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Josh "The Blister Boy" Beckett

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Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 24, 2005 12:23 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:The risk is too high of him missing half the season.



Clearly Beckett can pitch. He hasn't lived up to the hype but he can be a top 10 SP if he is healthy. That is why you should draft him in the 7th and get a good back up in case he can't go.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Thu Feb 24, 2005 12:32 pm

Not when other good options in the 7th round exist. 7th still has some pretty solid talent and I see no reason to speculate on a hiistoric injury risk who has never once manged to stay healthy. You can likely pick up anyone from Drew to Benitez to Renteria to Sexson to Patterson to Kent to Furcal to maybe Damon etc. in that range. There is bound to be someone that is a better bet. Round 9 is where things start to become a bit dodgy in most leagues and by round 12 the speculation, mediocrity and fill-ins have begun.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 24, 2005 12:36 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:Not when other good options in the 7th round exist. 7th still has some pretty solid talent and I see no reason to speculate on a hiistoric injury risk who has never once manged to stay healthy. You can likely pick up anyone from Drew to Benitez to Renteria to Sexson to Patterson to Kent to Furcal to maybe Damon etc. in that range. There is bound to be someone that is a better bet. Round 9 is where things start to become a bit dodgy in most leagues and by round 12 the speculation, mediocrity and fill-ins have begun.


None of those guys you mentioned have the ceiling that Beckett has IMO. Drew was in a similar situation until 04. That is why I was able to pick him up in the 14th round and everyone in my league laughed at me. I'm sure the reaction will be the same when I pick up Beckett in the 7th this year. ;-D
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Postby TheYanks04 » Thu Feb 24, 2005 12:42 pm

Beckett in the 14th would be a nice pickup... in the 7th you are gambling on a premium pick...to each his own.

He has proven nada outside of his injury prone nature. Just like Drew last year in the 14th, why would you elevate him to a Drew level this year as if he was going to stay healthy? By the same logic, you could grab Beckett round 12 as the comparison with Drew last year is a reasonable one. Drew had the talent and everyone knew it...just could not stay healthy. So he went round 14. Now he goes round 7-10. You are promoting Beckett as if he is certain to stay healthy and paying the premium 1 year ahead of time. Someone else wants to do that, be my guest I say. For every Drew there will be 3 or 4 Gimpys.
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Postby Nails » Thu Feb 24, 2005 12:52 pm

He has proven nada outside of his injury prone nature.



I would say he has proven to be pretty dominant WHEN healthy. His Career numbers look a little like this:

ERA 3.49
WHIP 1.26
IP 430.1
K's 441

Now his record isn't impressive at 26-26, but we all know record is no predictor of a good pitcher. The year he stays healthy all year....Top 5
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Postby TheYanks04 » Thu Feb 24, 2005 1:00 pm

So did Drew and until last year...he NEVER did either. Same argument that we hear for Griffey each year....IF he stays healthy.

That is a huge IF. And when you draft you have to be a fool not to factor that into your rankings. Sure IF Beckett stays healthy he may be a round 5 player. But how likely is that to happen? Is it worth passing on a Damon or Furcal or some other palyer of round 7 caliber? Depends on who obviously you are comparing him too, but most likely not. I have no problem with Beckett in the 9th or 10th round. 7th is just too early IMO to be taking on that risk on someone with his track record of blisters and missing time. He does you no good on the DL.
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