What categories would be best to emulate real baseball? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

What categories would be best to emulate real baseball?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby Absolutely Adequate » Mon Feb 21, 2005 9:48 pm

Sorry to bump this, but I really like Tavish's point totals for hitters. The problem? I need similar numbers for pitchers. And I'd love to know where they come from.
Absolutely Adequate
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 5000
Joined: 6 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Not here.

Postby AcidRock23 » Mon Feb 21, 2005 10:16 pm

hmmm, I still think that more categories can get a bit closer, as it devalues each individual category. If SB are 20% of what you measure offensively, that's not quite how 'real' baseball' your offensive output, they are worth quite a bit more than they are in real life.

W/ the cats we are using, I did not see anyone able to corner the market on enough categories to guarantee a win and the playoffs have been hotly contested each time. The best I was able to do was win some close games by checking matchups carefully on Friday night but I lost a few of those too, when the other guy did better than I was able to project him doing.

AB, R, H, HR, RBI, SB, BB, K, E, AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS
W, L, CG, SHO, SV, HR, BB, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP, K/9

The only other thing I'd really like to do would be something goofy, like GWRBI or something of that nature to counter the CG/ SHO categories for SP, which don't really have any counterparts in the other categories. If I have time, maybe I'll try to set up a 'dummy' league w/ the same teams and administer it for purely experimenal purposes, w/ 5x5 Roto scoring, rather than the categories we are using. The only hassle w/ that is that I'm going on vacation the day after the draft which may pose some time challenges as the season's starting a couple of days after I get back.

Or, if I get REALLY focused, I might try to put together an All-Average team and see if I can clean up on hitting and score some of the top pitchers while 'punting' HR. Then I can 'lose' here but win there. Hmmmm.
AcidRock23
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle Eye
Posts: 4170
Joined: 8 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Champaign, IL

Postby Absolutely Adequate » Mon Feb 21, 2005 10:20 pm

That's interesting, AcidRock, but I worry about having too many categories. I would think that people would become disinterested. Also - in my league - if you go 9-6-1 in a given week, you get 9 wins, six losses, and one tie. You don't just get one win, which is how I think you do it in your league.

But thanks for the input.
Absolutely Adequate
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 5000
Joined: 6 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Not here.

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Feb 21, 2005 10:21 pm

Absolutely Adequate wrote:Sorry to bump this, but I really like Tavish's point totals for hitters. The problem? I need similar numbers for pitchers. And I'd love to know where they come from.


Tavish's numbers are basically from Pete Palmer's linear weights system, and you can find several pretty similar weightings scattered around the web.

The problem for pitchers is that it's more difficult to seperate pitching from fielding. The typical hitter faces a pretty wide selection of pitchers and fielders throughout the year. So, it's pretty easy to make the leap from individual actions to its effect on runs scored.

But while pitchers face a pretty wide selection of hitters, they typically have the same fielders behind them game after game. That makes it hard to take a pitcher's statistics and link it to runs, because you KNOW some of the result is fielding.

There is a recent set of work by Michael Humphries on Baseball Primer in which he does a "Defensive Regression Analysis". If his work stands up, you might be able to create an acceptable linear weights system that adds up individual fielder and pitcher performance into runs allowed.
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby Absolutely Adequate » Mon Feb 21, 2005 10:24 pm

Great, thanks Agnes. I'll look it up. I like the linear weights and even though the pitching stats are defense-dependent, I'm still willing to accept those numbers. I'll look it up.

Oh, and by the way - I know where your name comes from, but does it bother you that we have to call you "Agnes" when addressing you?
Absolutely Adequate
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 5000
Joined: 6 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Not here.

Postby Tavish » Mon Feb 21, 2005 10:30 pm

Absolutely Adequate wrote:Sorry to bump this, but I really like Tavish's point totals for hitters. The problem? I need similar numbers for pitchers. And I'd love to know where they come from.


Sorry I missed the original. The problem is that there really isn't a good metric for pitchers that is in the same vein as lwts for hitters. You could definitely apply lwts to pitchers, but the biggest problem is that very few services track 2B/3B allowed (no fantasy hosts that I know of do). You could most likely come up with a metric that puts them on even footing as hitters but it would be very tough to make it as accurate as lwts is at emulating real life value.

