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Postby CubsFan7724 » Mon Feb 21, 2005 9:04 pm

Yeah, I think the sky's the limit for this kid. But I wouldn't take him or RJ until after the 4th pick I'd think. But then everyone has very similar value. I make take RJ over ARod in a redraft, but I'm leery of drafting pitchers early.
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Postby BurlyMan » Mon Feb 21, 2005 9:10 pm

Hmm....so you would take Johan Santana instead of 2 Ichiros? :-?
The player rater might say that makes sense, but that sense is lost on me. With 2 Ichiros you trade one to fill another need (maybe a power hitter, or solid starter). So, instead of Santana, you have Ichiro AND a good starter or Ichiro AND a power hitter. Seems to me you are adding far more value to your team by adding to almost every category.

I have to disagree on upside in the case of Santana. We just saw one of the greatest 2nd halves, in pitching terms, in modern history. He won the Cy Young award. To me, "upside" means he can improve his statistics relative to the previous year, and considering what he just did, simply a repeat would be phenomenal. Unless you think he will post a sub 2 ERA, in what way can he possibly top 2004? He won't start as bad, I can see that...but nor will he finish as lights-out. In what areas do you see his 2005 numbers topping his 2004?

One thing Santana is not for 2005 is a value pick :-) Regardless of what he does, you will pay full price for it. Either a massive bid in an auction, or using a first round pick in a snake draft. I'm not saying he won't be worth it...again, I'm a big booster of his and would absolutely love to have him again.

Just not not at #1, and not over Johnson.
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Postby BurlyMan » Mon Feb 21, 2005 9:19 pm

Agree with Cubsfan here...I prefer the consistency of hitters over pitchers with a 1st round pick. If I have the choice of, say, Guerrero or Santana/Johnson, I take Guerrero in a second.

If people let those 2 pitchers fall into the late 1st round, then I snatch one up.
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Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Feb 21, 2005 9:43 pm

BurlyMan wrote:Hmm....so you would take Johan Santana instead of 2 Ichiros? :-?
The player rater might say that makes sense, but that sense is lost on me. With 2 Ichiros you trade one to fill another need (maybe a power hitter, or solid starter). So, instead of Santana, you have Ichiro AND a good starter or Ichiro AND a power hitter. Seems to me you are adding far more value to your team by adding to almost every category.


Can you explain to me (or anybody else for that matter) the logic in wanting 2 players who match the value of 1.

Thats like me wanting Mike Sweeney, and Rafael Palmeiro at 1b (since they both hit 20 HR's and will equal alberts 40) over Albert Pujols (because i can trade one of them for a pitcher)

yes the BA's are different but you get the point.

I have to disagree on upside in the case of Santana. We just saw one of the greatest 2nd halves, in pitching terms, in modern history. He won the Cy Young award. To me, "upside" means he can improve his statistics relative to the previous year, and considering what he just did, simply a repeat would be phenomenal. Unless you think he will post a sub 2 ERA, in what way can he possibly top 2004? He won't start as bad, I can see that...but nor will he finish as lights-out. In what areas do you see his 2005 numbers topping his 2004?


It was more then a 'half' . it was 4 months of complete lights out pitching.

June - September the highest ERA he posted through that 4 month span was 2.39 (in June)

to say he can't improve on that 2.60 ERA (when his first two months of pitching were in the high 5's) is asanine

April: 28IP 24K
May: 33IP 30K
-----------------------
June: 38IP 46K
-----------------------
July: 46IP 61K
August: 43IP 52K
September: 40IP 52K

Do you see where his K #'s plateau? judging by the improved innings and k-rate its safe to say you can expect more strikeout #'s (even more so then last season) his k rate has been up in the mid 11's in the past.....last season it was 10.46

last season at 25 he was more valueable then 2 ichiro's ( a guy who go's on average 5-10 picks later--even with his first 2 month struggles) and finished far ahead of everybody else on the final player rater...i think your discounting the impact first 2 months of almost 6era have on your #'s....to still finish where he did highlights his value, and potential. remember he's still only 25 yrs old.

Also explain to me how RJ a 42 year old pitcher with a lingering knee injury who didn't match a 25 yr old pitchers season has more "draft value" then Santana

Lets not forget RJ is moving to the AL, and his k/9 has been on a steady decline since 2001.
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Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Tue Feb 22, 2005 12:53 am

Logic says that there's no way he'll repeat his 4-month stretch at the end of last season. But I think logic also says that he's even more unlikely to repeat his 2-month stretch at the beginning of last season in which his ERA was above 5.

It's possible, I think, that Santana will put up an ERA around 2.70, a WHIP around 0.95, and about 250 K's, ending up with a season little better the season of someone like Ben Sheets or Jason Schmidt. In that case, it means a slight overspending, but it's certainly (in my mind) a lesser risk than drafting someone like Bonds, who's an enormous injury/age risk, or Soriano, who's not guaranteed to bounce back.

