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Abreu overrated?

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Abreu overrated?

Postby Rookies » Thu Feb 24, 2005 5:52 pm

Abreu is going in the first or early second round in many drafts. Doesn't that seem a little high?

He hit 31 HR's and stole 40 bases in 2004, but in seven full seasons with Philly, his career average is more like 23 HR's/ 29 SB's. His RBI and Walk numbers were up last year too.

What should we make of him? Was 04 a career year or can he be counted on to produce at that level again?
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Postby las_vegas_keith » Thu Feb 24, 2005 5:56 pm

i still really like abreu. i do think that hrs may be down this year back down to 25 but his steals should remain high and he will hit 300 and drive in 100. so where does a guy who will his 25 hrs. hit .300, drive in 100 and also steal 30-40 bases? i think early second is fine in a 12 team mixed league.
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Postby chris8 » Thu Feb 24, 2005 5:57 pm

I fully expect him to keep up those sorts of numbers.

After the obvious top 4, Abreu is right in the mix with Tejada, Helton and others in the top 10 IMO.
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Postby BillyMafia » Thu Feb 24, 2005 5:57 pm

I got Abreu in 4th round last year and was very happy. He started off very slow and fortunately for me no one would take him in a trade. He plays in a good hitters park so I would expect .300 and close to 30/30 which makes him a decent late first and good 2nd round pick. If Rollins plays well and gets on base then rbi's could go up.
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Postby Ender » Thu Feb 24, 2005 6:00 pm

Better hitters park, better lineup. His walks are always high and his RBI were always low because of the lineup and park. I expect a repeat of last year with maybe a few less HR's.
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Postby stumpak » Thu Feb 24, 2005 6:01 pm

I expect his SBs to tail back down toward 25 as well, but that still doesn't make him overrated. I would argue the opposite.
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Postby Rkiivs » Thu Feb 24, 2005 6:11 pm

He should be called Mr. Consistency. Always puts up numbers in all five categories. Everyone is targeting Beltran and he's not far off Beltran's numbers, so I'm targeting Abreu. Woe to he who passes him up beyond the second round.
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Postby rlee » Thu Feb 24, 2005 6:14 pm

I'm another voice that thinks he'll keep those numbers relatively close to last year, altough his SBs may come down a bit. Definitely worth a late 1st round pick. If he should fall to the second round, grab him as quickly as you can.
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Postby cordscords » Thu Feb 24, 2005 6:17 pm

For all the people who expect his SB's to go down are wrong. Charlie Manuel likes to run, run, and run some more. He said he's thinking 60-75 sb's, but that's probably just him saying he plans on running him. Expect a dip in hr's, rise in sb's.

Early 2nd for me.
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Postby kmorton2 » Thu Feb 24, 2005 6:31 pm

I think in almost any scoring format this guy is late 1st to late 2nd round. With the continued emergence of Rollins in front of him and Thome behind him there is no reason to think that he doesn't have another great year.

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