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What categories would be best to emulate real baseball?

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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Feb 20, 2005 11:39 pm

CameronCrazy wrote:i think that the more catagories you have the better. it makes the league way more like actual baseball


Why?

Just because something gets counted doesn't mean it matters or makes sense.
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Postby Tavish » Sun Feb 20, 2005 11:45 pm

Without the Outs listing the best you might be able to do is add the outs value to each Hit type and then give the negative out score to each AB.
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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Mon Feb 21, 2005 12:51 am

Tavish wrote:Without the Outs listing the best you might be able to do is add the outs value to each Hit type and then give the negative out score to each AB.


That's not bad - what would you do for pitchers? Where do you get these values? Etc.
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Postby CameronCrazy » Mon Feb 21, 2005 12:56 am

per se barry bonds... if you only have 5 catagories that means he will not be as effective as if you had 8 offensive catagories
durham=we ghetto
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Postby HOOTIE » Mon Feb 21, 2005 1:14 am

CameronCrazy wrote:i think that the more catagories you have the better. it makes the league way more like actual baseball


Not really. I have never seen a point system that was accurate or balanced. Maybe one exists like TAVISH has mentioned. Only a few factors amount to scoring runs in real bb (about 90% of runs). The rest is just little incidental stuff. Bonds is underated unless you use oba instead of average, or use a 6x6. Personally, i think 5x5 roto does a pretty good mirror job of mlb. In a given year, using the real 8 playoff teams, using roto stats instead, 6-8 teams will still be the real playoff teams. The real difference between roto and real imo, is fantasy overates the sb. In real bb, it's has far less value.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Feb 21, 2005 1:17 am

CameronCrazy wrote:per se barry bonds... if you only have 5 catagories that means he will not be as effective as if you had 8 offensive catagories


That depends on what categories you use. Let's take that long list posted at the start. If you use the standard 5x5 and add HBP, SH, and GIDP to it, Bonds would certainly not be the top hitter.

But if you just used OPS, he'd be the number hitter by a huge margin. No one was within 30% of him last year. He could have gone 0 for September and still been leading in that category, he had such a huge lead.

So, it's not just the number of cats, but choosing the ones that truly relate to player value that is the key.
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Postby TheRock » Mon Feb 21, 2005 1:29 am

Yeah, I'm with GTWMA on this. OPS is in my mind "the" offensive category. Every new one you add, SB, HBP, whatever simply diminishes the importance of OPS.

I suppose if you wanted to get it completely right, you'd count everything, and determine what value to assign to every way that a player contributes. A weighted roto of some kind might work, but I think it might have to be points.
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Postby HOOTIE » Mon Feb 21, 2005 1:34 am

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:K/PA -- I would want something that punishes guys with high K totals since I hate "unproductive" outs. But then again I guess that's not very realistic since guys like Dunn, Bellhorn, and Sosa are still on major league rosters


Unproductive outs have very little significance at the major league level. A guy with 50 k's, versus one with 150 k's, will only create 2 more runs during a seaon. That's because the chance for dp increases. A major league team averages 800 runs a season. Taking a lineup of 9 guys with low k's, versus high in the previuos example, will in a best case scenerio only create 18 more as a team. What's important is how often you make outs, not how. People think well runners will advance, but 50% of abs are with the bases empty. The true benefit of not striking out, but hitting into a out, is the chance of a error. But at the major league level, errors aren't that rampant. Now in little league where every batted ball has a chance to be a error, then not striking out is huge.
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Postby daweasle » Mon Feb 21, 2005 6:50 am

only thing that sucks about having too many categories is then people will manipulate the categories - to take advantage of them...

I can demonstrate if you want but it would take a few minutes.....

basically it's the idea of punting several categories intentionally (predraft) and drafting all players intentionally to work towards winning the reamaining categories.

say for instance

you have:
hitters: R 2B 3B HR RBI SB AVG OBA SLUG
pitchers: W L SV HLD CG ERA WHIP Ks BBs

it's fairly easy to imagine tossing some cats in this league:
lets say first of all you said to your self - no speed - all high avg sluggers. that's going to probably win you - 2B HR RBI AVG OBA SLG, that's 6 of 10 bat categories, and you'll be competitive in runs and 3B.
Then with pitching you know right off that CG are rare, so you can see there's really only 6 pitching categories. (assuming you forget about CG) so now focus on who gets good whip, ERA, and low BBs? closers and setup guys. so focus your draft on closers and setup guys.
And what do you know - you could draft based on this strategy - go with all hitters the first 10-12 rounds - and still get some decent closers and lots of good setup men.
now hopefully those guys won't get you many losses - (even crappy closers only get 4-6 losses on the season - as opposed to medium starters who get 8-10)
so toss Ks and Ws, and win saves by getting 4 crappy closers, win holds with your next 4 picks with 4 good setup men, and boom your team is fine - and you don't have to waste any top 10 picks on pitchers. by round ten you'll have awesome power bats and win the league.

so if it were head to head each week you would win
about 6 or more of hitting cats...
2B, HR, RBI, AVG, OBA, SLG, maybe 3B, maybe runs

and you win 5 of the pitching categories...
Sv, hlds, ERA, WHIP nearly guaranteed - with all relievers you got a great corps.
L, BB - you can't get many losses or BBs with no starters and all your guys pitching 1-2 innings

so every week you win a close game like 10-8 or 11-7, but it would happen nearly every week.

It would be impossible for anyone to beat your team.

I played in a league with 13 hitting categories and 12 pitching categories about 2 years ago. I wiped the floor with the competition using similar strategy as outlined above.

that's the disadvantage to playing too many categories - is someone will take advantage of it......
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Postby daweasle » Mon Feb 21, 2005 7:15 am

if you're trying to emulate real baseball - try this: (3X3)
R, RBI, AVG
W, L, SV

I don't think it's any advantage to counting SB or HR cause if you score a run thru a HR or thru a SB - it's still only 1 run. HR hitters would still be valuable since they get a run and (at least one) RBI when they hit a HR, and guys like juan pierre and ichiro will still be valuable cause they help your AVG and score alot of runs.

same with pitchers - you get the win or not.....does it matter more when you win 6-0 or when you win 1-0 or when you win 9-8?
I think it still only counts as one win. why does ERA come into play?

It might sound boring - but real baseball can be boring if you look at it that way. it would certainly put an emphasis on the guys you do play.

and then make the rosters deep. I mean really deep.

Like lets say there's ten teams.
make each team play:
3 catchers (that's basically every starter for an MLB team)
5 middle infielders (that's fifty of top 60 2B and SS in all MLB)
5 corner infielders (that's fifty of top 60 1B and 3B in all MLB)
7 outfielders (that's 70 of top 90 outfielders)

you could vary it depending on how many teams you have - but try to get as many players as possible involved in the game - so that everyone isn't focusing on arod and soriano - but they have to look at guys like werth and inge and matt holliday as good picks a fifteenth round pick would be nearly as valuable as a 4th round pick.

and make those the starting positions - and give everyone enough room on the bench to hold the rest of the hitters - so if you want to pick someone up - you have to work out a trade. That's how it is in MLB - red sox want to pick up a better defensive 1B they have to call up the twins and trade for mientickiwitz.

not saying waivers are bad - I'm just saying in the major leagues - most players on waivers are barely worth having - (or not worth having) - everyone else is either on a major league roster or in someones farm system AAA

so when someone gets hurt - they have to work out a trade - they can't lose jeter on opening day and go out and pickup christian guzman off waivers. they have to make a trade or pull up someone from AAA. That's real baseball compared to fantasy.

As far as pitching - still assuming 10 teams
I'd say you should have at least 12 starting pitchers.
that makes it 120 of the best 150 starting pitchers in MLB.

you should require at least 80 innings pitched per week
(that's 5 innings average per starter plus 20 innings total relief)

otherwise someone could get a couple great closers and all middle relief specialists and never get any wins or losses but lots of saves....

so when you put together a league to simulate real baseball - I think it's more about the rules of the roster requirements and innings pitched requirements than it is about having lots of categories. fewer categories is fine.....you just have to thin out the talent pool by making everyone start players besides just the top ten at each position. with only ten guys at each postion it's like the all star game every day.......but with 50 of the top sixty gone - it would be much more like real baseball.
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