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Postby Skippyoz » Mon Feb 21, 2005 5:09 pm

One more thing, the name of the thread is that Santana is the KG of Fantasy Baseball. KG is so valuable because he helps in 7 of 8 categories (and gets a three every 8-12 games. And, he's been doing this for quite some time.

Santana helps in 4 of 5 pitching categories (he probably won't get many saves). Even though he is ridiculously dominant in all four of those cats, it is still only 4 of 5.
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Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Feb 21, 2005 5:09 pm

I made that quote in response to this statement:

I have to admit - if he replictes the 2nd half of last season over the entire season he would be the fantasy MVP in '05 - thats the argument though - will he do it again, but this time for the entire season? -- Cornbread Maxwell


no duh its the biggest "if" statement ever.
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Re: santana

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon Feb 21, 2005 5:14 pm

gforce1124 wrote:it might it wise to consider the steroid fiasco when discussing this point. i dont think anyone would agrue that of the number of steroid users in MLB, the vast majority are hitters as opposed to pitchers. maybe hitting stats will decline on the whole, with some steroid users becoming scared of being caught? its also almost impossible to tell which players were using and, in turn, which might see a sharp decline in stats this year if they stop (a la giambi last year?) With this in mind, might it be smart to inch santana up your draft list?


One of the things you have to consider - even during the peak roid years, the most dominate fantasy players were pitchers.
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Postby Pedantic » Mon Feb 21, 2005 5:26 pm

Skippyoz wrote:One more thing, the name of the thread is that Santana is the KG of Fantasy Baseball. KG is so valuable because he helps in 7 of 8 categories (and gets a three every 8-12 games. And, he's been doing this for quite some time.

Santana helps in 4 of 5 pitching categories (he probably won't get many saves). Even though he is ridiculously dominant in all four of those cats, it is still only 4 of 5.


Well, if we're counting all categories, than Santana only helps in four out of ten. But, yes, very good point.
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Postby Mills13 » Mon Feb 21, 2005 7:40 pm

No, no, and no. Santana is not a number one pick. When RJ was on the Diamondbacks before the injury, he was a consistent number one pick because he was by far not only the best pitcher, but GUARANTEED you K's, wins, ERA, and WHIP. I don't remember any hitters who could win four categories like Johnson was.
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Postby Zito is God » Mon Feb 21, 2005 7:43 pm

KolbSaves wrote:
Zito is God wrote:It has nothing to do with my last years prediction, I never liked the guy and I never will. If I could have a top 5 list of guys I'd want to fail miserably he'd be #1, pedro would be #2 and maybe some other guys, but yeah, Santana's bitterness was never about my wrong prediction, I hated the guy before the start of last season...

Why, what's there to hate about him?

Did you make your prediction about him failing last year because you hated him? That's pretty weak.


No, last year's prediction was fueled by my hatred for the guy, but no entirely the reason at all.
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Postby BurlyMan » Mon Feb 21, 2005 8:26 pm

Figured I'd chime in as a Santana owner the last 2 years. In 2003 I traded for him mid-season right before he went full time in the rotation, and drafted him in the 7th or 8th round last year. As the backbone of my staff, he was a major reason I went on to win. I watched 8 of his post all-star starts, and yes, it was an amazing thing to see. So I suppose that would make me as big a Santana booster as anyone, but I still wouldn't draft him ahead of Johnson.

First of all, Johnson wasn't any better than Santana last year, or any worse. Their numbers are real tight, and the K difference is nil when you factor in NL pitching (no DH). I figure their raw numbers are a wash. Since we can't solidy predict massive declines (can't predict injury for Johnson anymore than a huge regression for Santana) risk with both is about the same. But when you take a proven HOF pitcher with a rock-solid track record of dominance...put him on a 100-win team, in a park unfriendly to right handed power...thats just too much to pass up. Unless he gets hurt, he will dominate. Santana will be a beast, but in a world (FB ;-D ) where leagues could be won or lost on a single win, I give the tiniest edge to Johnson.

While I would be thrilled to start my staff with either one, I get the distinct impression Johan's insane 2nd half will push his draft spot too high. I love the guy, but saying he'll just roll right into 2005 on the same streak is like saying Ichiro hit .429 post break so he's going to hit at least .390 this year. Somewhere in between the law of averages kicks in.

And for the record...I wouldn't draft a pitcher with my #1 pick anyways, unless someboy let one of these guys fall to me at the tail end of round 1.

Vladimir Guerrero is an animal ;-D
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Postby bleach168 » Mon Feb 21, 2005 8:37 pm

BurlyMan wrote:While I would be thrilled to start my staff with either one, I get the distinct impression Johan's insane 2nd half will push his draft spot too high. I love the guy, but saying he'll just roll right into 2005 on the same streak is like saying Ichiro hit .429 post break so he's going to hit at least .390 this year. Somewhere in between the law of averages kicks in.


According to ESPN's player rater, Johan was worth twice as much as Ichiro last year. Both had phenomenal seasons, but if Ichiro is worth a second round pick (which I don't think he is), then Johan is the #1 pick.
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Postby BurlyMan » Mon Feb 21, 2005 8:45 pm

I'm not comparing the two in value, just using Ichiro as an example of torrid stretches. Can't use Ichiro's 2nd half and say "well, then he'll continue that and hit .400 this year". Same with Santana, can't look at his 2nd half alone and say "he's going to win 30 games with a 1.40 ERA and .7 WHIP".

I'm not at all familiar with ESPN's player rater, but I'm pretty sure any fantasy manager would take 2 Ichiros compared to one Santana.
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Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Feb 21, 2005 8:57 pm

I dont think anybody's expecting Santana to tear up the league like he did the 2nd half, but he showed just how dominate he could be.

The player rater shows that if he puts up similiar #'s (even adding in the horrible start) that he's twice as valuable as Ichiro was last year.

I dont think anybody going into this season has 'higher' upside.
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