ender - how do you explain the fact that Abreu has never finished higher than 14th best hitter and never in the top 20 overall players before last yr at the age of 31 - yet now, after finishing 6th overall in '04, he is considered a top 10 pick
Take a look at his career. His AVG last year was right where it should be. His SB's were slightly high but the team ran more in general, I see that as a trend not an abberation. His R's were a career high which is not surprising with Thome batting behind him and given the fact he walks a lot it should be repeated. His RBI are up but again thats to be expected. Rollins finally took off and the phillies 1/2 hitters in general were much better last year. That leaves HR as the only question mark.
His last few years of HR have been 20, 25, 31, 20. 20, 30 so you have to assuming he'll get between 20 and 30 HR. I'm a big believer that the new ballpark favors HR and his home vs road splits would seem to indicate thats true last year. I pencil him in for 25-30 HR.
So I think you are looking at .300 avg, 25 hr, 115 R, 105 RBI, 35 SB for him this year if you want a pretty safe projection.
Beltran moved to a pitchers park with a big contract that may or may not cut down on his basestealing, he's also likely batting in the middle of the lineup which will cut down on his SB. He's in a pretty weak lineup and is likely to lose R/RBI chances because of it, especially once piazza gets hurt. Beltran's safe projections for me are something like... .270, 34 hr, 105 R, 100 RBI, 30 SB.
Abreu very well could have as good a year as Beltran in my book. I don't think Abreu is the 6th best hitter in baseball, but he's one of the 2 best proven 5 tool players in baseball (beltran is 4 tool with that low avg, which very well may go up this year) and I think that says a lot. He's had solid years 6 years in a row and is in the strongest lineup he's ever seen in a park that favors hitters much more than his old one.
I'll still take beltran ahead of abreu because of his upside. The next choice after Abreu for me would be manny ramirez or bonds probably, but for my money in fantasy I prefer the 5 tool players to the 4 tools. Having a 30 SB power hitter means you don't have to get a 3 tool SB guy like crawford or pierre.
fiz wrote:crap. now im even more confused. im just hesitant to take a P with my first pick...
IMO at that position it'd be a very hard decision between Tejada and Santana. If you don't want to draft a pitcher then get Tejada. Ain't no shame in picking up the best SS in the league with the 5 pick.
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I was going to suggest Manny, who seeems to put up monster stats every year. I'm not sure if everyone will agree with me on this...but I think Abreu's risky since he's just as likely to produce third round value as first round value, and I think it's risky to take a pitcher. I think Manny is a safe, solid pick in this position. Anyone agree?
Of course, for those people who say that a stolen base is worth about twice as much as a homer...obviously, Abreu would then become the logical pick, since even if he just hits 20-20, that would be the equivalent of 60 HR and 0 SB. But if all you're looking for is a 20-20 guy who can hit .300, take Lew Ford ten rounds later.
JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:Of course, for those people who say that a stolen base is worth about twice as much as a homer...obviously, Abreu would then become the logical pick, since even if he just hits 20-20, that would be the equivalent of 60 HR and 0 SB. But if all you're looking for is a 20-20 guy who can hit .300, take Lew Ford ten rounds later.
I'm not sure the lew ford comparison is fair, abreu literally doubled him in HR and SB last season in just about the same ABs...
Don't take Manny. Abreu out earns him. I would take RJ myself. If you are set on not taking a pitcher then Abreu, Helton, Miggy are the options. Miggy earns a bit less then the other 2, but i still think Miggy hasn't seen his best year, and you wrap up ss. Me and CM disagree a bit on Abreu, as some in mlb feel Abreu could even get better.
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by JustAnotherYanksFan » Thu Feb 24, 2005 11:18 am
fiz wrote:I'm not sure the lew ford comparison is fair, abreu literally doubled him in HR and SB last season in just about the same ABs...
Obviously I was exaggerating a little...but all I'm saying is that Abreu basically went 20-30 in '02 and 20-20 in '03. If he put up his '04 numbers, I'd be thrilled to take him, but I suspect that he'll never quite put up those numbers again.
I'd definitely take Tejada first, if he's there. If not, I'd lean towards Manny. I'd certainly take him over Helton, since Helton, who's aging and has no lineup around him, will likely hit about 10 less homers and 35 less RBI's than Manny.
If you're willing to take a pitcher, then both RJ and Johan have the potential to be fantasy MVP's. Either one would be a good choice as well.
But as far as Manny vs. Abreu...I think it depends on how much SB are really worth, and what numbers you think he'll put up. If he hits 25-35 with about 110 runs and 100 RBI, is that better than Manny's 40 HR with 110 runs and 130 RBI (and probably a slightly higher average)? If he hits 22-28, is that good enough? Is there some sort of method to determine the absolute worth a player in a non-points league?