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Postby GSes » Fri Feb 25, 2005 1:31 am

Harden is following the same path as Ben Sheets year by year getting better until bam he hits that one big bust out year. Harden was one of THE TOP pitchers in the game in the 2nd half of last season and ended the year in the top 5 and top 10 of many pitching categories.

That being said I still think he is one year away from reaching TOTAL ACE status. However he will be very good this season and a top 15-20 SP no problem.

I project Rich for
16 wins
3.50 ERA
1.17 Whip
185 K's





Now as for Dotel, he should be an outstanding fantasy closer this season, a top 7 or 8 closer for sure.

Expect nothing less from dotel other then
6 Wins
42 Saves
3.15 ERA
1.10 whip
110 K's
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Postby RynMan » Fri Feb 25, 2005 1:40 am

Well, well, well, look who appears when we start talkin about the A's! :-D
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Postby fantasyfiend » Fri Feb 25, 2005 1:47 am

Harden was great after the break but if we want to be more specefic we have to mention his horrible September.

Where his control problems resurfaced, and his OBA was .275
his september ERA was in the mid 5's.

Maybe his young arm just tired some, and he needs better conditioning comming into spring this year.

The K/BB #'s and BB/9 still worry me. Control issues can be a problem that will hurt his ceiling...statistics/odds/history are against us here. If he doesn't turn his control problems around in a hurry, we wont be looking at the next ben sheets, our next cy young canidate will be more of a #2 #3 type starter. (on a regular rotation)

It seems when his k/9 rises so does his whip/era. young pitchers come into the league wanting to strike everybody out. hopefully with experience he'll be more efficient, i want to see that #p/ip go down as well.
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Postby Halo » Fri Feb 25, 2005 1:52 am

Unless I happen to draft Harden and/or Dotel, I hope all you A's fans are wrong! :-D Thanks for the heads up, I definitely learned some things tonight.
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Postby fantasyfiend » Fri Feb 25, 2005 2:07 am

Now as for Dotel, he should be an outstanding fantasy closer this season, a top 7 or 8 closer for sure.

Expect nothing less from dotel other then
6 Wins
42 Saves
3.15 ERA
1.10 whip
110 K's


I think these #'s are a little modest on Dotel's upside.

In his last 4 years with the Astros(in that sandbox for a stadium) his average earn runs is about 2.50 (guestimate) based off years of (01' 2.66ERA, 02': 1.85ERA, 03': 2.48ERA, 04': 3.12ERA)

Moving to Mcaffee/Network associates should do wonders for his #'s.

His k/9 is ridiculous(average k/9 over last 3 years has been 12.5), he's up there with the krods/gagne's/lidges

I dont see that k rate slipping at all. His (not so spectacular bb/9 and h/9 hold him back from being a real top 3 type talent)


Comming into this year healthy and a more defined role I fully expect him to blossom into a top 5 closer by the end of the year.
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Postby HOOTIE » Fri Feb 25, 2005 3:59 am

fantasyfiend wrote:The K/BB #'s and BB/9 still worry me. Control issues can be a problem that will hurt his ceiling...statistics/odds/history are against us here. If he doesn't turn his control problems around in a hurry, we wont be looking at the next ben sheets, our next cy young canidate will be more of a #2 #3 type starter.


Harden was only 22 last year, cut him a break. He threw harder then any sp in the AL. Walks are not uncommon for hard throwing kids. He had a 2/1 k/w ratio, pretty nice at 22. Some guy named RJ was much more wild and later in age.
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