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Position Scarcity: A thing of the past?

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Position Scarcity: A thing of the past?

Postby Garry26 » Fri Feb 25, 2005 6:12 pm

After a few Yahoo drafts its seems like there isnt any position scarcity.

While some positions like Catcher, 2B, and SS are still thin in power number players, there are many good players available in these positions. Even some of the traditional thin positions seem to have gotten better.


Catcher
This position is still thin, but it has gotten better with more talent. Gone are the days of Piazza, Posada, Pudge, and then the rest. Catcher is pretty deep now. We have:

Victor Martinez, Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez, Javy Lopez,
Jorge Posada, Mike Piazza, Jason Varitek, Mike Lieberthal, and even Ramon Hernandez all able to post great to good power numbers.

Then the rest...
They may not post a lot of HRs, but they can still post good numbers in 3 other areas. Pual Lo Duca, A.J. Pierzynski, Johnny Estrada, Micheal Barret, and Jason Kendal can post good rbi and/or runs with a great BA to boot.

Second Base
The same goes for 2B. After Soriano, Kent, and Boone there is still plenty of talent to go around. We have Uribe and Ginter. Both seem to be capable of posting good 2B numbers. Then there's Loretta, Bellhorn, and Vidro. Even Edgardo Alfonzo posted good rbi and BA numbers last year. Then we have speedsters like Freel, Figgins, (both can play multiple positions) Brian Roberts and others. So even if you cant get good power numbers from 2B, you can still get good runs, average, and stolen base production.

Shortstop
Shortstop is the deepest of all. After the top 4 (Tejeda, Jeter, Garciaparra, and C. Guillen), we have a slew of good average, base stealers available. We dont have to take our chances with a SS that posts a 240 BA anymore. We have Rollins, Furcal, Renteria (top 4?), Young (power), O. Cabrerra, Reyes, Matsui, Lugo, Feliz, Vizquel, and Izturis. All of which can post decent numbers or steal bases for a shortstop.

In all cases there are a couple of decent options still available on the free agent list. Khalil Greene is available in one of my leagues. Vizquel in another. Pierznski, Bellhorn and Vidro are available in yet another league.

It looks like this year we wont have to worry about being cut off of one of these traditionally thin positions. Which means you can no longer force a team to use up one of their middle rounds grabbing a SS, 2B, or C for fear of being left with nothing.

Thoughts? Comments?
I love mock drafts.
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scarcity

Postby quicksilver8 » Fri Feb 25, 2005 6:18 pm

I agree with you totally. The catcher position is still relatively thin in NL only leagues, but really, who counts on production from their catcher anyway? You might even be able to make the case that OF and SP are the thinner positions in the NL, relative to how many need to be drafted. In my league we start 9 pitchers and 4 OF.
That's 90 pitchers...I start running out of guys I want on my team around 45!
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Postby jbird669 » Fri Feb 25, 2005 6:19 pm

It's DEFINITELY NOT a thing of the past! You make some valid pointws about theose players if people are in a mixed league, but what about those who play in an AL- or NL-only league? Scarcity is much more important then. I direct you to a USA Today article by John Hunt that talks a bit about this:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/bbw/columnist/hunt/2005-02-23-fantasy_x.htm

I would definitely make sure that after the first 8 rounds, I have a SS, C, 2B, and 3B for that matter (I'm in a keeper league, so some of the other positions are spoken for already, but still), and i'll be following Ron Shandler's LIMA plan for pitchers, so they'll go in the later rounds for me, but I think it's very much alive and well.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Feb 25, 2005 6:26 pm

I agree with you Garry - in standard mixed league position scarcity is a philosophy that many people are tied to even though best available is clearly the better strategy.

In your post, you left out a lot of players that make you case even deeper: C- Mauer, 2B - Giles, Infante, SS - Feliz

And those are just the few off the top of my head.

The only position I see as being remotely scarce this yr? SP. I know, it sounds crazy, but Im serious. After the first 20 or so SPs are off the table the value drops out and many are left choosing between players that will hurt them less instead of players that will actually help them.

Just something to think about - but on the whole you are spot on.

In NL or AL only leagues or 20 team leagues or whatever then the argument changes - but thats a given.
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Re: scarcity

Postby jbird669 » Fri Feb 25, 2005 6:34 pm

quicksilver8 wrote:I agree with you totally. The catcher position is still relatively thin in NL only leagues, but really, who counts on production from their catcher anyway? You might even be able to make the case that OF and SP are the thinner positions in the NL, relative to how many need to be drafted. In my league we start 9 pitchers and 4 OF.
That's 90 pitchers...I start running out of guys I want on my team around 45!


People who had Craig Wilson at Catcher last year did!!
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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Feb 25, 2005 6:51 pm

Best player available, esp in the early rounds is definitely the way to go.

But I find this a bit interesting. Many are agreeing with this yet many will justify the picking of Soriano round 1, M. Young in the 4th, Marcus Giles in the 3rd or 4th just to name a few. So how is it that these guys whose value is derived largely from the position they play OK to pick early? Their raw numbers do not equate to their draft slots. Soriano if he played the OF would be a round 5-8 player (assuming he posts numbers close to what he did last year). Giles and Young would not be 3rd or 4th rounders.

And guys like Bret Boone if he playe dthe OF would likely barely be drafted let alone picked round 8-10.
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Postby Amazinz » Fri Feb 25, 2005 7:08 pm

In order to draft best available you have to determine value. I wonder how you go about determining value without taking position into account?

If when you say best available you mean lumping players into one pool and comparing them then that method is seriously flawed.
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Postby asumikey222 » Fri Feb 25, 2005 9:04 pm

Amazinz wrote:In order to draft best available you have to determine value. I wonder how you go about determining value without taking position into account?

If when you say best available you mean lumping players into one pool and comparing them then that method is seriously flawed.


I agree with that. There is a difference between taking Soriano where he should be taken considering there are very few top-flite 2Bs and just going nuts and drafting guys 50 picks early b/c you are afraid of 2B/SS scarcity. You can still value a position, the problem is overvaluing it and this can become a big problem when people start freaking out about perceived scarcity (and usually end up picking guys early who are far from sure things).
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Feb 25, 2005 10:24 pm

Amazinz wrote:In order to draft best available you have to determine value. I wonder how you go about determining value without taking position into account?

If when you say best available you mean lumping players into one pool and comparing them then that method is seriously flawed.


Well, no - actual value comparisons do take position scarcity into consideration. Dont ask me too many specifics, but Im pretty sure one of the local statisticians can help explain it better. Position scarcity can be quantified and built into value models. Thats the idea of best available - position scarcity is built into it.
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Postby Amazinz » Fri Feb 25, 2005 10:31 pm

Absolutely agree. It's just that positional value gets trashed along with drafting by position and I think that's unfortunate. It's misleading. ;-)
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