower than others. I have a spreadsheet with projections for each player from all of these sources:
Bill James Handbook
Ron Shandler's Forecaster
Rototimes
RotoChamps
ZiPS
PECOTA

and PECOTA's projections are the lowest, generally, especially in forecasting playing time. That said, the Fantasy Baseball portion of baseballprospectus.com ups the playing time projections.

PECOTA was originally designed specifically for pitching and I think it does the best job out there for pitchers.

As for the book, if you love baseball, it's a must read. For fantasy baseball purposes, they do have a paragraph or so about each player that can sometimes contradict the PECOTA projection. So, where PECOTA might see Oliver Perez as having an ERA well over 4.00 this year, the comment on him is much more optimistic.
Roger Angell: I was talking with Bob Gibson and I said: 'Are you always this competitive?' He said: 'Oh, I think so. I got a three-year old daughter, and I've played about 500 games of tic-tac-toe with her and she hasn't beat me yet.'
BobbyRoberto
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe Writer
Posts: 1269
Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Bothell, Washington

Postby warrick95 » Mon Feb 28, 2005 7:15 pm

I'm not sure what to think at this moment.

Let me get this straight...basically, the Prospectus uses prior statistical evidence from a player, along with statistical evidence of players relevant to him (age, workload, etc.) to best predict a players' stats the upcoming year? So, that's why some of the PECOTA predictions are somewhat conservative with cumulative stats, due to injuries and stuff hitting.

Now, in actuality, you COULD just do some ratios to increase cumulative stats to the number of ABs you believe a player will receive, correct?

Like Bobby mentioned, the PECOTA projections sometimes differ from their scouting reports, so it's probably a good idea to read those, too.

I'm still torn with what I think about the Prospectus. I've never been a huge fan of projections based solely on prior statistics, but I haven't heard anything but positive comments about this book.
warrick95
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 5440
Joined: 27 May 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The empty seat next to the Tampa Bay heckler

Postby Wozzyck » Tue Mar 01, 2005 10:50 am

The 2005 PECOTA cards and fantasy projections are now up:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/
Wozzyck
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 468
Joined: 14 Jul 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Previous

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2015 MLB season starts in 15:02 hours
(and 92 days)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact