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Santana

Postby Remotethumb » Tue Feb 22, 2005 4:44 pm

I see the point of the argument...I'm sure this has been said again and again, but if I valued Santan as #1, I would gamble and trade down to pick #4...
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Postby bleach168 » Tue Feb 22, 2005 4:55 pm

LBJackal wrote:
fantasyfiend wrote:Johan Santana's performance (statistically) last season (in a 5x5 league) was worth 2 ichiro's combined.


Care to explain this? How exactly did you manipulate the stats enough to put Santana twice as valuable as Ichiro? RotoTimes had the dollar values as $39 for Ichiro, and $43 for Santana. Last time I checked, 39 times two does not equal 43.


ESPN's player rater.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Feb 22, 2005 5:26 pm

bleach168 wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
fantasyfiend wrote:Johan Santana's performance (statistically) last season (in a 5x5 league) was worth 2 ichiro's combined.


Care to explain this? How exactly did you manipulate the stats enough to put Santana twice as valuable as Ichiro? RotoTimes had the dollar values as $39 for Ichiro, and $43 for Santana. Last time I checked, 39 times two does not equal 43.


ESPN's player rater.


That's nice but I don't put any stock into something that says Ichiro was worth half of what Santana was worth. This isn't a dollar value, and you're using it like it is. It's a number that shows how far above the average stat total. Does it take into account the amount of AB's Ichiro had while getting his BA? Does it take into account that RP's pitch less innings than SP's yet are viewed on the same level in terms of K's? Does it specify the sample size of players? No, no, and no. What you have is a fairly meaningless tool and I can't believe you're using it as evidence that Ichiro was worth half of Santana last year. It says Jamie Moyer's K's were worth more than Dotel and K-rod's. Please... you can't be serious.
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Postby duckbillgates » Tue Feb 22, 2005 5:49 pm

Strasil42 wrote:
beltrans_boy wrote:
mtarail wrote:What about a year and a half? Santana has been posting rock solid numbers since he became a starter after the '03 all-star break.


Apparently you missed the first half of last season. His numbers were far from "rock solid"


apparently you missed the fact that he had surgery at the beginning of the year. Hence the slow start.


Thank you. That's been driving me crazy the whole time I've read this. He had off-season surgery. Didn't pitch winter ball.
I kept him last year, and I was expecting a slow start. Of course, I wasn't expecting the dividends I would reap, but who's complaining?
I just wish people would admit there is a verifiable reason for the slow start.
And, as long as we're extrapolating stats over full season, why don't we take Johan's most recent stats. In his six starts in September, he gave up two runs.
So, I'll take that and project:
28 wins, 300 strikeouts, 0.68 WHIP and 0.45 ERA
I read that if every HIT he gave up after the all-star break was a run, his ERA for that period would be a respectable 4.51. These numbers are insane.
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Postby bleach168 » Tue Feb 22, 2005 5:56 pm

Does it take into account the amount of AB's Ichiro had while getting his BA?


Yes it does. Ichiro scored a +3.44 for his BA. Second was Helton at +1.93. Bonds comes in sevent at +1.62.

Does it take into account that RP's pitch less innings than SP's yet are viewed on the same level in terms of K's?


No it does not, but neither does Rototimes. Rototimes has Moyer scoring higher on K's than Gagne.

Does it specify the sample size of players?


No, but I fail to see how that has any significant change on the results.

And it's funny how you criticize how ESPN uses points instead of money values when Rototimes also uses a points system also. The dollar value Rototimes adds at the last second is based on how many points each player scored.

If you take a closer look at the Rototimes ranking, they have Ichiro scoring +5.73 overall and Santana scoring +9.51 overall. These scores supposedly represent how many additional points in your team's overall roto score if you owned one of these guys.