As far as where the numbers come from it basic breakdown of event outcomes. Linear weights are basically a summation of the outcomes for a run expectancy matrix. Of course a single isn't always worth .46 runs, but on average that is the amount it adds to your team's run expectancy.

The numbers originally came from Pete Palmer in The Hidden Game of Baseball and have been tweaked and altered by many different people. I still use the original because it really has shown to remain as accurate as the newer systems even without normalizing.

We did run a Sabre League a few years ago but it was completely different than a points or category league. It was more of a sidebet game between the owners where we drafted rosters and locked the teams. At the end of the season we calculated the offensive RC/27 and then FIP for the pitchers and figured who would have the best winning percentage by the Pythag distribution.
Tavish
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterWeb Supporter
Posts: 11067
(Past Year: 26)
Joined: 3 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Feb 21, 2005 10:46 pm

Absolutely Adequate wrote:Great, thanks Agnes. I'll look it up. I like the linear weights and even though the pitching stats are defense-dependent, I'm still willing to accept those numbers. I'll look it up.

Oh, and by the way - I know where your name comes from, but does it bother you that we have to call you "Agnes" when addressing you?


Are you assuming I'm male? ;-7
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby Absolutely Adequate » Mon Feb 21, 2005 11:06 pm

I assume the same things about you that I assume about everyone here: you're male, caucasion, and a virgin.
Absolutely Adequate
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 5000
Joined: 6 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Not here.

Postby looptid » Tue Feb 22, 2005 2:36 am

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:K/PA -- I would want something that punishes guys with high K totals since I hate "unproductive" outs. But then again I guess that's not very realistic since guys like Dunn, Bellhorn, and Sosa are still on major league rosters.


Are you a big Buster Olney fan? Statistics show a no correlation between his productive outs statistic to team winning percentage. Productive out is up there with military intelligence, jumbo shrimp, and microsoft works.

Dunn posted a .388 OBP last season. Who cares how he makes his outs, when he's not making as many outs as the rest of the league? And if swinging away with two strikes helps yield an eye-popping Isolated Power of .303? Hack away.

The best way I can think to go about emulating real baseball would be to use the Runs Created model. Normalize things by diving total runs created by your offense by 27 outs, and total runs allowed by your staff by 9 innings pitched. It would do the best job of assigning the proper weight to each individual event, from a HR to CS to HBP.
looptid
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 668
Joined: 11 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: St. Paul, MN

Postby looptid » Tue Feb 22, 2005 2:47 am

daweasle wrote:if you're trying to emulate real baseball - try this: (3X3)
R, RBI, AVG
W, L, SV

I don't think it's any advantage to counting SB or HR cause if you score a run thru a HR or thru a SB - it's still only 1 run. HR hitters would still be valuable since they get a run and (at least one) RBI when they hit a HR, and guys like juan pierre and ichiro will still be valuable cause they help your AVG and score alot of runs.

same with pitchers - you get the win or not.....does it matter more when you win 6-0 or when you win 1-0 or when you win 9-8?
I think it still only counts as one win. why does ERA come into play?

It might sound boring - but real baseball can be boring if you look at it that way. it would certainly put an emphasis on the guys you do play.


I know I would have rather had Kenny Rogers than Randy Johnson or Ben Sheets last season, because Rogers is a winner. And what team wouldn't excel with the 1993 version of Ruben Sierra driving in a hundred runs for them?
looptid
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 668
Joined: 11 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: St. Paul, MN

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Majestic-12 [Bot] and 9 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Thursday, Aug. 28
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Chi Cubs at Cincinnati
(12:35 pm)
NY Yankees at Detroit
(1:08 pm)
Colorado at San Francisco
(3:45 pm)
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
(7:05 pm)
Atlanta at NY Mets
(7:10 pm)
Cleveland at Chi White Sox
(8:10 pm)
Texas at Houston
(8:10 pm)
Minnesota at Kansas City
(8:10 pm)
Oakland at LA Angels
(10:05 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact