he had 4 CG last year - and had at least three leads blown by the philly bullpen.
I think cleveland is in a much easier division
think tigers royals white sox
as opposed to
marlins, braves, and (this year) mets (and last year - puerto rico park)
look out side division rivals and I'd say american league hitting is probably tougher than national league - BUT also throw in the fact that millwood doesn't have to hit and run this year. (which limits his injury risk a little bit - which it was already pretty low in my opinion)
addditionally you mention the weak cleveland bullpen - but really - they have 5 guys who are close to "closer caliber" pitchers in riske, rhodes, betancourt, cabrera and wickman.
Wickman is a former top notch kinda guy everyone seems to have forgotten about. from 1999-2001 He had 30+ saves every year and a sub 3.0 ERA when you average the three years(3.3,2.3,3.1)
in 2002 he got hurt - and this is the first year he's coming into spring training completely healthy since then.
I think millwood gets 18-20 wins this year if things work out right but I wanted to see what everyone else thinks.