It's possible that he'll put up slightly worse numbers - maybe a 3.00 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and 215 K's.

It's possible that he'll get injured, but honestly, despite the fact that he's a pitcher, I think Santana's injury risk is no higher than Pujols' (foot) or Vlad's (back) - and certainly lower than Bonds' or Johnson's.

But it's also possible that he'll pick up where he left off in October of 2004. Maybe not quite - but maybe something like this: 2.15 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 300 K's. Maybe the ERA will dip below 2. It's not impossible, even today - in '94 and '95, Maddux posted ERAs of 1.56 and 1.63. Pedro? 1.90 and 1.74 in '97 and '00.

So why wouldn't I spend my top pick on Santana? Because this is only a possibility. If I want him that badly, I'll take Pujols and trade down for Santana. I wouldn't call it stupid to draft him at #1 overall. At worst (barring injury, which I'd say is just as big a concern with Pujols as with Santana, since Santana, despite being a pitcher, has no known injuries), Santana is a top ace, level with Schmidt and Sheets and Prior. At best, he's far and away the most valuable player. But as of now, I don't have quite enough balls to back that up, so I'm not taking him until 5th to 7th overall. But for those who want to take him at 1st overall, I can't criticize you at all.
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Postby BurlyMan » Tue Feb 22, 2005 4:04 am

I do get your point...though guys like Sweeny and Palmeiro aren't good examples since they're both old and declining whereas Santana and Ichiro are not.

You said Ichiro normally goes 5-10 picks after Santana, and you want me to explain why I would take 2 Ichiros over Santana:

If someone takes Santana #1, then I pick at 7/8 (impossible of course, but this is a theoretical argument anyways) and take my back-to-back Ichiros. Then I'm going to pick again at 17 and you pick again at 24. So, all I'm saying is I get more value here. You get picks 1 and 24. I get 7, 8, 17. I get 3 of the first 17 picks. If Ichiro goes 5-10 picks after Santana, then yes, I would rather have 2 late 1st rounders than one #1 pick. Of course, this is based on saying Santana is worth more than 2 Ichiros.

No, Johnson is not a value pick either, not at all, never claimed he was. Just said I'd probably draft him over Santana by a little.
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Postby fantasyfiend » Tue Feb 22, 2005 4:52 am

Johan Santana's performance (statistically) last season (in a 5x5 league) was worth 2 ichiro's combined.

Johan Santana occupies one spot on your roster, 2 ichiro's occupies 2 spots on your roster.

Right now in drafts...Santana is going between 8-10 on average .. while ichiro is falling to early second round about 5 picks later.

If Santana and Ichiro both have identical seasons to last year, you'd essentially be getting a guy who doubles ichiro's output only 5 picks earlier.

It just shines light on how valueable a commodity Santana's potential output could be this season, and just shows more evidence on why he could/should be taken #1 overrall.
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Postby bleach168 » Tue Feb 22, 2005 5:37 am

BurlyMan wrote:I do get your point...though guys like Sweeny and Palmeiro aren't good examples since they're both old and declining whereas Santana and Ichiro are not.

You said Ichiro normally goes 5-10 picks after Santana, and you want me to explain why I would take 2 Ichiros over Santana:

If someone takes Santana #1, then I pick at 7/8 (impossible of course, but this is a theoretical argument anyways) and take my back-to-back Ichiros. Then I'm going to pick again at 17 and you pick again at 24. So, all I'm saying is I get more value here. You get picks 1 and 24. I get 7, 8, 17. I get 3 of the first 17 picks. If Ichiro goes 5-10 picks after Santana, then yes, I would rather have 2 late 1st rounders than one #1 pick. Of course, this is based on saying Santana is worth more than 2 Ichiros.

No, Johnson is not a value pick either, not at all, never claimed he was. Just said I'd probably draft him over Santana by a little.


You're missing the point. Let's say change it to this...

Manny + Ichiro = Santana (2004 stats)

You can draft Manny in the first and Ichiro in the second while someone else drafts Santana. Both your teams are equal except you spent two picks and the Santana owner spent one. Now add in a free second round pick for the Santana owner and you will see what an advantage Santana could be.
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Postby Strasil42 » Tue Feb 22, 2005 3:35 pm

beltrans_boy wrote:
mtarail wrote:What about a year and a half? Santana has been posting rock solid numbers since he became a starter after the '03 all-star break.


Apparently you missed the first half of last season. His numbers were far from "rock solid"


apparently you missed the fact that he had surgery at the beginning of the year. Hence the slow start.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Feb 22, 2005 3:50 pm

fantasyfiend wrote:Johan Santana's performance (statistically) last season (in a 5x5 league) was worth 2 ichiro's combined.


Care to explain this? How exactly did you manipulate the stats enough to put Santana twice as valuable as Ichiro? RotoTimes had the dollar values as $39 for Ichiro, and $43 for Santana. Last time I checked, 39 times two does not equal 43.
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