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Postby Arlo » Thu Feb 24, 2005 6:34 pm

xeifrank wrote:
Arlo wrote:I think 'flawed' is the wrong word to use here. OPS may better represent a player's contribution to his team than, say, batting average or RBI, but as a stat, OPS is considerably more flawed.


Why is OPS more flawed as a stat than batting average and RBIs. I mean batting average is a subset of OPS. Kind of like comparing near beer to samuel adams. :)

vr

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RBIs (for example) are what they are. Every time you drive in a runner, chalk one up.

Do RBIs show how good, or valuable, a hitter is? Not particularly. Are they influenced by teammates, position in the batting order, and so on? Of course. But that's irrelevant. The stat accurately represents what it's supposed to. No more, but no less, either. If there's a flaw with RBI, it's in the the way some choose to interpret and emphasize the stat, not in the stat itself.

OPS, on the other hand, isn't a bad tool for judging a player's value, but by pretending that OBP and slugging are equally important and that you can simply add them together, it misrepresents their true values. RBI may be simple and limited in scope, but at least it doesn't introduce any fallacies.
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Postby xeifrank » Thu Feb 24, 2005 6:47 pm

Arlo wrote:
xeifrank wrote:
Arlo wrote:I think 'flawed' is the wrong word to use here. OPS may better represent a player's contribution to his team than, say, batting average or RBI, but as a stat, OPS is considerably more flawed.


Why is OPS more flawed as a stat than batting average and RBIs. I mean batting average is a subset of OPS. Kind of like comparing near beer to samuel adams. :)

vr

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RBIs (for example) are what they are. Every time you drive in a runner, chalk one up.

Do RBIs show how good, or valuable, a hitter is? Not particularly. Are they influenced by teammates, position in the batting order, and so on? Of course. But that's irrelevant. The stat accurately represents what it's supposed to. No more, but no less, either. If there's a flaw with RBI, it's in the the way some choose to interpret and emphasize the stat, not in the stat itself.

OPS, on the other hand, isn't a bad tool for judging a player's value, but by pretending that OBP and slugging are equally important and that you can simply add them together, it misrepresents their true values. RBI may be simple and limited in scope, but at least it doesn't introduce any fallacies.


I guess we will have to agree to disagree on this one. :) Thanks for the response though.

vr

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Postby Tavish » Thu Feb 24, 2005 6:52 pm

Arlo wrote:RBIs (for example) are what they are. Every time you drive in a runner, chalk one up.


That is absolutely the biggest reason that OPS has never caught on with the general public. At its root it represents nothing tangible. People are finally coming around to recognize OBA (I still feel in my gut one of these days the OBA leaders will be published in USA Today right next to the HR, RBI leader) because you can see the stat and know what it means. Honestly I think Runs Created will catch on better someday than OPS ever will.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Feb 24, 2005 6:55 pm

Arlo wrote:RBI may be simple and limited in scope, but at least it doesn't introduce any fallacies.


I don't think that "not producing any fallacies" should be the measure of a good or bad stat. For fantasy purposes, RBI and R are simple, which is why they've been used for so long.

However, 3OPS (3*OBA + SLG) is very accurate in showing a player's value to his team. And it's very easy to calulate. There are more complicated formula's to calculate value but they involve a lot more work.

So for fantasy: simple, meaningless stats like BA and RBI are fine to use. But for evaluating real-life value... they're obviously next to useless.
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Postby xeifrank » Thu Feb 24, 2005 6:58 pm

So for fantasy: simple, meaningless stats like BA and RBI are fine to use. But for evaluating real-life value... they're obviously next to useless.


I agree with that. Just add Runs, SBs, Wins, Losses, WHIP, Holds, IPs etc... to the mix. Simple and meaningless. Great for fantasy sports.

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Postby Tavish » Thu Feb 24, 2005 7:00 pm

xeifrank wrote:
So for fantasy: simple, meaningless stats like BA and RBI are fine to use. But for evaluating real-life value... they're obviously next to useless.


I agree with that. Just add Runs, SBs, Wins, Losses, WHIP, Holds, IPs etc... to the mix. Simple and meaningless. Great for fantasy sports.

vr

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How are SB, WHIP, IP meaningless?
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Postby xeifrank » Thu Feb 24, 2005 7:14 pm

Tavish wrote:
xeifrank wrote:
So for fantasy: simple, meaningless stats like BA and RBI are fine to use. But for evaluating real-life value... they're obviously next to useless.


I agree with that. Just add Runs, SBs, Wins, Losses, WHIP, Holds, IPs etc... to the mix. Simple and meaningless. Great for fantasy sports.

vr

Xei


How are SB, WHIP, IP meaningless?


If you read my initial post on this thread it will put my last statement into context. I am not saying that the stolen base in and of itself is meaningless, as a stolen base helps your team. But you also have to take into consideration the unsuccessful stolen base.

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Postby JDD » Thu Feb 24, 2005 7:49 pm

I cannot believe we don't see more leagues using holds and balks... not to mention the times a batter is hit by a pitch, or reaches base by way of catcher's interference.

1.1 Craig Biggio....
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Postby nikku88 » Thu Feb 24, 2005 8:40 pm

I think one reason many people still like traditional stats is that they are so simple to understand. People can visualize RBI, so when you see a play who had 100 RBI, we know what that means.
If it gets to the point that we are using stats that are too complicated, they just won't be as interesting. Look at QB rating, I have no idea what is going on in that one. :-D
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Postby bleach168 » Thu Feb 24, 2005 9:37 pm

Lots of categories are flawed in the sense that it doesn't relect well on the real game. That's ok because the goal is to create a system in which more knowledgeable fantasy players can outperform less knowledgeable fantasy players. The only object is to eliminate the luck factor.

A-Rod is not going to hit for a higher average than Ichiro unless he is extremely lucky. 99% of the time, that's not going to happen. A good fantasy player will realize that and be able to measure the effects of that on their fantasy team. Even though .avg is a poor way of measuring the true value of a ballplayer, it works fine as a fantasy baseball category.

Of the 10 typical categories we use today, the only one I would question the validity of is the Wins category. I believe that doing well in that category has more to do with luck than skill. Especially when it comes to RP wins. An RP can get anywhere from 1-10 wins. I have yet to figure out a way to predict that.
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