What I don't get is why Ichiro is valued only $4 less than Santana when Santana scores nearly twice as high as Ichiro in points. Please explain that one.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Feb 22, 2005 6:06 pm

Because Santana isn't worth twice as much. Those values ESPN came up with are not meant to be used to compare players the same way dollar values are. Find me one credible person to agree that Santana was worth anywhere near twice as much as Ichiro last year in mixed 5x5. If you want me to, I'll get soemone to disprove it. I really doubt it will come to that because I doubt you believe Santana was worth twice as much as Ichiro - seems like you're just using it to try to win an argument. Nobody in their right mind would believe that.
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Postby bleach168 » Tue Feb 22, 2005 6:41 pm

LBJackal wrote:Because Santana isn't worth twice as much. Those values ESPN came up with are not meant to be used to compare players the same way dollar values are. Find me one credible person to agree that Santana was worth anywhere near twice as much as Ichiro last year in mixed 5x5. If you want me to, I'll get soemone to disprove it. I really doubt it will come to that because I doubt you believe Santana was worth twice as much as Ichiro - seems like you're just using it to try to win an argument. Nobody in their right mind would believe that.


Assuming I am right (which I think I am), even if no one agreed with me, that doesn't make me wrong.

In fact, I think I figured out why Rototimes has Ichiro rated so close to Santana monetarily but not close points wise. I'll post my theory when I get time.

After my next post, I'll be done with the subject. If you still don't want to see it my way, no sweat off my back. I'm just going to try to make my case as best as I can and leave it at that.
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Postby BurlyMan » Tue Feb 22, 2005 7:38 pm

That Santana is not worth "2 Ichiros" is exactly what I have been saying...

I know nothing about ESPN player rater, which I have already admitted. However, I have never seen nor heard of any ranking/points system in fantasy baseball that would put Santana at double Ichiro value. I checked USAToday, MLB.com, rotochamps...I gave up after that because there was no point in going further.

They all agree, as do I, Santana is clearly a higher pick than Ichiro. Nobody can dispute that. But the most lopsided projections I could find put Santana at roughly 50% more value (and remember, that was the most extreme differential I could find).

I said in a previous post I don't think any serious, competitive fantasy manager would take (1) Santana in round 1 vs. (2) Ichiros in round 1 with round 2 yet to start. I stand by that and have a hard time imagining someone justifying otherwise, regardless of the ESPN player rater.

The ORIGINAL post I made was not comparing Ichiro and Santana in value in any way. I simply used Ichiro's 2nd half numbers to illustrate you obviously can't base a full season's projections on a torrid 3 months. I also said I would probably draft Johnson over Santana, by an extremely slim (and certainly debatable) margin....but wouldn't draft either unless one of them slipped into the late first round.

Thanks for at least saving my sanity, Jackal. Nobody posted any replies, and I was starting to wonder if EVERYbody out there would really put Santana's value at 2x Ichiro :-o
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Postby BurlyMan » Tue Feb 22, 2005 7:49 pm

Manny + Ichiro = Santana (2004 stats)

You can draft Manny in the first and Ichiro in the second while someone else drafts Santana. Both your teams are equal except you spent two picks and the Santana owner spent one. Now add in a free second round pick for the Santana owner and you will see what an advantage Santana could be.


Wow...so instead of (2) Ichiros, now Santana alone is worth Manny and Ichiro? :-?

Yuck :-P Thats even more lopsided than the 2 Ichiros :-t
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Postby bleach168 » Tue Feb 22, 2005 8:20 pm

Here we go...

Typically, when a person prepares for an auction draft, he devotes 60-70% of his money towards hitting. The reason they spend twice as much on hitting than pitching is because hitting is just more predictable than pitching.

However, we are looking at past results which means we have perfect clarity. With perfect clarity, you need to have a 50:50 split because pitching and hitting both comprise 50% of your overall score.

This is where Rototimes tricks you into thinking Ichiro is worth almost as much as Santana in 2004. If you look at the fine print on the previous year's ratings you will find,

The table below presents both dollar values and net standings points broken down by category. A 169.000000 to 91.000000 hitting to pitching spending breakdown was assumed, and average league differential spreads in the categories were used.


For some reason, this piece of fine print was omitted in the 2004 ratings. That's why I didn't realize it at first.

Remember, even Rototimes admits that owning Santana probably netted you +9.51 points in the standings and Ichiro netted you +5.73 points. Isn't that what matters the most?

As a side note, Manny netted you +4.53. So saying Manny + Ichiro = Santana or 4.53 + 5.73 = 9.51 is fairly accurate.
Last edited by bleach168 on Tue Feb 22, 2005 8:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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